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  • #773,361
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:41am Mar 18, 2013 10:41am
Quoting SpacyTrader
Yes. When a factory in the west is no longer profitable because of the high labor cost, regulatory cost and taxes it gets dismantled and shipped to China where it's more productive. Where's the mystery in that ? Capitalism works- it generates wealth for society. The only reason it now seems not to be the case is cause society came to include China, India etc while until recently it only comprised the western world.
Wealth for society in China that is...something the West first has to come to terms with. I agree that it makes sense why this is happening, it's just that politicians are outright lying when they list other reasons for a decline in wealth in the West.

Also, not all industries suffer from this...and yet they still face declining salaries. Take me for example. I work as a niche expert and Asia isn't really posing a threat to my field at all. I was in Hong Kong last year and met my peers at a conference there...there's less than maybe 20-25 experts in that field in SE Asia. Yet my salary still decreased by 35% over 4 years. Of course I get why it's happening (more people here looking for the same job than there are jobs in that field), but it's clearly not an issue of China stealing our jobs
  • #773,362
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:43am Mar 18, 2013 10:43am
Quoting gatorinla
needless to say, the u.s. gets most of its oil from north America. and yet we fight 2 wars to keep the oil flowing to Europe and Asia with most of the cost paid by the u.s. how convenient
The wars have nothing to do with oil - it's a side effect. The wars are an excuse for the military-industrial complex to uncontrollably loot the budget and the wealth of future generations of taxpayers

Meanwhile, on the gap closure - the PA is now comfortably above the middle of BB (1-hr chart), and at daily S2.
Also, the stocks are only slightly in the negative, with AUD and NZD doing just fine. So, there is no speculative "flight from risk". I am riding my longs above 1.30 now (together with EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD), and entering shorts at 1.3040
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #773,363
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:45am Mar 18, 2013 10:45am
Quoting SpacyTrader
Yes. When a factory in the west is no longer profitable because of the high labor cost, regulatory cost and taxes it gets dismantled and shipped to China where it's more productive. Where's the mystery in that ? Capitalism works- it generates wealth for society. The only reason it now seems not to be the case is cause society came to include China, India etc while until recently it only comprised the western world.
pegged currency, subsided energy..... its all ozzz.. to support a foreign communist government. who is using the new found resources to steal much more then any of us can comprehended..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,364
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:47am Mar 18, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Firstboss
The wars have nothing to do with oil - it's a side effect. The wars are an excuse for the military-industrial complex to uncontrollably loot the budget and the wealth of future generations of taxpayers
bs... Iraq twice to save a friend of a family, a king.. the rest is part of it.. things are sold... blood is shed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,365
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:48am Mar 18, 2013 10:48am
Quoting 4exNinja
Wealth for society in China that is...something the West first has to come to terms with. I agree that it makes sense why this is happening, it's just that politicians are outright lying when they list other reasons for a decline in wealth in the West.

Also, not all industries suffer from this...and yet they still face declining salaries. Take me for example. I work as a niche expert and Asia isn't really posing a threat to my field at all. I was in Hong Kong last year and met my peers at a conference there...there's less than maybe 20-25 experts...
Still a supply/demand issue- just like a billion chinese suddenly added to the labor pool or peak oil. The obvious way to increase your take home pay would be to move to a place like Hong Kong or one of the low tax swiss cantons if you're willing to live in the middle of nowhere.
  • #773,366
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:49am Mar 18, 2013 10:49am
Quoting gatorinla
pegged currency, subsided energy..... its all ozzz.. to support a foreign communist government. who is using the new found resources to steal much more then any of us can comprehended..
The key issue is that people look at THEORETICAL CONCEPTS like capitalism and communism and then pretend that's how the world should work. In reality those are theories who have so many (often unrealistic) pre-requisites that they simply can't be implemented completely.

What we have now is like you say...crazy land.
  • #773,367
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:50am Mar 18, 2013 10:50am
Quoting gatorinla
pegged currency, subsided energy..... its all ozzz.. to support a foreign communist government. who is using the new found resources to steal much more then any of us can comprehended..
Yeah, they steal- so far they mainly steal purchasing power that would otherwise belong to the workers. As long as that's true they'll still attract investments.
  • #773,368
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:51am Mar 18, 2013 10:51am
Here is why:

Quoting SpacyTrader
I'm expecting a retracement up next, then down again- maybe a new low- and then substantially up for a new high or at least double top. That would be my assessment atm.
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  • #773,369
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:51am Mar 18, 2013 10:51am
Quoting SpacyTrader
I'm expecting a retracement up next, then down again- maybe a new low- and then substantially up for a new high or at least double top. That would be my assessment atm.
New low by end of play TODAY ?
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #773,370
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:52am Mar 18, 2013 10:52am
Quoting 4exNinja
The key issue is that people look at THEORETICAL CONCEPTS like capitalism and communism and then pretend that's how the world should work. In reality those are theories who have so many (often unrealistic) pre-requisites that they simply can't be implemented completely.

What we have now is like you say...crazy land.
The only prerequisite for capitalism is as much non-interference from the state as possible. What you have now is a privately owned economy with psychotic states on top constantly pushing buttons and sabotaging the economy and then wondering why things go wrong.

The prerequisite for communism is completely altruistic people and a magical way to get the most competent people in decision making positions- I say magical cause that's exactly what it would take since no natural selection method is provided.
  • #773,371
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:53am Mar 18, 2013 10:53am
Quoting gatorinla
bs... Iraq twice to save a friend of a family, a king.. the rest is part of it.. things are sold... blood is shed.
Again, side effects - save a king, shed blood, redistribute oil contracts. All minor things. The real business is wasting hundreds of billions of USD on friendly military contractors. All of which are global corporations that don't even feel loyal to the country that feeds their frenzy. They will easily re-position themselves elsewhere as soon as the free lunch from US government becomes too small to worry about.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #773,372
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:54am Mar 18, 2013 10:54am
Quoting EatPIPs
New low by end of play TODAY ?
No. Not necessarily. As I said I expect to find a place to go long in the next 3 days tops. During that time I'd expect it to either go sideways or make a new low. I really dont have a good idea, but I wouldnt be at all surprised to see a new drop these days.

And in the context you quoted I meant I expect a new retracement up beginning these days- maybe a few hundred pips- then down a few hundred again- perhaps making a new low and then up towards 1.37 maybe higher.
  • #773,373
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:58am Mar 18, 2013 10:58am
Quoting SpacyTrader
The only prerequisite for capitalism is as much non-interference from the state as possible. What you have now is a privately owned economy with psychotic states on top constantly pushing buttons and sabotaging the economy and then wondering why things go wrong.
This is not realistic in modern technological world with different artificial social contracts that we all came to love so much. Such as "basic human rights", consumer rights, labor rights, children rights, etc... All the things that the relaxed middle class can'y live without.

Plus, it is extremely dangerous to have everything driven by profit only without regard to extreme societal costs it creates.
When Wal-Mart or McDonalds underpay their employees and aren't required to provide benefits, the bill for the long-term consequences eventually has to be footed by the rest of society - all taxpayers.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #773,374
  • Mar 18, 2013 10:58am Mar 18, 2013 10:58am
Quoting SpacyTrader
The only prerequisite for capitalism is as much non-interference from the state as possible. What you have now is a privately owned economy with psychotic states on top constantly pushing buttons and sabotaging the economy and then wondering why things go wrong.
This only works if all market participants act rationally...which CLEARLY isn't the case. Like I said, it's a THEORY, not a practical blueprint.

And not all government intervention is automatically bad. For example, back home in Switzerland we have fairly stringent environmental laws...which obviously infringe on business activity, so it's anti-capitalist. On the other hand, our air doesn't look like the air in Shanghai, so overall I believe we're better off.

Or look at the financial crisis! It didn't happen because the government made those businesses mess up, it happened because the financial industry was deregulated to the point where they could screw over everyone and his dog. If anything, not having enough regulations was the issue!

Or take minimum salaries and overtime pay for example...both against capitalism. But guess what, back home I'd get 1.5x my hourly wage for every hour of overtime...the result? A compared to the US or UK drastically decreased unemployment rate...and higher salaries...and more purchasing power for citizens (which again stimulates the economy). You can't just look at policies in isolation or claim all government intervention is bad.

Again: Capitalism is a THEORETICAL concept with many (often unrealistic) prerequisites and significant drawbacks. Like I said, it's not a practical blueprint that can just be implemented.
  • #773,375
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:00am Mar 18, 2013 11:00am
Quoting SpacyTrader
Yeah, they steal- so far they mainly steal purchasing power that would otherwise belong to the workers. As long as that's true they'll still attract investments.
yep and many military and trade secrets stolen... and now we have to deal with places like Iran/ North Korea who bought these secrets from china. Yeah what a good deal...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,376
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:04am Mar 18, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Vectamart
Mr Benjamin Disraeli famously said " There are lies, damn lies and statistics".

I say there are liars, damn liars and politicians!
What you need is an injection of 2000 Volt.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #773,377
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:05am Mar 18, 2013 11:05am
Quoting gatorinla
yep and many military and trade secrets stolen... and now we have to deal with places like Iran/ North Korea who bought these secrets from china. Yeah what a good deal...
Well, you can't really expect your country to be a dominant global power that pushes business interests of its corporations globally and by any means available. As soon as others grow enough muscles (like China) they rightfully claim their share of the world markets. You can only respect their success.

It's a bit too late to do anything about it (this long-term economic power shift started with Reaganomics) - at this point one can only observe the shift while eating popcorn.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #773,378
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:06am Mar 18, 2013 11:06am
Quoting KillerWhale
What you need is an injection of 2000 Volt.
one milli amp will do the job.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #773,379
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:07am Mar 18, 2013 11:07am
Quoting Firstboss
This is not realistic in modern technological world with different artificial social contracts that we all came to love so much. Such as "basic human rights", consumer rights, labor rights, children rights, etc... All the things that the relaxed middle class can'y live without.

Plus, it is extremely dangerous to have everything driven by profit only without regard to extreme societal costs it creates.
When Wal-Mart or McDonalds underpay their employees and aren't required to provide benefits, the bill for the long-term consequences eventually...
You can demand what you like with your social contracts. The people actually owning the wealth have decided not to pay for it and they already shipped all the production infrastructure out of the west while you werent looking. Guess what that means ? You're not gonna get all those benefits you came to expect. Period. Walmart employees are being made part time workers so as to avoid paying for obamacare btw. As for the rest of the reduction in your standard of living- it'll be accomplished via inflation.

First both husband and wife had to work to make ends meet. Now the next stage is here: both will still have to work, just that they wont be able to afford a nice place to stay in the suburbs, go to restaurants or vacations anywhere. They'll have to crowd the entire family, grandpa too in a studio smack middle of a crime ridden city and make just enough so they dont starve.
  • #773,380
  • Mar 18, 2013 11:08am Mar 18, 2013 11:08am
e-j possibilities

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