USD/JPY Discussion

Nice hanging man on the weekly. This puppy is going down fast.

I hope after testing 93 another run up follows.

I expect the great battle to be at the fields of 94.50, a failure here and I'd have to raise a white flag as a bull on this pair. But if breaks to up this area, then 100 is waiting with a big smile.
Just my 2 cents...

Hello all,
the Dollar Index is the King and it's good to analyze where/when it could top-out. This is my latest analysis for it, which could be useful to trade all the major currencies trading against USD.

The Dollar Index could be very close to a reversal. On the daily chart, the sequence of measured moves higher, which was currently trading in extensions long, failed with price moving below 82 (I had indicated that level in the free weekly Newsletter). That failure, along with the traditional long that offered support yesterday and today (see scenario 1 below) is pointing to highs at 82.78-85 or slightly higher.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1362580767

Following are the two scenarios I was able to identify. I think the second scenario has less probability to take place:

Scenario 1. After failing the sequence of measured moves higher, with price moving below the 82 level, the Dollar Index found support in the same area. The 81.90 level held indicating a target in the 82.78 level. This is very close to the 82.84 first target of the failed extension long (Busted setup pattern). So I anticipate price moving into the 82.70-90 and then a swift move lower due to profit taking.

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility for price to continue higher, but that would mean that the Euro-Dollar could not find participation at the 1.2900 area.

Let me know your thoughts.
Thank you
Have a great day
G.

And the climb continues


UBS-Their year-end USD/JPY forecast has been revised to 100 from 85. Always nice when the big boys follow you

Bearish Butterlfy

If BOJ decision is very dovish we will see 95 tomorrow... After 94.45 there is nothing. Will be checking in tomorrow.

DXY up, US 10 Y t-notes down = ideal setup for UJ bulls (like now). I wonder if UJ would chill out in a case of falling DXY

not if the yen falls faster

I hope so, I'm heavy loaded with UJ longs (and some GJ).

80% of my account is in UJ,, holding for 115-120

If this thing goes to 115... tequila for everyone here

Here's some interesting observation about S&P500 and UJ : http://stks.co/p4eZ

Thanks for the link, good reading

I will remember the tequila part hahaha,

"Two fingers" would be nice medicament and refresh after the long jorney from 90s to 115. Although I expect 108, this is an important number in Buddhism ( I'm practicing Wing Chun which is Chinese but nevermind ). "Time will tell" as Bob Marley said once.
Hope BoJ wouldn't spoil the party.

Looks like 94.06 is holding...we'll see. Short with a tight leash.

Possibility for retrace to 50 fib, drawn between 93-94.

so short, targeting 93.5 before 95,

93.5 looks good and appears to be right before the next majorish demand area.

This trade seems to be high risk, low reward (risking 100 pips to make 50 pips + going counter trend); specially before monetary policy statement from the BOJ coming shortly..

I may think about adding to my long position on a pullback with a SL around 92.8 but I'm too conservative to go against the trend here even though I agree with you that a small pullback is likely ...

Morgan Stanley on UJ : http://stks.co/cMet

"Morgan Stanley invested $10 million in a long USD/JPY call spread expiring in September with a low strike at 96 and a high strike at 100. "

Soros is looking for a next leg up. But I think it would be too easy. Need to shake the small guys out first.