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  • #1,481
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:15pm Mar 15, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?
Sellers are positioning themselves for a move down. Needed more orders and had to move the market up to get them and that is why it's a perceived failed news trade. during this consolidation orders are gathered to take out the barrier. While this is going on I would trade the range created between the weekly open and the level where the orders have shown themselves to be residing. After the spike up you can see where the tops are getting lower.

My 2 cents on how I view it.
  • #1,482
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:16pm Mar 15, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting Olarion1975
I did not trade the breakout of the news bar because of 1.31 above.
I didn't take it either. A couple of reasons; The weekly high too close, Its Friday, CPI isn't high on my list of tradable news items, and it wasn't much of a beat above estimates.
  • #1,483
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:18pm Mar 15, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting fisheggs
Failure to close outside the range usually means it is going to the other side of the range.

(Although it could be something else which I have not yet seen/grasped)
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
  • #1,484
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:20pm Mar 15, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I just posted a chart. Look at the bracketed area. What do you see happening here? What possibly happens if there is a close outside this area?
SP, It goes the direction of the breakout. This time , the market is always closing in the range though it showing the trend to the downside.
  • #1,485
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:24pm Mar 15, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
Ok. I get it now. Missed huge!
  • #1,486
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:25pm Mar 15, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?

Isn't this a beautiful bull flag? It's just not something Seneca had used in this thread , so maybe it doesn't really fit here...

On the other hand if it breaks out to the down side maybe the re-test is tradeable.

But then again,it's the end of the trading day... Also the end of the trading week.
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #1,487
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:26pm Mar 15, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting square1
SP, It goes the direction of the breakout. This time , the market is always closing in the range though it showing the trend to the downside.
That's right, every bounce is lower. It COULD break down and move all the way back down to the close from last week. It is after London so I won't bother with this but there is a chance that this can roll over. S&P and Dow are both in possible sell territory. Remember all those people who bought the highs in 07 are looking to break even.
  • #1,488
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:26pm Mar 15, 2013 12:26pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
I said I did not long, but I shorted below the 8:45 candle with s stop order for a short scalp...stop goes above high of the candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: news scalp.png Size: 22 KB
  • #1,489
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:27pm Mar 15, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
I would place the sell on the close of the 8.45 bar looking to get in on a retest of the close at 9.15. There could be better ways, but this looks fairly safe.

Looks better on a 5 min chart
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #1,490
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:32pm Mar 15, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting rdsl
Isn't this a beautiful bull flag? It's just not something Seneca had used in this thread , so maybe it doesn't really fit here...

On the other hand if it breaks out to the down side maybe the re-test is tradeable.

But then again,it's the end of the trading day... Also the end of the trading week.

This is why I don't trade patterns. Some people see a bull flag or pennant. Others will see a descending flat bottom triangle. Both have very different results.

I see a news bar which has resulted in short term support and resistance. Tantum is probably right that there was a very big seller up there eating up the breakout players in order to get short. There also could have been a big option player who needed to push price away from 3100 before ten NY cut off.
  • #1,491
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:33pm Mar 15, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
That is not the case with my platform. I cross checked with Oanda and i see that they are a little different.
Your candle 08:45(Oanda) or 14:45 (On my Platform, broke out then closed outside.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 131503.2.fxpro-news.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #1,492
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:34pm Mar 15, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting Olarion1975
I said I did not long, but I shorted below the 8:45 candle with s stop order for a short scalp...stop goes above high of the candle.
Beautiful. You are the best. It is safe to hold for the low of the range when this happens. You can use a stop and reverse above the high because if it breaks back above its off to the races.
  • #1,493
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:36pm Mar 15, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting square1
That is not the case with my platform. I cross checked with Oanda and i see that they are a little different.
Your candle 08:45(Oanda) or 14:45 (On my Platform, broke out then closed outside.)
No three tenths of a pip is not a close outside you need to be able to see it. When there is no follow through on a big candle like this you can usually make a nice trade in the other direction. This is similar to the inside candle trading with NFP.
  • #1,494
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:42pm Mar 15, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No three tenths of a pip is not a close outside you need to be able to see it. When there is no follow through on a big candle like this you can usually make a nice trade in the other direction. This is similar to the inside candle trading with NFP.
Thank you for this. I have been kind of a perfectionist.
Olarion1975, that looks good.
  • #1,495
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:43pm Mar 15, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is why I don't trade patterns. Some people see a bull flag or pennant. Others will see a descending flat bottom triangle. Both have very different results.

I see a news bar which has resulted in short term support and resistance. Tantum is probably right that there was a very big seller up there eating up the breakout players in order to get short. There also could have been a big option player who needed to push price away from 3100 before ten NY cut off.
SP wasn't sure if you liked me previously referring to option barriers, so I did not state this. Both the spike to 1.3100 and 1.3050 were the options in play today. 1.3100 resisted spike up and 1.3050 is the current base and the option probably attracted more orders since this area is still in play. Now if I was the big seller playing off the news spike to gain more orders I am going to piggy back the option to do so because if I am not the option holder it would take less of my capital to hold the price and move it down. I believe they were both in play and we never really know the truth.
  • #1,496
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:47pm Mar 15, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting TantumVerum
SP wasn't sure if you liked me previously referring to option barriers, so I did not state this. Both the spike to 1.3100 and 1.3050 were the options in play today. 1.3100 resisted spike up and 1.3050 is the current base and the option probably attracted more orders since this area is still in play. Now if I was the big seller playing off the news spike to gain more orders I am going to piggy back the option to do so because if I am not the option holder it would take less of my capital to hold the price and move it down. I believe they were both...

It definately looks like someone is holding it above 3050. Its made easier after London close, thinner market now. When this option goes out look out below. I can't find the expiry on this one looked everywhere I know to look. It must be vanilla as there would be no reason to defend if DNT.
  • #1,497
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:50pm Mar 15, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
No you are on the right track. Now look closely at the candles. The 08:45 broke out then closed back inside. Where might you want to place a sell order?
This Q&A game is really cool. Also , I think it's one of the best ways to teach.

I know I'm a bit slow (maybe not just a bit) but I still don't get it.

Where should we have sold? If it's under the 8:45 candle, then how on earth could you know that it's a turn to the down side,and not just a momentary "rest" of the price and the next candle is going to be a continuation of the news break out.

Also , why not just wait to the re-test of the hight of this new range and sell it again? If there really is a big player, I would assume that for the second test of this level, he will still take a lot of orders and send the prices back down, wouldn't he?
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #1,498
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:53pm Mar 15, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
It definately looks like someone is holding it above 3050. Its made easier after London close, thinner market now. When this option goes out look out below. I can't find the expiry on this one looked everywhere I know to look. It must be vanilla as there would be no reason to defend if DNT.
Yes, it was a vanilla and is another one on Monday at this level. The only reason I thought it may be important is because it rejected this morning at 7:30 NY time and then the news rejected almost to the pip (1 pipette only) on my feed.
  • #1,499
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:56pm Mar 15, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting rdsl
This Q&A game is really cool. Also , I think it's one of the best ways to teach.

I know I'm a bit slow (maybe not just a bit) but I still don't get it.

Where should we have sold? If it's under the 8:45 candle, then how on earth could you know that it's a turn to the down side,and not just a momentary "rest" of the price and the next candle is going to be a continuation of the news break out.

Also , why not just wait to the re-test of the hight of this new range and sell it again? If there really is a big player, I would assume that for...
The News bar was much larger than any candles nearby. There was no follow through. Once the low of the failed breakout candle was broken that opened the door for a move back to the low of the candle. You can't ever KNOW what price will do next, however we get tradable patterns which have probabilities on our side. With this situation you had a nice little twenty pip failure candle with a target thirty three pips away. 1.5/1 RR is a good bet in my book. Also if the breakout candle turns out not to be a failure you can get long at the top cause its going to go far enough up to cover your loss and give a profit. Refer to Olarian's chart.
  • #1,500
  • Mar 15, 2013 12:57pm Mar 15, 2013 12:57pm
Quoting TantumVerum
Yes, it was a vanilla and is another one on Monday at this level. The only reason I thought it may be important is because it rejected this morning at 7:30 NY time and then the news rejected almost to the pip (1 pipette only) on my feed.
What's your source I can't find it on IFR.
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