Sonic R. System

GJ spinning..

gonna breakout soon..

Sonic

Which direction though? Thats the questions.

Well, for me it seemed that this was valid entry.
PA wave starting from above the dragon and seemingly bouncing from resistance level, piercing both dragon and trend as seen on this attached chart.

Jumped in short trade at 1.3038 after breaking pivot in my chart. Dragon and trend pointing down, bud dragon above trend. It is a bit late post, i`ve already moved to be. First tp is 1.300

Closed at 1.3026. Maby too early, but it seemed there was support area.

I might be wrong, but I think Mr. tah would now say;"Added scout long EU".

If I'm right here, Sonic R System relies also on support/resistance levels? The short PA wave has already formed on 15m chart, but there is support(trend) line to be seen on 1h chart (attached screenshot). If the price breakes through 1.3015 I think it will continue down.

Wishfully Bullish...



Sonic

EURAUD short based on the red wave. Exited as there is no momentum after 1.5 hours from entry..

EU is this valid setup??

ATM I'm seeing two possible setups.

Anyone else seeing these?

Too much absorbing volume for me.
I'm in only for long setup.

+45pips...

EU Comment:

Here is my perception of what happened today, and what might be in store for the rest of the week.

A bear PA wave (blue lines) presented itself going into the London session. Then price dropped to the 3/4 area and bounced back up to local SR (red line) and began dropping again. In concert with the USD ADP release, the price was pushed down thru the TL (black line), back up to it, and then the real move for profits got underway.

It is just possible the MMs correctly anticipated the tone of the ADP release and loaded up with shorts yesterday, which caused the drop from the highs yesterday. Then the MMs worked the price back up so today they could again resume a second round of shorting from the same highs. Reloading of shorts is a strategy when the MMs really don't anticipate much of a drop. They can still make good profits if they simply have larger positions. The way the chart is now, the drop today has not even achieved the previous lows for the week. In fact, the price is doing nothing more than continuing to range!

The next major event is the USD NFP release on Friday. Historically this has been a rubber bullet, something that could cause a 100+ pips move, but which would almost inevitably be reversed days, or even hours later. Now, with the ADP release always preceding by two days the NFP release, and usually having the same tone as will the NFP release, there are two rubber bullets. So, the MMs might pump price back up ahead of NFP so they can drop it again at the NFP. Or, the MMs might just keep price low until NFP while closing shorts and opening longs and then ram the price up at NFP; a surprise move to make them good profits. All this is speculation, but touches on the realities of how and why the market behaves the way it does.

So, what will happen? Who knows? For now, the price has not even achieved the previous lows of the week. Furthermore, the drop today has not even been for the full average day range! That is not very bearish, and so the idea that the MMs are bulls that simply put on a bear move today still has merit. And this is what I said in my previous post on what might happen today.

For me, I am going to wait to see what the MMs do with the price now that they have it close to previous lows. Based on what I see over the rest of today and into tomorrow, I might add to my longs.

-tah

GU Comment:

And here is my take on this one.

This is the same "story" as for EU (above). With ADP past and NFP ahead, the MMs are just ranging it for profits. As such, the move down is not a true indication that the MMs are bears. The could be bulls that have just temporarily put on a bear move. And this works for them two ways if it is the case. Firstly, the bear move got them profits on temporary shorts they started acquiring yesterday and completed at the highs today. Secondly, it got them a low price once more to add to their longer term long positions. And this begs the realization that it is just possible the MMs willl keep price down until NFP and ram it up then. Why? It would give them time to close all their temporary shorts for profit and then to open more longer term longs, on which they start to make money if they start a longer term up move in concert with NFP on Friday.

Yes, this is speculative, but as I said in the EU post, it goes to the hows and whys of market behaviour. Of course, this particular hypothesis could easily be misproven by later price action. Of that, we must always be aware. But for now, the price has not even achieved previous lows and is just ranging, which is not very bearish considering this was the ADP release the market supposedly "acted on."

I do not intend any further adds to my GU long positions as I already have enough, including at these very low prices. So, for me it is just a waiting game.

-tah

Master, I feel about this the way you do.

The 141.00 whole number area is currently popular, with the MMs oscillating the price around it while they do.......something. What is it they are doing? Well, when price goes nowhere it usually means the MMs are building a position, which can entail also closing positions. This can be a process that takes time, depending on the size of the positions involved. Keep in mind that MMs cannot just wave a magic wand and get rid of all their no longer wanted positions. They need suckers to take them! So, runing the price up and down often is the way to suck the needed suckers into the market,......on the wrong side!

Which side is the right side? The most recent PA might be the clue. MMs love to build long below the whole number. And that is where they have been dipping it, but while keeping a lot of the PA looking bullish above the whole number. The last dip today was followed by a strong rebound back up above the whole number, which can be indicative of strong buying; maybe the final buying below the whole number and a prelude to the kickoff! Over past days the lows have been getting higher, and with the dips back to lows also followed by strong rebounds.

This pair is one that can move in the Asian session. Therefore it is one to keep an eye on, considering this price action.

-tah

USDCHF: Stopped out for 15 pips loss, EP1 to SL1. Much after trade started, set SL above previous high, just in case. As it turned out, this late day trade on M5 never even made it to the lower whole number, then bounce strongly, and became a long setup.....that I was not around to see.

GJ Comment:

Late US session trading now has price at half number S&R (just below, actually). No bull confirmed unless a breakout and backtest (backtest= MMs encourage shorts one more time and match them with longs, as well as hitting stops on the longs of others). In late US session this is going to happen? Hardly! Or, at least very unlikely. More likely would be a pullback now, and let the Asian session MMs ram it up. There are a couple of JPY high impact releases early in the Asian session, so that would be the likely time. We'll see.

This has a day range of almost 200 pips, so if this goes on a bull run in the next session, it could easily hit the 143.00 S&R area!

-tah

UJ: Entered short trade #2, a Scout. This Scout is based on rise in price back towards the gap-up highs, from which there was a huge selloff. Seems to me the volume has been weakening the higher the price has gone back up, meaning less and less interest, or that traders are more and more wary of being bullish about the highs. This is also based on the price being manipulated above a whole number late in the US session because the late US session is a low activity period making it easier for MMs to manipulate prices to where they want them. They don't run prices up on themselves if they are buying! Above whole numbers are where MMs like to build short positions. Obviously, the MMs can take the price higher. No SL and no target are yet set. With NFP coming Friday, things could remain too volatile for a SL, and meaningless in terms of final direction.

Both trades have been made under what I consider Pump & Dump considerations. We will see. With a day range now of over 100 pips and two days to go this week, the price could conceivably end at/near RWL, for a gain of almost 200 pips average for each of the two trades.

-tah

EU: Added long trade #3, a Scout. This Scout trade is based on the price having been returned to previous lows, from which there have been strong buying bounces. Also, this is an area below a whole number, where MMs like to build longs, and the most recent PA down here has had higher HLs. This was pullback in that series of higher HLs. Certainly, the MMs can take price lower.

The first trade was a Sonic R. long. MMs quickly pulled the price down and at the lows achieved trade #2 was entered on the basis that the move down was a Torpedo & Buy senario. Indeed, price rose afterwards, but the MMs chose to torpedo the price once again, using the USD ADP release today as the excuse. My assessment of PA is that the MMs simply are bull MMs putting on a bearish price show to get shorts active so the MMs can add longs.

The day range on this pair is over 100 pips. If the MMs put on a bull run to finish out the week, price could reach the RWH area, and each of the three trades could average close to, or more than, a 200 pips gain. We will see.

-tah