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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #66,421
  • Mar 18, 2013 4:51am Mar 18, 2013 4:51am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
BTW I have held shorts from 1.21xx when the Euro was 1.37xx -1600 pips and no MC.
Hey EuroTraderJD...
I am not so patient, actually I'd be a "patient in hospital with a heart attack" as my account would be blown some 20 times or more

But seriously...
As you ones described your amazing money management technique, while you kept THIS short you were investing only longs, so your short position was working as a hedge for any opened LONGs. And that makes sense... your opened positions were balanced.
I am mentioning this as some people might think you opened short in June 2012 and kept this running against you for a year doing nothing but waiting

-
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #66,422
  • Mar 18, 2013 6:57am Mar 18, 2013 6:57am
Quoting halkins
Hey EuroTraderJD...
I am not so patient, actually I'd be a "patient in hospital with a heart attack" as my account would be blown some 20 times or more

But seriously...
As you ones described your amazing money management technique, while you kept THIS short you were investing only longs, so your short position was working as a hedge for any opened LONGs. And that makes sense... your opened positions were balanced.
I am mentioning this as some people might think you opened short in June 2012 and kept this running against you for a year...
Hey Brother Halkins

LOL you made me bust a gut with that one.

Patence wasnt a virtue with me either but like a muscle I had to exercise it. Sometimes I still faulter but I am way better. Ms Market makes you rise above if you want to run with her...

You are correct I kept this and 24 other shorts but in the mean time I have been shorting at higher prices and getting out with a profit until my DD circuit breaker got hit. Then I stopped on the short side for a bit until the DD dropped.

I also made many long trades all profitable.

I got a lot of static from some A**holes in the EURUSD forum (rough crowd over there) but to me they are narrow minded.

Its all good. I focused on MM because no matter what indos or FA I used I was always getting stopped out and my account growth was slow at best. Once I discovered how the banksters trade (opposing pyramids) and I built my MM around that I never looked back.

I said many times my way of trading isnt for everyone but works for me.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,423
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm
Hello all,
this is my updated view on the Euro.

The gap down in the morning due to news, coming from Cyprus, brought price right into that 1.2900 area where I anticipate long participation since a few weeks now. A few people think today's price action is going to change the Euro weekly patterns (those very same people could have their head handed over to them if they traded the news today), but the pattern will only change if price moves below the 1.2715 level. I am talking about swing trades here (those who read my post know that's my trading style).

Some people remain objective in the face of news and the emotions they bring about. I will keep trading my method that has served me nicely and I believe it will keep doing so. I am living for a planned trip abroad so I will leave my longer-term view on FF. I will return on April the 7th and will resume posting after that. I know some people don't like my style of analysis and trading (of course, could it be different? We are all different) and I am not going to argue with them. I write for those who want to have access to a slightly different read of the markets to entertain or help complement their own analysis.

Hereunder the chart and the analysis:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363624976

The scenarios I see are the following:

Scenario 1. This is the original scenario which is still up and running, besides yesterday's Cyprus news. This is the highest probability scenario.I believe the market knew already what was happening in Cyprus since a few weeks and this was reflected in price. I am more prone to believe that price has already discounted this, rather than the opposite. If this news was truly affecting the Euro currency, we would have probably seen price continue lower in the morning instead of reversing. Also Euro price tested the 200-day SMA, watched by a lot of retail traders. We have seen the Euro rally in the face of the hardest times in Europe in the last 3-4 years. Nothing to be surprised of. Of course, anything can happen, but I will stick to the long weekly pattern my method is giving me, until that pattern is invalidated. Swing targets in the 1.4090-1.4100 area.

Scenario 2. Should price keep moving lower and through the 1.2715 level (lower probability), I would then anticipate price moving down into the next long level participated by Program Trading, which is 1.2650. Here two different scenarios could open up: 2a and 2b.

Scenario 2a. Price could find participation into the next level of participation on the downside at the 1.3180 area; at this stage 2 more scenario would open up (2a,1 and 2a,2, see below)

Scenario 2b. Price could just keep moving lower and below 1.2515 a retest of 1.2140 would be possible.

Scenario 2a,1. Once at 1.3180, price could just continue higher above 1.3320; or

Scenario 2a,2. Once at 1.3180, price could continue lower towards its first target at the 1.24 area.

Good luck to you all and see you soon.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #66,424
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:57pm Mar 18, 2013 12:57pm
View on the market plus quick chart;

Inserted Video
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #66,425
  • Mar 18, 2013 2:37pm Mar 18, 2013 2:37pm
Quoting mangaradja
let's see London"s open
Attachment
2884 scalp to 2907
done with scalps
  • #66,426
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:21pm Mar 19, 2013 6:21pm
Hello calling Malta ... Where have all the Flowers gone ? Where has all the Ladies and Gentleman gone ?

Tomorrow is Central Bank day and the FED will release a statement and talk about whatever suits their agenda. Whatever they say watch what the market decides.

They now stand naked in front of the World and the IMF and ECB had their plan slapped down by the Russians and Cyprus.

Game on and now we wait on Italy and Cyprus and more QE until INFIINITY and the Russians will soon retaliate.

Read WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Good evening everyone.

CM
  • #66,427
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:24pm Mar 19, 2013 6:24pm
how will this situation affect gold and eu?

Quoting CurrencyMan
Hello calling Malta ... Where have all the Flowers gone ? Where has all the Ladies and Gentleman gone ?

Tomorrow is Central Bank day and the FED will release a statement and talk about whatever suits their agenda. Whatever they say watch what the market decides.

They now stand naked in front of the World and the IMF and ECB had their plan slapped down by the Russians and Cyprus.

Game on and now we wait on Italy and Cyprus and more QE until INFIINITY and the Russians will soon retaliate.

Read WWW.JSMINESET.COM...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #66,428
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:26pm Mar 19, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting gnomoneey
how will this situation affect gold and eu?
Gold up? EU down? LoL
  • #66,429
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:40pm Mar 19, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
Gold up? EU down? LoL

thanks k3nshinz3139
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #66,430
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:46pm Mar 19, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
Gold up? EU down? LoL
That is the correct answer. Please read Jim Sinclair. Enjoy the Voucher.

We will have a race to the bottom with EURO, YEN and the US Dollar now in the race against Gold.

And the Winner will be Gold with the track record set by 5000 Years of History.

The Roman Empire and The British Empire and The German Empire and soon The American Empire.

Next UP China and Russia

These are my personal opinions backed by HISTORY.

Gold and Silver are no persons DEBT and cannot be printed out of thin air by the CLICK of a mouse.

Good Evening All
  • #66,431
  • Mar 19, 2013 8:49pm Mar 19, 2013 8:49pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
That is the correct answer. Please read Jim Sinclair. Enjoy the Voucher.

We will have a race to the bottom with EURO, YEN and the US Dollar now in the race against Gold.

And the Winner will be Gold with the track record set by 5000 Years of History.

The Roman Empire and The British Empire and The German Empire and soon The American Empire.

Next UP China and Russia

These are my personal opinions backed by HISTORY.

Gold and Silver are no persons DEBT and cannot be printed out of thin air by the CLICK of a mouse.

Good Evening All
I like this quote "Gold and Silver are no persons DEBT and cannot be printed out of thin air by the CLICK of a mouse".

Good Evening CM
  • #66,432
  • Mar 20, 2013 5:47am Mar 20, 2013 5:47am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Closed out my short which is a testament to MM and patience +110 pips. On Friday I was -74 pips. Today CHACHINGO! It pays to trade like a bankster.

BTW I have held shorts from 1.21xx when the Euro was 1.37xx -1600 pips and no MC.
hi JD,
Thanks for sharing your MM system. Very interesting. I have been giving it a go and so far no realised losses. Some trades go further underwater than I would have previously accepted but nearly all of them recover within a day or two. I only have one trade that's still underwater (long @ 1.2960), and I'm confident that I will be able to close it without loss soon enough.

I'm taking the attitude that a loss only occurs when I choose for it to be loss. Otherwise, it's just a certain amount of my capital that's tied up for a while.
My broker allows for 30% leverage over the weekend, so for me, my max DD point is 20% - 25% leverage in use. I'm adjusting my position sizing depending on where the price is within the channel. That is, my position size depends on the likelihood of the position recovering if the trade signal turns out to be false. I don't have a precise formula for that yet.

Do you have a certain strategy to recovering losing trades? For example, assuming that the original reason for taking the trade is no longer valid, do you just set the TP level on the trade to break-even so that it closes at the earliest non-loss opportunity?

What about your shorts from 1.21xx? Those have been underwater since last summer, or have you managed to receover them? By, for example, opening another short at a higher price (according to your trading system), merging that with your underwater short and closing when the average price reaches BE.
  • #66,433
  • Mar 20, 2013 8:34am Mar 20, 2013 8:34am
Quoting lux_interior
hi JD,
Thanks for sharing your MM system. Very interesting.
Thank you it is an honor to share my experiences with you and everyone else who will lend me an ear to hear an alternative way of trading.

Quoting lux_interior
I have been giving it a go and so far no realised losses. Some trades go further underwater than I would have previously accepted but nearly all of them recover within a day or two. I only have one trade that's still underwater (long @ 1.2960), and I'm confident that I will be able to close it without loss soon enough.

You are experiencing what the pyramid method does and what another trader told me yesterday. He was pleasantly surprised.

HOWEVER there are several parts to this theory. If you are not going to use SL then you MUST trade in small position sizes. If you also space the open positions out (no concentration or “price saturation”) this will help minimize the DD. The only way I could do this successfully was to write a program and figure out the algorithm.

There is that nasty word again DD. Nothing is life is free except the air we breath so this is the side effect. Having a sub account in the opposite bias (which is the opposing pyramid) helps tremendously with dealing with the mental aspect of a DD. If you use OANDA like I do you can easily set up a sub account for the same pair and transfer cash back in forth between them.

Due to the random walk theory of the markets prices due gyrate in a broad price range just like they do in a small TF. If you are patient you will be rewarded if you use smart MM. and trade with the trend.

Quoting lux_interior
I'm taking the attitude that a loss only occurs when I choose for it to be loss. Otherwise, it's just a certain amount of my capital that's tied up for a while.
AMEN. If that money was in the bank how much return would you get? Yea thanks to Central Banks not much. And if money was placed into equities it’s a crap shoot (APPL) that it will provide constant risk free returns. (there is no such thing as risk free)

Quoting lux_interior
My broker allows for 30% leverage over the weekend, so for me, my max DD point is 20% - 25% leverage in use. I'm adjusting my position sizing depending on where the price is within the channel. That is, my position size depends on the likelihood of the position recovering if the trade signal turns out to be false. I don't have a precise formula for that yet.
You are getting the hang of it. VERY GOOD! I would go beyond channel perspective and use a monthly chart. For me I chose the range from 1.20 -1.40 for the Euro. For the vast majority of years it has traded in this range. Having a precise formula that works for you takes time. It took me several years and thousands and thousands of dollars to figure out.

Quoting lux_interior
Do you have a certain strategy to recovering losing trades? For example, assuming that the original reason for taking the trade is no longer valid, do you just set the TP level on the trade to break-even so that it closes at the earliest non-loss opportunity?
I never set a TP at BE. At a minimum its BE +2 and I do so manually watching the indos and PA. The reason is there could be some slight slippage which may make this position a loser. I also scalp the 10 min chart so I try to get in and out. This also minimizes my risk. Time exposure to the market is RISK. Very few traders realize this until a winner becomes a loser.


Quoting lux_interior
What about your shorts from 1.21xx? Those have been underwater since last summer, or have you managed to receover them? By, for example, opening another short at a higher price (according to your trading system), merging that with your underwater short and closing when the average price reaches BE.
Yes I still have them but have been going long (in sub account) and short (at higher prices) over the entire range. There is a carry charge but I more than make up for it everyday with scalping wins. ITS BETTER THAN A CERTAIN LOSS by using SL.

Some have said your position sizes are small you don’t make big money. Well HELLO my mantra is “It’s a walk to wealth not a race to riches (ruin). How many of us take a job work 20, 30, 40 even 50 years just to retire with a meager savings and maybe a retirement account. If that approach and time dedication was placed into their trading they would be able to retire MUCH sooner with MUCH more money. Slow and steady wins the race.

Still I will have doubters and that’s OK. Not everyone will love me.


BTW the price is at your 1.2960 congrats!
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,434
  • Mar 20, 2013 9:04am Mar 20, 2013 9:04am
I have to apologize for the delay. It is rare I go to my profile page so I would like to take the time to thank all of those who vouched for me. I am DEEPLY humbled by those whom I respect who gave me some "street cred". If its OK I would like to recognize them now.

rekon67, CurrencyMan, stevewalker, Ken A, PipTrapper, 100PipsADay, drzakir123, Mr. Scott

Again thank you all! If I was a woman I would be moved to tears....
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,435
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:11am Mar 20, 2013 10:11am
"AMEN. If that money was in the bank how much return would you get? Yea thanks to Central Banks not much. And if money was placed into equities it’s a crap shoot (APPL) that it will provide constant risk free returns. (there is no such thing as risk free)"

EuroTraderJD, This and the rest of the post is great! What a happy surprise to read this informative post when I logged in. Thank you!
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #66,436
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:12am Mar 20, 2013 10:12am
You are welcome my FX Brother. All I do is tell what I know.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,437
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:15am Mar 20, 2013 10:15am
soo... whats next? 2850 or 3050
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #66,438
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:19am Mar 20, 2013 10:19am
My two cents; Price is consolidating to a weekly mean between 2920-2970. We'll get the sufficient volume to move elsewhere after the FOMC statement.

(If this is a poor suggestion, please correct me)

Edit: by "Weekly mean" I mean this week. You can see it on an H1 chart (Not a weekly chart!)
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #66,439
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:48am Mar 20, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Vtmn
soo... whats next? 2850 or 3050
Maybe a little of both. Big Ben brings the volatility to town.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,440
  • Mar 20, 2013 10:48am Mar 20, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
My two cents; Price is consolidating to a weekly mean between 2920-2970. We'll get the sufficient volume to move elsewhere after the FOMC statement.

(If this is a poor suggestion, please correct me)

Edit: by "Weekly mean" I mean this week. You can see it on an H1 chart (Not a weekly chart!)
Yes you are correct.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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