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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #8,361
  • Mar 13, 2013 1:11am Mar 13, 2013 1:11am
Quoting Teddicus
I disagree, I see a clear elliot wave sequencing pattern.... GJ Short Target... 135, 132....
I am overlooking it for sure - what count do you have?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,362
  • Edited 3:10am Mar 13, 2013 2:51am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting venzen
I am overlooking it for sure - what count do you have?
Looking at the long term GJ PA (inset on the chart below) it topped in 2007 and has since been correcting. Whether that correction is complete is unclear, but let's assume it's not and that it's currently in upward correction like almost all instruments and indices have been for the past 5 years.

The recent top on 11 Feb 2013 seems to be complete. MACD and RSI support this view. The downmove since then seems to be impulsive but with some definite overlap of waves 1 and 4. This is not visible on the 1day chart below, but on a 15min chart it is blatantly evident. The overlap is apparently made by a B-wave so wave 4 does not strictly-speaking "end in the price territory of wave 1" but the overlap is there - see EWI interpretation of overlap in forex markets

If we disregard the overlap (to our peril) and call the downmove wave 1 then the common wave relationships we can expect represent a sizable downmove (see annotations on chart). If we count the downmove as a 3w, then we are most likely in an X wave and another HH at Z is on the cards. However, either way, once the current upward correction is complete we can reasonably expect a downmove of at least 1000 points (the length of 1/a) before PA heads for Z or continues down impulsively in wave 3.

A good set-up Teddicus, and quite interesting since it implies GBP is depreciating faster than JPY

edit: reviewing the longterm chart, this pair seems to like extending in the 5th wave, so either lower in wave 5 or higher in wave Z is possible

http://ubuntuone.com/36vXxp3qsG9fFwFBAvsx1v
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,363
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:18am Mar 13, 2013 4:18am
Forgot to post my EG chart on here yesterday;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...2h12-03-13.png
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  • #8,364
  • Mar 13, 2013 4:41am Mar 13, 2013 4:41am
Quoting The Cableguy
Forgot to post my EG chart on here yesterday;
Saw this on your blog - thanks for the heads-up. EG is heading down as I write, but running out of RSI. Hope B wave top is in
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,365
  • Mar 13, 2013 5:25am Mar 13, 2013 5:25am
Quoting venzen
Saw this on your blog - thanks for the heads-up. EG is heading down as I write, but running out of RSI. Hope B wave top is in

Yes, bit of a gamble as i can in no way make out 'c' of 'B'!!!
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  • #8,366
  • Mar 13, 2013 7:38am Mar 13, 2013 7:38am
Appears that we may be in iii of 3 of 5 for Eur/Usd.

I had a short that I closed at 1.3005 and figured I would re-enter in wave 2.... but at 1.3013 I re-chose to re-enter there, and what an entry indeed !!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.JPG Size: 70 KB
  • #8,367
  • Mar 13, 2013 7:45am Mar 13, 2013 7:45am
Quoting Forex Magic
Appears that we may be in iii of 3 of 5 for Eur/Usd.

I had a short that I closed at 1.3005 and figured I would re-enter in wave 2.... but at 1.3013 I re-chose to re-enter there, and what an entry indeed !!

Great trade! I had a small pop short too, but also in EurGbp short as per earlier chart
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  • #8,368
  • Mar 13, 2013 7:55am Mar 13, 2013 7:55am
Quoting The Cableguy
Great trade! I had a small pop short too, but also in EurGbp short as per earlier chart
Hi CG & Thank You!

I saw the EG post and thought You had mis-spelled EU

Just goes to show how long it is since that one came off my radar
  • #8,369
  • Mar 13, 2013 8:20am Mar 13, 2013 8:20am
Between here and 1.2885 I suppose...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.png Size: 78 KB
  • #8,370
  • Mar 13, 2013 9:19am Mar 13, 2013 9:19am
#EURUSD
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dxnkeo2Z4n...600/eurusd.JPG
  • #8,371
  • Mar 13, 2013 9:29am Mar 13, 2013 9:29am
Quoting SlyQsx
#EURUSD
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dxnkeo2Z4n...600/eurusd.JPG
Beautiful Count !

Your [e] .... does this assume a triangle from the Low at 1.2038 ?

Aha.... I found Your Weekly Count now and see what that is.... Thank You for sharing.
  • #8,372
  • Edited 9:55am Mar 13, 2013 9:41am | Edited 9:55am
GU has made what looks like either a irregular (running) flat or a 1-2 (1)-(2). The latter is very bearish and so is the former, so GU is very bearish right now

http://ubuntuone.com/7HLwJCpd1eM9FuqLIfNXnb
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,373
  • Mar 13, 2013 9:44am Mar 13, 2013 9:44am
Quoting Forex Magic
Beautiful Count !

Your [e] .... does this assume a triangle from the Low at 1.2038 ?

Aha.... I found Your Weekly Count now and see what that is.... Thank You for sharing.
Nice chart, exactly what I have been looking at for the past week.
  • #8,374
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:06am Mar 13, 2013 10:06am
Quoting venzen
GU has made what looks like either a irregular (running) flat or a 1-2 (1)-(2). The latter is very bearish and so is the former, so GU is very bearish right now

http://ubuntuone.com/7HLwJCpd1eM9FuqLIfNXnb
I dont know about the Count Venzen, but my RSI on 3 Hr is looking "RIPE" for a short....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.png Size: 54 KB
  • #8,375
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:08am Mar 13, 2013 10:08am
Perhaps...

EU 5m Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu5.png Size: 58 KB
  • #8,376
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:17am Mar 13, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Forex Magic
Perhaps...

EU 5m Chart
Not sure but RSI reverse divergence implies at least one more low for EU - but not sure where to after that...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,377
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:20am Mar 13, 2013 10:20am
Quoting venzen
Not sure but RSI reverse divergence implies at least one more low for EU - but not sure where to after that...
Agreed going a little bit lower...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15min.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #8,378
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:24am Mar 13, 2013 10:24am
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Agreed going a little bit lower...
1.2885 is the 50% Fibo level from the July 2012 low. If it breaks that then I shall await establishing a Long Position.

I have stops in my shorts and +1 and a bit pips each and will allow my Splendid RSI's to show me when and where.

EU3Hr:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.png Size: 58 KB
  • #8,379
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:28am Mar 13, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Forex Magic
1.2885 is the 50% Fibo level from the July 2012 low. If it breaks that then I shall await establishing a Long Position.

I have stops in my shorts and +1 and a bit pips each and will allow my Splendid RSI's to show me when and where.

EU3Hr:
I have a target of .28957 should be close to the end, unless it shoots right passed that heavily then my next target would be .27857(161.8% of wave 1) but now I am looking at 100% of wave one.
  • #8,380
  • Mar 13, 2013 10:38am Mar 13, 2013 10:38am
Quoting venzen
GU has made what looks like either a irregular (running) flat or a 1-2 (1)-(2). The latter is very bearish and so is the former, so GU is very bearish right now

http://ubuntuone.com/7HLwJCpd1eM9FuqLIfNXnb
or one of them funny looking leading diagonal wave 1's! hence a little respite for a mo!
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