EurAnalysis

Hello all,
hope you are having a great weekend. Here in Italy it's cloudy so...good time for a hot chocolate, relax and a view on the Euro FX currency futures valid for next Monday March 11th...

The Euro FX futures is still in measured moves lower on the daily chart. The last setup had resistance and short entry around the 1.3170 level with a stop above 1.3205 which was never hit. The first target in the 1.2950 area was only hit yesterday. Those who though the BCE rally was the start of the move higher of the Euro were mistaken.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362841948

If we consider the 1.2950 first target hit on Friday we have two possibilities now. At the beginning of the week we could rally into the 1.3040 area (or even higher breaking the 1.3065) level and then come back into the 1.2900 support; or,price could just keep moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. Hereunder are the two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price does not trade the next traditional short at the 1.3040 area, but just keeps moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. We could witness participation in the 1.2900 from professionals and Program Trading.

Scenario 2. If the Euro gets a bid on Monday price could move higher into the 1.3040 area or above and then resume the move lower into the 1.2900 area. In the 1.2900 area or slightly below it we could witness participation from professionals and Program Trading.

As usual I am interested in your views and, if I don't see your replies please remind them to me with a PM (sometimes I jump over answers, sorry for that).
Thank you.

PS: the related video analysis will be on my blog shortly.

Cheers
G.

A look at what some are saying on the €uro.
Jens Nordvig, global head of FX strategy at Nomura Securities.

"We expect a continued gradual decline in EURUSD driven by euro zone growth underperformance."

LINK to the original article.

Below 1.2700 I will be with them.... but not before that...

Giusto! Ma le prospettive di ripresa economica nella zona euro non sono buone come negli Stati Uniti. Vediamo cosa succede!

Ma non sono migliorate dalla scorsa estate, eppure il prezzo dell'Euro e' salito. Dunque cio' dimostra il cambio euro-dollaro non dipende solamente dalla situazione economica Europea, ma da tante cose, incluse le politiche monetarie. Anzi voglio azzardare che in questo momento dipendono solamente da quello... vediamo cosa succede, ovviamente, ma nelle mie analisi dico cosa guardo e cosa faccio ... ;-)

Fed injected some 100bln dollars to EU banks last weeks. Things must be really bad.

When were they really good?

Dear Fibstalker,

I understand one sentence at the time, in Italiano! Non troppo...

Anyway, I guess I understood the message: the price of the Euro does not depend only of the economic recovery, but also of the monetary policies !


Saluti

Sorry Hatzerim, your italian is so good.
Yes basically that was it!
We will see, price will tell the story

Saluti
G.

Hello,
what's the current correlation between the Euro and the S&P500? While I leave that question to intermarket analysts, this is my view on the S&P500 e-mini for next week. Let me know what you think.
Thanks!

Last week scenario 2 played out and price keep moving higher into the first target at 1,544 because the 1,489 area of support was already tested successfully. The second target is higher at 1,576.
The inner move on the daily chart had support in the 1499 area and price never moved below 1,493. This long setup hit both first and second targets, respectively at 1,530 and 1,546,last week.

The following two scenarios were identified (refer to the below picture):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362935379

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next extension long measured move on the daily chart and then resumes it's move higher into the first target at 1,554 and then into the second target at 1,564, helping price into the final target at 1,576.

Scenario 2. Price corrects deeper into the 1522 area and then resumes the move higher towards the 1,576 target.

Have a great trading week.
Cheers
G.

Week 11 Mar 2013
EURUSD neural s-range

1.2945 - 1.3004

Updating spreadsheet and screen shot of the same.

Edit: corrected an error in the spreadsheet - new set uploaded at 2:33pm Sydney time

What has happened to pip?

Morning Report - Quiet Day ?

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0130311185565/

Snippet:

Euro is still struggling around 1.3 psychological level against dollar for the moment but it looks vulnerable. EU leaders will meet again later this week in Brussels on the bailout terms for Cyprus. IMF chief Lagarde noted that need for Cyprus to address debt sustainability with path to return to growth and markets. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said there is a "complicated situation" in Cyprus. In Italy, president Napolitano is so far avoiding to call a new election and said that he may consider a national-unity government and accept a minority cabinet under Bersani. Fitch said last week that "the increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession," and warned that "the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe."

Latest CFTC data showed further deterioration in positioning in most major currencies in the week to March 5, including EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD. Euro net shorts rose to 26.1k, up from 9k, that's sharp deterioration from the 38.0k net longs back in early February. Yen net shorts rose slightly 73.4k, up from 65.3k. Sterling net shorts rose to 43.8k, up from 36.1k. That's also the seventh straight week of deterioration. And note that the best positioning in the last 12 months was 37.3k net longs back in December. Aussie net longs dropped to just 7.1k contracts, that compares to 208.8k net longs back in January. Taht's the sixth straight week of deterioration. Further deterioration will turn Aussie into net short territory. Canadian dollar net shorts rose for another week to 46.7k, up from 21.4k and was that seventh straight week of deterioration.
Sterling continues to be the weakest European majors recently and it would also be reflected as GBP/AUD dropped to new record low last week. It breached 1.4554 low set back in 2012 and reached slow as 1.4534 before recovering. The long term triangle pattern from 1.4758 has completed at 1.5883 already and the do end trend has resumed. fall from 1.5883 is a medium term down trend is self and should target 200% projection of 1.5883 to 1.5182 from 1.5673 at 1.4271. We'll hold on to this bearish view as long as 1.4882 resistance holds.

Good Morning everybody...

Heh, is this another boring Monday?
This is a video I got yesterday from Jason Stapleton.
It was yesterday, so some info might be outdated, but it's interesting EURUSD technical review for this week.
The EURUSD analysis takes first 6 minutes, the rest is dedicated for some other pairs, for those who are interested.

Thanks Currency Man and Halkins for your posts. I always look forward to your insights,

shorting everything against CAD looks like a good idea atm

OK...
Here's fundamental analysis from Alpi guys.
EuroZone starts from1:38min, and the guy there isn't too optimistic about Euro...

That may be fundamentally a good reason to go long the Euro...

I see the Euro more likely to go down than up.

That will depend in large part in the direction of the Equity markets.

The Dow is at an All TIME high and the first bad fundamental news that comes out may lead to a sell off.

Risk Off is Euro negative. The IMF and ECB meet to discuss Cypress and the situation in Italy is not clear. The British Pound is weak and there seems to be less concern in the USA now because of Fridays NFP.

That is my view for the moment.