Disliked@ Max
Will you still be chasing shorts for EJ mate today? I am quite surprised we moved up without spending time around 121.00s And now we are at a semi-important level which can extend to 125.00s and above very easily. How do you see that...?Ignored
lets look at what we have then.....
Daily retracement of last swing up still in play and still in the primary ABC pattern which has completed less than 38%. this suggests a probability of a lower move to 117.xx to 114.xx zone so long as wB holds up 126.0x
the alternative trend option is an incomplete five wave sequence which targets 129.xx to 133.xx zone.
Note that both of these options can come true with a move lower on ABC to make a lower w4 in the five wave trend.
Hourly if you look at the hourly you will see that it almost touched 61.8% retrace of the move up from 118.xx to 126.xx which added weight yesterday to the rise. This gives it the open probability to move in either direction on this TF either to test high as correction complete or test low as continuance.
EDIT: note also how it has rejected the up move so far around the base of prices located near the 23% line 124.3x, this may give weight to an intraday long if breached.
In summary I think we are in mid-water here waiting to see the next direction. I still favour down to complete a bigger correction on the daily before a potential continuance higher above wB. Therefore on the intraday either direction should be okay to trade until it makes a clearer signal but I will stand aside from longs myself.
A little further out bear in mind though that there is a lot of semi-official chatter about more easing at BOJ April meeting which will probably trigger the next big up move before the meeting as positions are taken in expectation with follow through on confirmation.
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