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Why do Newbies Lose?

  • #61
  • Mar 13, 2013 8:47am Mar 13, 2013 8:47am
Quoting tony_montana
As a newbie...how long did it take you to wipe out your first account?
My first live was gone in less than a week and followed by at least 20ish demo accounts and 5,6 live accounts.
This is the regular process a newbie has to go through.
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #62
  • Mar 13, 2013 11:01am Mar 13, 2013 11:01am
Quoting Chi
My first live was gone in less than a week and followed by at least 20ish demo accounts and 5,6 live accounts.
This is the regular process a newbie has to go through.
Sadly yes ... but experience has to be taken from something.

We all started as a newbie
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #63
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:31am Mar 18, 2013 10:31am
Quoting rooicol
Hi all,

Just wondering what exactly do newbies do to lose?

I mean when you open a trade, regardless of any analysis you do, you are issued a 50:50 chance of winning/losing, so how do you lose overtime?

Well, i guess the first thing is trading cost, every trade you make it will cost you about 3 pips, so if a newbie makes 100 trades, 50 wins and 50 losses of equal size, they will end up down 300 pips. I think newbies have a tendency to make many many trades in a short period of time, the market rise a few pips and they buy, the market falls a...

Thank you Rooicol for saying these so straight and so clearly. I am a Newbie and surely will try not to do what you have just mentioned!But you did not mention what a Newbie should do at the staring in his/her trading career!!
  • #64
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:56am Mar 18, 2013 11:56am
Quoting rooicol
Hi all,

Just wondering what exactly do newbies do to lose?

I mean when you open a trade, regardless of any analysis you do, you are issued a 50:50 chance of winning/losing, so how do you lose overtime?

Well, i guess the first thing is trading cost, every trade you make it will cost you about 3 pips, so if a newbie makes 100 trades, 50 wins and 50 losses of equal size, they will end up down 300 pips. I think newbies have a tendency to make many many trades in a short period of time, the market rise a few pips and they buy, the market falls a...
Yes, because it is so excited that it is hard to control oneself from trading seeing the screen and the movements...
  • #65
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:15am Mar 19, 2013 3:15am
The right thing for most traders is to just stop digging and walk away and you'll be heading in the right direction and don't look back.
  • #66
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:20am Mar 19, 2013 3:20am
Quoting jgray110
The right thing for most traders is to just stop digging and walk away and you'll be heading in the right direction and don't look back.
But for those who put in the years of effort in the learning curve it's completely worth it. Though if anybody thinks they can just buy a forex kit or get some trading signals and be successful though they have another thing coming....more specifically a margin call. Whether they recover and learn from that or not is one of the many tests of one's perseverance and motivation.

I never thought learning to trade would be as difficult as it's turned out to be. The biggest problem is sifting through all the information out there and sorting what's real and what's bull - easier said than done.
  • #67
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:47am Mar 19, 2013 3:47am
Quoting Kanzler
But for those who put in the years of effort in the learning curve it's completely worth it. Though if anybody thinks they can just buy a forex kit or get some trading signals and be successful though they have another thing coming....more specifically a margin call. Whether they recover and learn from that or not is one of the many tests of one's perseverance and motivation.

I never thought learning to trade would be as difficult as it's turned out to be. The biggest problem is sifting through all the information out there and sorting...
You probably wonīt make it.
  • #68
  • Mar 19, 2013 3:57am Mar 19, 2013 3:57am
Quoting rooicol
Hi all,

Just wondering what exactly do newbies do to lose?
Anyone care to share?
They lose because most of them don't want to work.
Gone to a better place
  • #69
  • Mar 19, 2013 4:06am Mar 19, 2013 4:06am
Quoting Myo
You probably wonīt make it.
The odds weren't in my favor but I strongly believe I already have. It's only a matter of doing this for a few months to build confidence before I apply my real hard earned capital.
  • #70
  • Mar 19, 2013 4:18am Mar 19, 2013 4:18am
Quoting Kanzler
The odds weren't in my favor but I strongly believe I already have. It's only a matter of doing this for a few months to build confidence before I apply my real hard earned capital.
Iīm just saying donīt waste too much time with trying to learn this daytrading-stuff. I read youīve put in two years already and thatīs a lot without something to show. Donīt damage your CV too much, daytrading is not a career. Really, just trying to help - there are some really deluded people here and itīs easy to get suckered in - I speak from experience.
  • #71
  • Mar 19, 2013 4:39am Mar 19, 2013 4:39am
Quoting Myo
Iīm just saying donīt waste too much time with trying to learn this daytrading-stuff. I read youīve put in two years already and thatīs a lot without something to show. Donīt damage your CV too much, daytrading is not a career. Really, just trying to help - there are some really deluded people here and itīs easy to get suckered in - I speak from experience.
Oh I appreciate it, and I think your advice is sound. However, I think I should tell you a little about myself to give you the full picture. Two years is a little misleading. My first encounter with speculation was in bitcoin. Had my ass handed to me after I got greedy but it whetted my appetite. Learned about the basic stuff, went through babypips' school, etc. Did the whole fibonacci, trendline traditional TA route and ended up gradually losing interest because of the frustration. My skill in programming allowed me to backtest all kinds of scenarios and they were all disappointing.

I'm not sure what got me back into things, but some time later I took another look at this money trap. I came across various ideas that were a little different...Trader Dante's material from another forum and then BillyRayValentine's "No Brainer Trades" thread here. Didn't have a lot of success with that but I ended up becoming convinced that there was something to it anyway, with buying near low spikes and vice versa. Finally I came across the concept that tied so many loose ends together - supply and demand. The results I've had from adopting this school of thought are nothing less than fascinating....and you start to really understand price action by practicing it. I pulled 8R from the market today with almost pin point accuracy on my entries. Tight stops buying into drops and selling into rallies. Obviously you don't win every trade and typically I have a few losers before I get my winner, but the returns so far have been good. It would be a shock to me if that were random chance, but for the sake of caution I've committed myself to practicing this for several months of profitable returns so I can build my confidence....trading live and facing the drawdown is a lot easier if you know what you're doing has a real edge. And if it turns out I am being "fooled by randomness", that will start to show.
  • #72
  • Mar 19, 2013 4:49am Mar 19, 2013 4:49am
Quoting Kanzler
Oh I appreciate it, and I think your advice is sound. However, I think I should tell you a little about myself to give you the full picture. Two years is a little misleading. My first encounter with speculation was in bitcoin. Had my ass handed to me after I got greedy but it whetted my appetite. Learned about the basic stuff, went through babypips' school, etc. Did the whole fibonacci, trendline traditional TA route and ended up gradually losing interest because of the frustration. My skill in programming allowed me to backtest all kinds of scenarios...
Word on trade2win is, that dante admitted in is chatroom that he has a hard time making money from the methods he teaches. He went back to work at Futex, didnīt he? Heīs on this board, we could ask him that. Word is also, that James16 himself showed up in a chatroom there, made 14 livecalls of which 13 failed - lol. I donīt know if thatīs true but itīs a funny story nevertheless. Anyway, if youīre making money, I wouldnīt convince you anyway so good luck!
  • #73
  • Mar 19, 2013 5:01am Mar 19, 2013 5:01am
Quoting Myo
Word on trade2win is, that dante admitted in is chatroom that he has a hard time making money from the methods he teaches. He went back to work at Futex, didnīt he? Heīs on this board, we could ask him that. Word is also, that James16 himself showed up in a chatroom there, made 14 livecalls of which 13 failed - lol. I donīt know if thatīs true but itīs a funny story nevertheless. Anyway, if youīre making money, I wouldnīt convince you anyway so good luck!
Don't know what dante is up to, but I wouldn't be surprised if that were true. I look at it as a stepping stone though....you didn't fail, you just found another way that didn't work. As far as James16 goes, I've never found his material to be that useful. My experience is that there is no, or perhaps very little, edge to be found in how bars are painted by themselves. In any case I hesitate to trash talk him as many respect the man but I have a hard time believing many of his claims. Plus, who sells forum access for thousands of dollars if you're making bank trading? Charging to teach is always a red flag, no matter what argument one comes up with for it.

As said we'll just see how the next few months of demoing turn out and whether the results turn out to be statistically significant....we all have to make this journey ourselves. You do bring up an excellent point though that it shouldn't consume a person, it's very easy to turn into a gambling addict without realizing it. I would suspect that a large number of users here are in fact just that.

Anyway I'm off to bed, should have done that more than an hour ago. Best wishes for your trades.
  • #74
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:13am Mar 19, 2013 6:13am
My stab at this.

Remember , every next trade has only 50% chance of winning no matter what strategy you use. It could be j16, breakout..etc. Most people some how think that just because a pin bar worked last time , it will work this time also. Hence they risk more than required and guess what happens..

James16 teach PA , which is better than most indicators out there, but it still has the same chances as any other indicator based system. Although in the long run j16 trades may give you a slight edge if applied correctly. But by no means it is better than other methods out there. So don't bet it all on PA.

Same goes for any kind of pattern based method/strategy.

Most important thing is Risk. Most newbies even if given the best working strategy will lose because they have no clue about risk/money management. Risk affects your psychology if not managed properly. This is where all emotions come from. Most newbies taken on more risk than required ALL the time.

Anyways nothing new here. i have only said what was said before. The real issue is in applying these risk/money management principles, which most never do. They always look at Technical analysis for the holy grail and they never find it.
  • #75
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:18am Mar 19, 2013 6:18am
Kanzler, I sent you a pm with a link. Did you receive it?
Gone to a better place
  • #76
  • Mar 19, 2013 6:31am Mar 19, 2013 6:31am
Quoting zamfir
Most important thing is Risk.
The risk isn't involved in the profitability of your trading. This is just the element which will define how much you will gain or loose.

The most important thing is how you manage your trade once opened.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #77
  • Mar 19, 2013 7:27am Mar 19, 2013 7:27am
Quoting FerruFx
The risk isn't involved in the profitability of your trading. This is just the element which will define how much you will gain or loose.

The most important thing is how you manage your trade once opened.

Everyone opens a trade and expect to hit the target. But then you cannot control the target ..right.

So what can you control once you open a trade?

we could discuss what is right and wrong. I m not here to debate on any topic. All i m saying is risk is more important than your analysis. However that doesn't mean you don't analyze or don't give it due importance.It has its place. Risk is important because it affects your emotions once your open your trades after your analysis.

if you want emotion free trading. try reducing your risk.

of course once you open a trade , your primary objective again is to reduce your risk. How you do it is up to you.

So yes..in my opinion ,Risk and Risk management is still the most important thing in this uncertain business. you don't have to agree with me.
  • #78
  • Mar 19, 2013 8:13am Mar 19, 2013 8:13am
Quoting zamfir
if you want emotion free trading. try reducing your risk.

of course once you open a trade , your primary objective again is to reduce your risk. How you do it is up to you.
The risk is defined before opening a trade. Once opened, yes the risk is only emotional.

Reducing the risk of an opened position is part of what I mentioned in my previous post: trade management.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #79
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:32am Mar 19, 2013 11:32am
Quoting FerruFx
The risk is defined before opening a trade. Once opened, yes the risk is only emotional.

Reducing the risk of an opened position is part of what I mentioned in my previous post: trade management.
You canīt define your risk before opening a trade. Price gapped through a lot of stops just yesterday. What then?
  • #80
  • Mar 19, 2013 11:54am Mar 19, 2013 11:54am
Good question Myo,

Way i see it, there are only 3 possibilities.

1. trade intraday futures
2. trade currency options
3. Take the loss(disaster)

if anyone has any other possibility , kindly share.
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