EURUSD

I surely don't mate. I have a few levels I am paying attention to... First things first there is some supply as we have seen around 122.40 - 122.60, daily piv is @122.90 that is my true goal but this doesn't mean I will hold it untiill then. If we go back to below 121.70, I will lose the hope for the trade and will close as well. I have now the luxury of having a good entry. I am watching more UJ and EU at the moment, if they stay where they are now, I can reach my target and maybe above 123.80s... All very possible...

EU dropping to 1.2851

No no, he has credit in my book being a cool Italian chap
How are you mate, still long I guess. I hope it will pay-out with some short squeze...

i have seen the table and it has every number on it ..........i lost it with that line

Girl, I made a bunch of pips today and I have made enough for a few bottles of Don Perignon, and now I'd like to flirt a little with you, you up for it...?

If you say so

when?

dr. doom, you do scale modeling there?

Hehehe, wait till I make a few too so we can have more bottles of bubbly. More fun that way

Agree - if it breaks through daily Sup.0.5 (122.19) and mid-BB (122.39), should be a nice ride north to the daily PP

I went long @ 122.00

Analysis please

No reply?

OK... Waiting then...

e-u triangle pattern

So here we are sitting on a pretty range bound EU for yet another day, gives us time to think about what will happen to the EU when the Cyprus situation gets a temporary resolution for good or bad.

First lets, reflect on the week.. there has been some neutral to +ve news for the dollar this week and a bucket load of negative data for the EU including Germany and plus of course Cyprus.

Q1: why has the EU not drifted much lower with the weeks news? lets come back to that in a minute

Q2: What might happen to EU if Cyprus gets a bank run or gets EU funding cut off or fails to come up with a plan that is accepted?
logically you would expect it to tank downwards.

Q3: What might happen if we get the opposite of Q2?
you might expect some limited upside? or maybe more, but fundamentally nothing will have changed, Cyprus is still in the crapper, EU is still in the crapper and we have had the bad data this week which seems to have been ignored so far. So you might argue that any lift would be muted and/or reversed.


Now lets consider what a sudden up move with the news might actually be made of.....

Option 1: loads of buyers with just enough sellers - this will give the best upward result as it is less likely to immediately collapse

Option 2: Some buyers with not enough sellers - this is when you will get jumps/gaps in price as offers disappear from the order flow and people are forced to pay a much higher price to buy. In this scenario you are over-paying for a long entry you could even be the first one to buy for say 50 pips or more.


Now think about what happens every other time in these kind of situations... yes that's right we spike, then either settle or reverse.

Do we think the spike would be up or down? I would expect up

Do we think the big positions will enter on the news or before it? Probably it is the big positions being established ready for the spike that have kept the price ranging and from falling any further this week = Q1.


So I suspect that no matter what the news we will get a lift and depending how solid it is we will then get either a pullback or a reverse below current levels.
The fact that it has failed to make a lower number so far this week suggests position building.

I could be completely wrong of course but with only one trade open I have time to speculate


and I should add that if it comes out over the weekend it will make a mess of retail positions - think carefully before holding over the weekend - I will not be.

LOL, is that Attila's Plunger you have there??

Q3: What might happen if we get the opposite of Q2?
you might expect some limited upside? or maybe more, but fundamentally nothing will have changed, Cyprus is still in the crapper, EU is still in the crapper and we have had the bad data this week which seems to have been ignored so far. So you might argue that any lift would be muted and/or reversed.

I think that his a is really good question! Anybody got some clever comments on it???

Rather intriguing. Thank you.

122.40

Great piece of advice.