Sonic R. System

Only sometime after the world completes the DST changeover. This takes three week from start to finish this time of the year.

AU:

Still bullish. The USD release did nothing to daunt this. Only that the MMs used the day to stall progress for the purpose of encouraging shorts to sign up so the MMs could add longs. Clear to see PA holds at significant SR while the MMs build long. Target is within two days of average range and there are three days left in the week. Plenty of time to complete this week. Note RWH is up there.

-tah

EU:

Formation is officially in-play now with 650ish pips to go.

-tah

UCad:

Told cha! PA has broken up thru the Bull Flag and the previous alert post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post6526309) of the Sonic R. long setup was the "real deal". RWH should be a logical target area.



-tah

My Posting of "Comments":

To All Sonicers,

Those of you that actively read and catch-up with this thread know that I frequently post comments. You also know that sometimes they are vindicated and sometimes they are not. I hope you understand why I take the time to post them when I myself know they will not always be on target.

When I first started trading I absorbed all comments from others that I perceived as apparently knowing what they were doing. In the final analysis, I learned to rank such comments for what they were; opinions and speculations. Yet, I continued to read them. Why? I guess I realized that even if the bias behind any comment were to prove out incorrect in the near term, the subject of the comment could still serve to stimulate my own thought processes as to the sundry possibilities for future PA, possibilities that I myself might never have thought of. And though maybe not to be born out as on target this next time, maybe such a possibility will be on target at another time. And over time I have come to "see" all the kinds of "outcomes" that the Market Manipulators (MMs) can serve up under a variety of conditions.

The benefit is obvious. One learns that trading is not a straight forward, easy and simple process towards making money. At any time the price can move in either direction, and this is true regardless of larger "influences" that do continue to remain in "standby" to be "re-activated" after the local PA gyrations by the MMs are overwith. The realization of all of this helps to keep one "on-track" during those times the MMs are working hard to throw traders off the train!

So, I post comments to point out a point of view. It might turn out to be correct, but it might not. In either case, maybe it opens the mind to the way the MMs work the market, and if not correct this time, maybe it will be a possibility you will think of the next time; one that does turn out to be correct.

Ok, now back to basics. Everyday that the MMs go to work it is with the intent of making profits, and since not everyone gets to be profitable as the result of whatever the MMs do, it is clear they intend to take as much money from everyone else as is possible via whatever price manipulations they engage in. Hence the clear instruction, "Trade what you see." This is also quoted as "Trade what you see, not what you believe, hope and pray for!" This gets to the issue. If you have a longer term bias and yet "today" on M15 it appears the MMs are taking the price opposite, should you pay attention more to your longer term bias, or what the MMs are doing? Tough decision. Well, not really. As we Sonicers trade primarily on the M15, which is a very short term trading chart, it is more logical to trade "...what the market gives...", even if contrary to your longer term bias. Time and again, such MM counter-trend or counter pattern price manipulations turn out to be for enough pips that it is a shame for the move not to be traded! Yes, it demands a more watchful eye be kept on what is happening. A hard SL? A mental SL? Your decision, however, if you make quick action to exit if price does not continue to give you confidence, even a few pips profit is good; it pays the spread on the next trade.

Conclusion? Yes. I post comments to help others overall by expanding the realm of thought. In no way do I intend such comments to take precedence over "Trade what you see." The market is a continuous process of unpredicable up and down movement of price, primarily manipulated by the MMs and for the purpose taking money from others. Longer term patterns and trends not withstanding, the daily price action can be "unto a world of its own", contrary and arbitrary, but nevertheless tradeable profitably.

Keep your charts clean, your mind expansive and your keystrokes responsive.

Good trading to all Sonicers,
-tah

MMs Current Bearish Price Manipulation of EU:

Sonicers, I have previously stated that there are times late in the day (espcially on some Fridays) that the MMs go to work repositioning price to where they prefer it to be (read that as meaning so they can make more profits). In this case, late in the day the MMs pumped the price upwards. And there is high volume with this pump, most of it being after the high was attained (check your M1 chart). This is a concrete sign the MMs are bearish on EU. They continue to seek to add shorts, and at whatever higher prices they can manipulate the price to, especially whenever it costs them the least to put on the price manipulations to get higher prices.

Note that this price manipulation took the price above the whole number. That is where the MMs prefer to build short positions. Also keep in mind that the H&S formation has gone into play today (see numerous previous posts on this)!

-tah

GU Comment, Caution! Beware!:

The MMs have been content for several days now to not put on either a Mark Up or a Mark Down drive. And tomorrow there are no less than three GBP high impact releases. Coincidence? Probably not. Probably the MMs have been content to use the intervening time to quielty build whichever side position they are most confident with. Well, "confident" is not really the right word because it conveys the idea that the MMs don't know for sure what their next move will be, Mark Up or Mark Down. And they know.

My bet is on a Mark Up move, based on the wacking GU has taken (see Daily chart) and the fact that my analysis of price/volume of the pair EG tells me the MMs are bears on EG. If they are bears, either they expect the euro to weaken or the pound to strengthen, or both. Since GU is so "oversold" there is the growing possibility the MMs will start to focus on it next. GU has plenty room to move up and the MMs won't have to rush EU down that way.

The point here is that with multiple GBP high impact releases coming tomorrow, this is a significant opportunity for the MMs to start something, anything! It could be up or down. It could be a whipsaw, ending going up or down. It could even be a multiple whipsaw. Yes, there are times the MMs run the price 100ish pips three times, first starting in either direction they prefer! So, tomorrow could be a big day for GU, and maybe a day to stand aside and let the feather fly. There could be excessive risk to trading GU at this time, no matter if you are guaranteed you are right about direction!

The stew is further thickened with a pending inverted H&S! The MMs won't have as much trouble completing the Mark Up phase, getting the price up to their planned Distribution Phase area to take profits, what with an in-play H&S formation! So, you can see why the MMs might end their Accumulation phase with some wild PA swinging to sucker in both side traders and then take them all out to use that created liquidity to get their own additional long orders filled!

If the MMs start moving the price tomorrow, then there will be lots of upcoming opportunities to trade GU with a lot less risk.

-tah

AU:

A Sonic R. long setup. No releases are due today to affect this. The USD FOMC is too late in the day, so it will likely affect PA tomorrow. FO/LO might pull this back a bit, but might not. This is before the LS, true. However this has been ranging for days and everything else about the setup is good, including that the Dragon looks about to cross up thru the Trend Line.

-tah

Word Out of London on GU:

The first thing the London MMs did was to put the price right back down into its previous range, and after that.......they poured on the trades! When asked by a market reporter if they were bulls, they flately denied it and pointed to the fact that the price had gone down!

-tah

Word Out of London on GU, Followup:

In a hastily reconvened interview, the reported asked the London MMs wasn't it true they preferred to establish long positions below whole numbers? The spokeperson for the MMs seemed hesitant but finally replied, "Would you enter a long trade if price was showing signs of weakening?"

-tah

GU Comment, A "Beware!" Reminder:

And here we see the MMs aggressively torpedoing the price to hit pending stops on longs and to trigger into the market pending short orders, both actions creating the market liquidity that the MMs need in order to get their own whopping long orders filled where they have them down below the half number this time. Without doubt, the most trading is being done at the current manipulated lows below the half number. This is a clear sign the MMs are bullish on GU.

This does not mean these same MMs, or others later, won't manipulate the price even lower. What it does mean is these MMs are loading up with longs right here.

Under normal circumstances, the way to use this information would be to stalk for an M15 Sonic R. long setup. But the circumstances surrounding GU are anything but normal (see earlier "Caution" post), so standing aside today might be best.

-tah

UJ Comment:

Another Bear Flag has been raised. So, in case the significance of the first one was missed...... Note that the London MMs are hiking the price, which is consistent with building a short position ahead of another drop.

-tah

UCad Comment:

Price has been pulled down slightly so far today, consistent with MMs looking to add longs. On H1 it appears as nothing more than a pullback to "retest" the Bull Flag trendline. Of course, there is no real "testing". That is just a non-descriptive word that sails and in used instead of telling the truth. The MMs have manipulated the price back to where they are building positions or adding to existing positions, in this case longs. But, if the trading manuals told us the truth behind the market's quaint terminology, it might make it less easy for the market to take our monies.

-tah

EG: Added short trade #2, a Scout based on premise MMs are bullish GBP and bearish the euro, and that the MMs have hiked the price back up to previous high consolidation area (adding more shorts).

London Market Manipulators Loaded Up With Longs:

Told cha! They simply took the price below the lower half number and added a shitload of longs, waited for the GBP high impact releases to start coming in, and rammed the price right back up and more, to start building in their profits!

Don't forget, the fireworks today are not over with! So far this remains in it's range, but an inverted H&S could come into play. And now that the MMs have shown their long bias and with a possible inverted H&S formation coming, more folks will start going long. This might tempt the MMs to engage their whipsawing strategy, in any of many forms, to wipe out as many other traders as possible before the real run begins. This might occur in conjunction with the final GBP high impact release later.

-tah

Bravo TAH, nice insights as always Don't tell me you have inside info..

This time I saw the same thing, so your teaching has not gone waisted. I waited price to come down yesterday and had my pending orders filled today.

Thank You very much Professor TAH for your effort to help us new traders. I appreciate your efforts much!

Now that you are in, watch out for possible whipsawing.

-tah

In fact I'm thinking would MMs take the price low again to load up more longs... Still keeping my pending buy limit on. Only question for myself is, should I take profit from open trades now, or let them run higher? I remember saying that greed is what makes a trader fail...

Update on UCad Long Yesterday:

The MMs have just executed a very nice pullback of yesterday's Sonic R. long trade. Note that the pullback is to below the half number. We know by now that MMs prefer to build/add longs below whole and half numbers. If you are doubtful this is still a long trade, just drop to M1 and witness the high concentrated volumes coming in with price below the half number.

I am not telling anyone to do this, but consider where the price is. It is now at an obvious historical S&R area. If you are confident with the long trade, or not in it, this might be a place to consider adding or joining up. We never trade on volume alone. We cannot know for sure how low the MMs might take it! Using Sonic R. on M1, or more conservatively using M5 might help with entry.

BTW, as I wrote this, price reached the FR 50% level.

-tah