EurAnalysis

Pull up a weekly chart mate, locate last 4 major swings in euro/dollar par exampl, check what has been said round those tops and bottoms - trade different than 95% of the forex retail market and enjoy your life.
Best of luck

Guys... I will never understand NEWS interpretation...
What was so NEWSSY to push the price up?

Maybe because there is nothing to understand... I don't think price does move on news...

but won't go that way again...

So my answer is... I don't know ...

and what if this is one of those tricky "falsey" spikes, and price will drop next hour?
why dollar is loosing so much?
why other pairs are behaving so strange?
I will give it up for now...

Manufacturing or CPI doesn't change a main trend, only big mouth comments, so you can have a rally during great NFP but it will probably won't change the main track unless it is a groundbreaking figure.
I will give you exaple, why eur/jpy has been weakening???? because of algos?
NO -because BOJ announce printing till death - fundamental push
why euro rallied from 1,20 to 1,37 ???? because of algos?
NO -because dragster came and said "don't worry, we'll handle it you can come back with money" - fundamental push
Current drop in value got a mix of negative data from euro and us beign more positive so again - fundamental reason.

But if you are going for that 20 we were talking about you should be aware but it shouldn't be your main concern.
I am sure both sides can be profitable,
rant over, have to go to work
regards

heh... there's something in it...
Most of the trend reversals or big movements happen during (or right after) ECB and FED Press Conference.

This really isn't a big movement though, sure it went up like 50 pips...but as of right now it just ranged back down 30 pips...I just put this all down to being friday...and a continuation of a slow up trend the last few days.

Hello all,
Euro going up as anticipated in past analysis.This is an update on the 4-hour chart.

By piercing on the upside the level I have indicated yesterday,i.e. 1.3020, price confirmed the 1.2900 area of support. It does not mean that area could not be retested, but with a confirmation, a potential retest should now hold.

The 1.3010 extension long setup on the 4-hour chart held yesterday and brough price into the 1.3060 area (1st target) and then the 1.3080 area (2nd target). Next support and long entry now at 1.3075

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363353467

My two scenarios as usual (see picture above):

Scenario 1. If the 1.3066 level is pierced on the downside there are two important level to watch where we could see bounces. The first level is 1.3015-20 area, while the second is the 1.2980 area. We don't know where price will stop and reverse. If we get this move lower now this is will be the opportunity for Program Trading to establish or add to longs. If we don't get the retrace now, we will eventually have a retrace. So don't rush to longs. (notice that sometimes even after breaking below 1.3066 the 'busted' setup can reach the 1.3120 area of target anyway, before correcting lower into the indicated levels)

Scenario 2. The next level of support and long entry is at 1.3075 with a stop below 1.3065. If price holds this long setup we could see the 1.3120 area hit (1st target) and then price hit the 1.3140 area (2nd target)

Let me know what you think.
Thank you
GL

Cheers
G.

I´m posting an excerpt from the book Inside the House of Money. Top Hedge Fund Managers on Profiting in Global Markets by Steven Drobny. Just a small part, because I don´t want to get sued. It´s from an interview with an anonymous "foreign exchange manager who works for a large international financial institution". Now, I understand almost nothing he is talking about and I´m not sure if it helps anybody but maybe someone here (Sisse?) can break that stuff down, or it gets the naysayers interested or we can even try to discuss a few of these things or whatever. Enjoy (and buy the book, if you liked it. It is a great read!):

How do you approach trading currencies in a global macro context?
To me, foreign exchange is not a true macro strategy. It’s the tail of the distribution.
There is only one true macro trade and that’s the price of
money. Everything else is a function of the price of money.
Central banks control the price of money and drive everything with
their central bank rate. They use monetary policy to get supply and demand
moving in the economy by encouraging people to move out along
the risk curve.The risk curve, in essence, is the credit curve.
Of course fiscal policy is controlled by government, so we also keep
that variable in mind when looking at the current and future prices of the
assets we trade.
Meanwhile, monetary policy has high correlation among the G10, with
the exception of Japan, because they’re all driven by the same thing.There
is really only one central bank and that’s the U.S. Federal Reserve.The Fed
sets the price of money.
In actual practice, the price of money is not the Fed’s overnight rate but
the interest rate that corporations use to evaluate investment opportunities.
I would argue that’s the 18-month to two-year interest rate. From
there, you move out along the risk curve to government bonds, corporate
bonds, and then equities. At the tail end, you have foreign exchange (FX)
fanning out.
Foreign exchange is like the fan at the end of the credit curve. It’s a
function of how people are looking at those credits along the curve. For
example, if the market decides that Brazil is a great credit, then other
things being equal I’d expect the Brazilian real to rally because people have
to go in and buy it if they want exposure to Brazil.

So, currencies are essentially beta on interest rate sentiment?
Yes.They are beta on interest rate and credit sentiment, or beta on beta.
Foreign exchange is sentiment driven because it’s a relative price between
two countries. It reflects the relative sentiment of investors, reality and the
perception of a bunch of different factors between two economies.
In managing my portfolio, I spend most of my time concentrating on the
Fed because it is responsible for encouraging people to invest and move out
the risk curve. It doesn’t want everybody so scared that all they do is deposit
their money in short rates. Economies don’t expand in that scenario.
Consequently, we are very directional. At most, there are only three or
four macro trades in the world at any one time. If there is only one, then
we’ll only have one trade on.Those three or four macro trades, apart from
the cost of capital, are what the bond markets are doing, what the equity
markets are doing, and what the dollar is doing.
The dollar in a broader sense only trades against three blocs—Europe,
Asia, and Latin America—and rates/prices within those blocs correlate. It
would be unusual to see the Chilean peso and Brazilian real moving in
completely opposite directions, for example. The difficulty with foreign
exchange is that there’s no real anchor to FX policy.Who actually controls
foreign exchange policy?
Foreign exchange is a very difficult tool to run policy with. The only
large country that has used a foreign exchange policy in the last decade
(who allegedly has a floating rate, i.e., not pegged) is Japan, which is why
they don’t correlate with the rest of the G10. Japan’s monetary policy and
fiscal policy are maxed out, so it’s the only policy tool they have left to create
any change in supply and demand conditions. Likewise, true global
macro funds should make more money out of fixed income than foreign
exchange, because fixed income is policy driven and foreign exchange is
the anchorless tail thing.

Are you watching price before any entries, or you just leave pending orders with fixed stop loss...

Yeah... This is what I was afraid of an hour ago.
BULLS trap...
If 4H close on RED, that would mean we're getting into correction of last impulse leg, as on fibstalker chart.

Halkins, I have longs from below and will only add to my swing on setups on the daily chart.

I do this 4-hour analysis to help others who were left behind to get on board and to keep myself on the right path, to create realistic expectations on price action.

When I add on the daily chart I use the TICK and the 15min charts to time the entry...

GL

How is everyone today, Sisse comes from the EUR/USD thread and there is nothing to add. When someone knows everything then they know nothing. Has anyone heard from PipTrapper ?

I will definitely call him or email him in the next few days.

As some of you who post here know I am a FX Trader that leads with Fundamentals which also includes MONEY FLOW which equates to Common Sense.

Fundamentals are more than news and SPIN. Technicals and Price Action are important as well.

Human nature and your own ability to control your FEAR GREED and EGO is a big KEY to success.

I have come to a conclusion that Risk Management plays perhaps the biggest role in cuurency trading.

What are your views and please take the weekend to recharge your batteries and ENJOY your life.

I think it all depends on targets and expectations.
I know traders shooting 20pips a day with huge leverage, and they are doing fine.
I know also a trader with big size account who says "I earned 18% on Eurodollar" in 2012 and he's happy about it.
He spends not more then 30min a day trading, actually he's not trading, but more like "looking on charts".

AMEN AND AMEN I use an analogy. FA is like the Jet Stream where as TA are the gales and breezes below. The shorter the TF the closer to the ground you are trying to forecast the direction and strength of a zephyr...

Again Right On

And that makes the Hat Trick!

I place extreme emphasis on Risk/MM. It is one of the 3 Pillars of Trading. FA / TA / MM. I didnt list physiological because if have discipline your MM is followed you dont get tempted. If I did have to choose I would pick Fear as a better trait then Greed. Its one of the 7 deadlys for a reason... and I would rather miss the train then get hit by it.

As many of you know I wrote a program that takes my existing risk with other real time variables and gives me the position size. If you have proper MM based on the extreme price ranges you can survive a lot of bad trades.

I trade like a Bankster. I scalp the 10M chart both Long and Short at the same time with overlapping PYRAMIDS over a wide range 2000+ pips without using a SL. MM allows me to do this.

This is my style and it has been applauded and mocked. But I have a massive win record without a MC. Many times I was correct about the market but wrong in the timing. MM lets me have the last laugh...

Do I have DD? Of course but the proper MM keeps it reasonable. Having some Longs ITM (In The Money) does mental wonders for my underwater Short positions.

It all fits with my market philosophy: Its a Walk to Wealth Not a Race to Riches (Ruin)

Thanks CM for your posts. Please tell PT he is missed.

where is he

Hello EuroTraderJD,

Your style of trading and MM sounds interesting. Can you provide more specific details or is it proprietary information?

Regards,

EZ

Thank you EZ for your interest.

The details are proprietary such as the algorithm that spits out the final position size HOWEVER I am working on a web based .NET application that I would be happy to show the forum when completed. Its taking forever it seems because I work on it in between software/Internet/database projects.

Basically for the pyramids goes like this.

If trading Short it is my main account which uses more position size is at the top of the price range and minimal at the bottom. When I say range I mean LT range.

For the Long pyramid it is traded in a sub account and sizing is inverse as the Short.

But since the LT trend for the euro is down the short pyramid is weighted more financially.

I created a Probability module that tells me the % chances of the Euro going to either extreme in real time. I also use this tool to tell me what my chances are for getting filled or meeting a TP objective but I usually do market orders when the indos say buy or sell and get out the same way with a market order.

The software also looks at my leverage (I use 50:1), current positions, money in my account, distance from my closest position, then calculates using a Constant I came up with.

Once the size is given it preforms another calculation and tells me the minimum place I should place the trade (when the indos or say so) to avoid a "price plop" or position saturation as I call it. If its within the range I dont place a trade no matter how loud the buy or sell indo signal is. MM takes all priority because it is about the money.

If my max DD is reached then a circuit breaker kicks in and I dont trade that bias. Yea I may and have missed some pips for the time being BUT I dont lose it all via a MARGIN CALL. Again Fear is a good thing for preservation in nature and in the markets.

If the trend is your friend your bias will be rewarded using another tool called Patience. In the mean time I trade the other bias until my DD circuit breaker is canceled.

This software was created out of necessity. I have been demoralized by the Ms. Market more than once via a MC. Once I realized I loved trading more than greed I was on my way to create this Godsend program. No guessing or over trade size. The chances of a MC are 0 if you follow the recommendations for the given price extremes entered because it does the math.

Sounds easy but it took me months to code this using my own money (not demo) to get the algo and Constant correct.

When its your money and love on the line you seem to want success more.

BTW my last margin call was 10/18/2011 right before I starting using the software. Since then I have had over 1100+ wins and 9 loses.

3 of those loses were due to touch pad executing 3 trades prematurely when i was distracted with Hot Mama and 3 of them when I clicked Close All Trades instead of the current one after a maximum martini dinner.

Lessons learned take care of Mama before trading, use a mouse, and stay away from the trading platform when inebriated.

Thats the overview. I hope it helps.

Where is PT?

Guys if you are making money with TA then keep doing it. It works until it doesn't.

TA: if it's not going up then down. Everyone is a billionaire.