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  • #773,421
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:46am Mar 18, 2013 11:46am
Quoting 4exNinja
You pretend the government just decided to pull this off on their own...guess who bribed (sorry...I meant "lobby") those very government officials into letting this happen?

As for your wage example...that makes no sense whatsoever. According to your example, why not let everyone work for 1 cent an hour? After all, if people don't like it companies could simply move elsewhere? It's a great example of why capitalism needs regulations and restrictions to protect the citizens as a whole. American Samoa's situation is different because they rely...
And now when the government helped they're poorer. They shood be thankful no ?

And no- nobody is gonna work for ridiculous wages- they still have to live. Its a matter of competition: when the government tries to fix wages to high you get unemployment not higher wages. That's what the government monkeys cant seem to understand. The end product has to be affordable for consumers. If its not you fire people. Simple. Same reason is why low wages are not a problem: if everybody suddenly slashed wages to 1/100 of what it was they'd have to lower prices to the same level too to clear the market. Capitalism works best. Always. Price controls on anything including labor dont- ever. Thats hoe FDR created the great depression: the banks contracted the money supply so employers dropped wages. Then the cretin imposes minimum wages: instant unemployment. He takes that as a sign he needs to do some more: price controls and destroying "excess" food. Yeah- capitalism did it.

Banks bribing politicians ? Quite possibly if they needed any extra bribes to juice the economy to gain votes. Problem still lies with the moron citizens who allowed the government to guarantee loans and such. Only way to fix it is to get rid of democracy and only allow people with some skin in the game to vote like it used to be- you know when there was no income tax cause the poor couldnt vote themselves money and taxpayer guaranteed loans.
  • #773,422
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:47am Mar 18, 2013 11:47am
Quoting abnormal
When the top is one like now at 1.2995 i think cant go down before ánother touch .... somehwere around 1.2990 What did you think about it?
don't think so...
  • #773,423
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:49am Mar 18, 2013 11:49am
Quoting gatorinla
raw material from the u.s. then the finished product back to the u.s. 2 trips? good luck with the fisherman when they kill all the fish heating the stuff with sea water.. we pay 3-4 bucks for ng... its about 18 last i checked in japan... that's 450-600% more for energy... the highest cost in manufacturing.. good luck with that.. especially when s. Korea, Vietnam or Indonesia will do it cheaper then China.
Yeah- thats why the japs wanna print like crazy now all pretense aside. Still- my point was natural gas is not gonna stay at that price once it starts being shipped to japan. Also I wasnt aware the south east asians sourced their raw materials from the US. You'd assume they could get it from anywhere at the cheapest possible price.
  • #773,424
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:50am Mar 18, 2013 11:50am
I agree with the minimum wage.. The minimum wage JUST IS.. Like absolute zero (temperature). It's the minimum someone is willing to work for, and everything starts from there.. You raise that artificially, you get unemployment or inflation, usually both.. It's all about the votes and in the process fuck everybody..

Quoting SpacyTrader
And now when the government helped they're poorer. They shood be thankful no ?

And no- nobody is gonna work for ridiculous wages- they still have to live. Its a matter of competition: when the government tries to fix wages to high you get unemployment not higher wages. That's what the government monkeys cant seem to understand. The end product has to be affordable for consumers. If its not you fire people. Simple. Same reason is why low wages are not a problem: if everybody suddenly slashed wages to 1/100 of what it was they'd have to lower prices...
  • #773,425
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:51am Mar 18, 2013 11:51am
Quoting SpacyTrader
And now when the government helped they're poorer. They shood be thankful no ?

And no- nobody is gonna work for ridiculous wages- they still have to live. Its a matter of competition: when the government tries to fix wages to high you get unemployment not higher wages. That's what the government monkeys cant seem to understand. The end product has to be affordable for consumers. If its not you fire people. Simple. Same reason is why low wages are not a problem: if everybody suddenly slashed wages to 1/100 of what it was they'd have to lower prices...
Yeah...but you're conveniently forgetting that back then we had people starving in the streets. As a nation, the US wasn't better off back then.

The fact remains, pretending that capitalism can easily be implemented without any restrictions is a fantasy...it's lala land. That's why it's an ECONOMIC THEORY and not a practical action plan. And just like the free market it relies on RATIONAL market participants, something that won't ever be the case. That alone makes it clear a free market economy and 100% pure capitalism is a complete and utter pipe dream...just like communism.
  • #773,426
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:54am Mar 18, 2013 11:54am
Quoting SpacyTrader
The crysis happened precisely because banks acted rationally. They responded to the implicit guarantees of US gov mortgage companies who bought the mortgages the banks originated- the banks signed the mortgages while the government took the risks. Again- government's fault. Just recently they made those same companies now fully government owned again provide 3% downpayment 3% interest mortgages to people who cant afford it- I'm sure it'll work out differently from last time!

The swiss banking sector is not better because is more regulated- its...
here is the cause of your 2008 crises. http://www.sec.gov/news/openmeetings/agenda042804.htm

btw contrary to popular belief we had another in the early 90ties ... Bush 1 was in office.. whats the odds?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,427
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:57am Mar 18, 2013 11:57am
You can always have unions.. they will fight for worker's rights (not being completely screwed over)... BUT... no damn unions in the public sector.. that's technically stealing money from the taxpayers.. I completely agree with private sector unions.. why? because they too have to be reasonable.. if they ask for too much, the company goes bankrupt and their jobs with it.. The gov. should only set the plain field for everybody, defend the nation, protect the food supply, things like that.. they should not get involved into social/economic issues.. their track record is not that great (talking about the U.S. here, in Europe, I don't know.. different story I guess). I was reading about the Scandinavian countries.. It works there.. why? Because for some reason (that escapes me.. ) there is no corruption.. or so they say..


Quoting 4exNinja
Yeah...but you're conveniently forgetting that back then we had people starving in the streets. As a nation, the US wasn't better off back then.

The fact remains, pretending that capitalism can easily be implemented without any restrictions is a fantasy...it's lala land. That's why it's an ECONOMIC THEORY and not a practical action plan. And just like the free market it relies on RATIONAL market participants, something that won't ever be the case. That alone makes it clear a free market economy and 100% pure capitalism is a complete and utter...
  • #773,428
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:58am Mar 18, 2013 11:58am
Atilla why you think that another touch around 1.2990 is not needed and euro can fall now
  • #773,429
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:58am Mar 18, 2013 11:58am
Where is reverse signal?
  • #773,430
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:59am Mar 18, 2013 11:59am
Quoting abnormal
Atilla why you think that another touch around 1.2990 is not needed and euro can fall now
time of day.. both London and NY got their high.. only news will take it back up..
  • #773,431
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:02pm Mar 18, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
here is the cause of your 2008 crises. http://www.sec.gov/news/openmeetings/agenda042804.htm

btw contrary to popular belief we had another in the early 90ties ... Bush 1 was in office.. whats the odds?
Bush Jr's "a house for everyone, free money for everyone" speech didn't really help either

You know a crisis is imminent if they offer negative ammortization loans and loans without any background checks.

The signs were there, most of them simply ignored them. I worked on hotel developments back then where a simple 5% drop in RevPAR (revenue per available room) would make it impossible for them to service their debt, yet we all signed off on those feasibility studies. I remember just having wrapped up my MSc in real estate and telling my boss that a project looked "idiotic...a mere 5% drop in revenues will blow them up". I was told to shut up because if we don't sign off on it we won't get another job from them. I'm pretty sure a lot of people were told to "shut up" in the times leading up to the crisis
  • #773,432
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:02pm Mar 18, 2013 12:02pm
enter eu again...set TP @ 2959
  • #773,433
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:04pm Mar 18, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting SpacyTrader
Yeah- thats why the japs wanna print like crazy now all pretense aside. Still- my point was natural gas is not gonna stay at that price once it starts being shipped to japan. Also I wasnt aware the south east asians sourced their raw materials from the US. You'd assume they could get it from anywhere at the cheapest possible price.
world markets.. they get it where they can.. so the price is = unless you have a contract. remember buffet bought the rail system to west coast for a reason. But this was before N dokata oil looked so promising. Buffet is converting some locomotives to NG atm... if others follow.. then the u.s. will have more oil to export (expensive finished products).. meaning less imports... less trade balance.. add in more manufacturing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,434
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:05pm Mar 18, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting abnormal
Where is reverse signal?
you missed it already, read your charts and wait for next one.
  • #773,435
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:06pm Mar 18, 2013 12:06pm
Hello all,
this is my updated view on the Euro.

The gap down in the morning due to news, coming from Cyprus, brought price right into that 1.2900 area where I anticipate long participation since a few weeks now. A few people think today's price action is going to change the Euro weekly patterns (those very same people could have their head handed over to them if they traded the news today), but the pattern will only change if price moves below the 1.2715 level. I am talking about swing trades here (those who read my post know that's my trading style).

Some people remain objective in the face of news and the emotions they bring about. I will keep trading my method that has served me nicely and I believe it will keep doing so. I am living for a planned trip abroad so I will leave my longer-term view on FF. I will return on April the 7th and will resume posting after that. I know some people don't like my style of analysis and trading (of course, could it be different? We are all different) and I am not going to argue with them. I write for those who want to have access to a slightly different read of the markets to entertain or help complement their own analysis.

Hereunder the chart and the analysis:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363624976

The scenarios I see are the following:

Scenario 1. This is the original scenario which is still up and running, besides yesterday's Cyprus news. This is the highest probability scenario.I believe the market knew already what was happening in Cyprus since a few weeks and this was reflected in price. I am more prone to believe that price has already discounted this, rather than the opposite. If this news was truly affecting the Euro currency, we would have probably seen price continue lower in the morning instead of reversing. Also Euro price tested the 200-day SMA, watched by a lot of retail traders. We have seen the Euro rally in the face of the hardest times in Europe in the last 3-4 years. Nothing to be surprised of. Of course, anything can happen, but I will stick to the long weekly pattern my method is giving me, until that pattern is invalidated. Swing targets in the 1.4090-1.4100 area.

Scenario 2. Should price keep moving lower and through the 1.2715 level (lower probability), I would then anticipate price moving down into the next long level participated by Program Trading, which is 1.2650. Here two different scenarios could open up: 2a and 2b.

Scenario 2a. Price could find participation into the next level of participation on the downside at the 1.3180 area; at this stage 2 more scenario would open up (2a,1 and 2a,2, see below)

Scenario 2b. Price could just keep moving lower and below 1.2515 a retest of 1.2140 would be possible.

Scenario 2a,1. Once at 1.3180, price could just continue higher above 1.3320; or

Scenario 2a,2. Once at 1.3180, price could continue lower towards its first target at the 1.24 area.

Good luck to you all and see you soon.
Cheers
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #773,436
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:07pm Mar 18, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Bocephus
you missed it already, read your charts and wait for next one.
I don't think so i enter short 1.2993 and I close it at 1.2983 and now i enter long at 1.2975 with tp 1.2990 because I'm wait another touch around the sun
  • #773,437
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:09pm Mar 18, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting attila
You can always have unions.. they will fight for worker's rights (not being completely screwed over)... BUT... no damn unions in the public sector.. that's technically stealing money from the taxpayers.. I completely agree with private sector unions.. why? because they too have to be reasonable.. if they ask for too much, the company goes bankrupt and their jobs with it.. The gov. should only set the plain field for everybody, defend the nation, protect the food supply, things like that.. they should not get involved into social/economic issues.....
It works there for the same reason it works in Switzerland...it's a lot more of a direct democracy. People have more power and it's tougher for greedy companies to buy corrupt politicians because in the end the people always have the power to override things. Back home if I dislike a policy or new law, all I have to do is collect 100k signatures and the people get to vote on it.

They also have more than 2 parties, so people often vote based on the issues instead of mere party lines. I'm clearly more of a "lefty", but on some issues I'll vote with the center right party. The world isn't "black or white", so having 2 major power blocks (GOP vs Dem) is silly, especially if those power blocks pretend one party are "pot smoking Soros-funded gay atheist hippies" while the others are "greedy rich white religious fundamentalist males".

Another huge factor are the media. In the US you have PROPAGANDA NETWORKS who call themselves "news". Fox is the right's PR machine, NBC the one of the left. In all cases they completely omit from doing any real research and fact checking things...they merely state "here's opinion A, and here's opinion B...make up your mind" without presenting any real facts or accountability. The media in the US is essentially allowing those in power to dumb down the entire nation. Back home in Switzerland if a politician makes a crazy statement that's blatantly wrong, the news will actually point this out...no matter which party he belongs to.

To put things into perspective: Even after leaving Switzerland I still get to vote on whether they want to renovate a certain park in my town or not using taxpayer funds. THAT'S democracy...not me voting for a sock puppet who then turns around asking the highest bidder for money.
  • #773,438
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting abnormal
I don't think so i enter short 1.2993 and I close it at 1.2983 and now i enter long at 1.2975 with tp 1.2990 because I'm wait another touch around the sun
Okay be careful my friend.
  • #773,439
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm Mar 18, 2013 12:12pm
My law is if it fall down 38% fibo its possible to not see another touch 1.2990. But Even is absolutely okey it touch 38% fibo.
  • #773,440
  • Mar 18, 2013 12:13pm Mar 18, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Yeah...but you're conveniently forgetting that back then we had people starving in the streets. As a nation, the US wasn't better off back then.

The fact remains, pretending that capitalism can easily be implemented without any restrictions is a fantasy...it's lala land. That's why it's an ECONOMIC THEORY and not a practical action plan. And just like the free market it relies on RATIONAL market participants, something that won't ever be the case. That alone makes it clear a free market economy and 100% pure capitalism is a complete and utter...
Have you actually read the part about how FDR created the great depression ? There was no need for anybody to starve. The cretin made that happen with his minimum wage and price controls that made sure people wont have a job and couldnt afford to eat- just like the earlier example from now with samoa.

And I'm sorry, I'm sure youre a very nice guy but you drive me nuts to no end. People like you and your line of thinking are responsible for all the economic man made calamities and famines in world history starting from emperor Diocletian's inflation/wage/price controls/welfare-warfare state. The reality is always the same. When people fuck up the pricing system either for wages or goods all hell breaks loose without fail but nobody ever seems to learn anything from it and people simply refuse to accept it no matter what. The US had the most remarkable run from nothing to the richest place ever in the 19th century no regulation or anything- wild west capitalism, so called robber barons and all- but still: you need the state to fix things.

Theres obviously no point to discuss this further. You know I really didn't appreciate the Rothschild world domination enslavement scheme but the more I think about it and confronted with people like you the more I realize objectively they may have something with their claim as master race. They just control every nation's finances, they dont try to educate the locals on prudent economic practices- they just let the animals destroy the place with all the welfare and price controls they want. While the idiots destroy one country they finance the rise of the next rising economic power, rinse and repeat, forever. It's literally fool proof. People like you can regulate the economy until you eat grass like the north koreans and drive the economy down like Argentina from one of the richest in the world to world-class shit hole. The people with the wealth wont be affected in the least. All you have to do to survive is move along from country to country as it begins to stink.
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