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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #1,461
  • Mar 15, 2013 7:05am Mar 15, 2013 7:05am
All news is out, and everyone is asking....what next? It's a battle today.
  • #1,462
  • Edited 8:08am Mar 15, 2013 7:25am | Edited 8:08am
EU: Going for the previous weekly high.

Edit: I was stopped. Poor entry.
  • #1,463
  • Mar 15, 2013 7:26am Mar 15, 2013 7:26am
Got 80 pips from this one using two simplest tool ever....piercing pattern on EMA 50.....
Nice one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound friday.JPG Size: 80 KB
  • #1,464
  • Mar 15, 2013 7:57am Mar 15, 2013 7:57am
"Go back as far as you can and eliminate everything but the daily open and the previous day high and low. Look at the trade every day with just these three lines. Take the first hit each day and look at how things work. You can trade successfully with just these three lines every day. The other stuff is nice but not absolutely necessary."

Very true, just to check today.... Long EU, GU, EJ, GY, Short UJ off Daily Open......


Have question Seneca. Today long EU off daily open would have target at Previous Day High, if I understand your TP correctly, however, it went much higher. What do you do in this situation ?


I took short on UJ during NY for a nice 3RR.

Thanks for all Seneca.
  • #1,465
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:00am Mar 15, 2013 8:00am
Quoting snail69
"Go back as far as you can and eliminate everything but the daily open and the previous day high and low. Look at the trade every day with just these three lines. Take the first hit each day and look at how things work. You can trade successfully with just these three lines every day. The other stuff is nice but not absolutely necessary."

Very true, just to check today.... Long EU, GU, EJ, GY, Short UJ off Daily Open......


Have question Seneca. Today long EU off daily open would have target at Previous Day High, if I understand your...
Yeas snail, I'm seeing some good things in different markets too. It's gonna be a busy but fun weekend
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #1,466
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:08am Mar 15, 2013 8:08am
Quoting square1
All news is out, and everyone is asking....what next? It's a battle today.
Very well could be. I got caught up on the wrong side twice this morning, but the good guys prevailed in the end. I had a bit of a tussle with the market (E/U) so far this morning (NY session). I think E/U was trying to get some of the money back that I took yesterday. I am on the sidelines at the moment waiting to see if something interesting shows up, but time is running out on my tolerance for a Friday. Might just stay away because of the fight I had to put up earlier.

Everyone:

Somewhat OT, but I watched a really good show last evening, on Science Channel (Sci) I believe, that is very relevant to trading. It goes over different topics regarding the subconscious, perception, and bias caused by the brain. Why I believe SP's thread and philosophy he has communicated helps control this. Two things that turned the corner for me was understanding the markets (as SP preaches to all in this thread) and understanding my self (as in what causes me to make decisions). I use to be afraid of ranges and want trends. I can trade in a range or a trend now and it really doesn't matter except for how much a trade may be at risk or in/potential profit. I just manage accordingly.

Trading for me has evolved this way. It took years and the typical evolution of a trader to get through all the BS one has to get through. I simply draw my demarcation point on a chart with other boundaries and I am off with the knowledge of the market and the information it gives me as price unfolds. I am always looking for new ideas and once I was out of traditional school/college my real learning began. I now know I do not know everything and that is why I love threads like these because they can expand awareness of things your brain filters out and every little bit helps. Always keep acquiring knowledge and keep improving.

Good trading and acquire the right knowledge to all...
  • #1,467
  • Mar 15, 2013 8:18am Mar 15, 2013 8:18am
Quoting square1
EU: Going for the previous weekly high.

Edit: I was stopped. Poor entry.
Might be some orders in the way (market took some of them out at 11:00 NY time) to that level and depending how active the market is yet today it may not get there. It is what I am looking for as well, but as of right now I am still on the sidelines. For me I like the area of NY open and the Monthly open, which could hold price moving forward. I am looking for entry at one of these two levels to short, but if it goes back over Monthly open I may stay out because there is not enough info for me above that mark to go long late on a Friday when all the other players are below it. Players are or will be closing out positions moving towards London and NY close.
  • #1,468
  • Edited 8:39am Mar 15, 2013 8:22am | Edited 8:39am
Yesterday was nice for the opening range breakout.

First half closed at 1/1 for 1.0R (0.5%), second half closed today for 5.0R (2.5%). That makes 3% account increase and got me just to break-even on the breakout method this week which was a tough one with a few losers.

I made a screenshot with steps of my thinking process...

PS: I am up about +5% on the breakout method this month so far.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu breakout.png Size: 41 KB
  • #1,469
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:28am Mar 15, 2013 9:28am
I didn't trade today. I am busy right now I will be back later to make a few comments. I don't really trade Fridays much any more except for NFP. Sometimes the price action on Fridays can be goofy.

Please people go back as far as you can and test the daily open 05:00GMT. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Test the daily highs and lows. What is the percentage of winners there at 1/1-1.5/1-2/1? Is there any particular day of the week that loses more than the rest? Wins more than the rest? Can you trade successfully from just one of these areas each day? Can you devise a method where you use the three together? Do you need any other prices highlited on the chart?

Most of you won't do this. For those of you who will, please PM me your results. How many total trades? How many winners? How many losers? Average drawdown? Average winner? I have these stats and it guides my trading. If you go to the trouble to gather this info it will help you. This thread has gotten out of hand and I want to help those traders who are willing to help themselves. I may only continue this through PM as the thread is just degenerating into a trade log and that is not the purpose. Show me you are serious enough to get some stats and I will help you. No strings attached, no sales pitches just help for those who are really serious. Some of you don't need help any more, you know who you are. I will of course still stay in touch.
  • #1,470
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:32am Mar 15, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Olarion1975
Yesterday was nice for the opening range breakout.

First half closed at 1/1 for 1.0R (0.5%), second half closed today for 5.0R (2.5%). That makes 3% account increase and got me just to break-even on the breakout method this week which was a tough one with a few losers.

I made a screenshot with steps of my thinking process...

PS: I am up about +5% on the breakout method this month so far.
I lost my nerve at 1.31. Looking like a good exit now. I thought we might make the high from last week but now it isn't looking so good. I made 0.12% on the breakouts this week. Maybe I'll go out and buy a steak with my winnings.
  • #1,471
  • Mar 15, 2013 9:49am Mar 15, 2013 9:49am
Oops, 1.3050 has become an important level for EU.
  • #1,472
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:00am Mar 15, 2013 10:00am
Quoting square1
Oops, 1.3050 has become an important level for EU.
A learning moment: Why do you think this is so?
  • #1,473
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:05am Mar 15, 2013 10:05am
Quoting threei
Just read SP's post on the time change and he is still using 5:00 gmt/ which is now 1:00 am NY time, sorry for the bad info.
You can really use either. For these two weeks we are one hour off with respect to London. After they go to BST then you can go back to midnight eastern. Most of the time it will make little or no difference which one you use. You can also test midnight London for your start time. This is a little easier to trade in the US. The thing for you to investigate is the win rates for the time choices to see what you want to do.
  • #1,474
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:07am Mar 15, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Seneca pilot
A learning moment: Why do you think this is so?
In-decision plus many orders stacked up on London Close. Thinking ahead into next week.
  • #1,475
  • Edited 10:09am Mar 15, 2013 10:08am | Edited 10:09am
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: news bar as s&r.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,476
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:11am Mar 15, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?
Failure to close outside the range usually means it is going to the other side of the range.

(Although it could be something else which I have not yet seen/grasped)
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #1,477
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:12am Mar 15, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?
I did not trade the breakout of the news bar because of 1.31 above.
  • #1,478
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:12am Mar 15, 2013 10:12am
Quoting square1
In-decision plus many orders stacked up on London Close. Thinking ahead into next week.
I just posted a chart. Look at the bracketed area. What do you see happening here? What possibly happens if there is a close outside this area?
  • #1,479
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:13am Mar 15, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Seneca pilot
This is the news bar for PPI. This could be viewed as a failed news trade but there is a tradable and repeating pattern here. Anyone?
I got that too, ive been thinking of going long but...the market! the market..has been saying it to my eyes 'i am wrong'. So i am now on the sidelines too, watching it play out.

Edit: I can see that now it has just broken through to the downside.
  • #1,480
  • Mar 15, 2013 10:13am Mar 15, 2013 10:13am
Quoting fisheggs
Failure to close outside the range usually means it is going to the other side of the range.
Right, but for the breakout of news bars Seneca does not wait for a close...
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