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At What Point Do You Give Up On Forex

  • #301
  • Edited 4:10pm Mar 2, 2013 2:10pm | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting Forexia
First, I just want to say it's us, retail traders, not by ourself but as a whole aggregate group, are the ones who are making the market efficient; we are the ones who are making EU spread as small as 0; we are the ones who make sure the global bank that katrooo works can't charge an arm & leg for commissions and fees for exchanging currencies. The Big Banks would LOVE for us to give up so they can go back to the good o' days where they can make billions of $$ just on spread and commissions.



There was once an examination of Oanda's client...
hello Forexia,

I am sorry to say it, but you are very wrong in many points.

First paragraph: There is no way and chance that retail is making FX efficient, I do not have exact numbers but my estimate is that retail ~ 1% of volume in FX market. FX retail trading is done via leverage, the way how retail brokers hedge their exposure do not affect the market in some cases (e.g matching orders, trades, separate books etc). Even if they hedge, their volume is very low to affect the market / increase the overall liquidity. To give you a better overview, you have hundreds of banks which make markets in G10 or EM FX and which provide the liquidity to market participants in interbank OTC market. This market is created mostly by institutional and corporate subjects. Institutional group means central banks, pension funds, government SPVs, hedge funds, asset management firms, also retail brokers (very small part) and corporate means all the different oriented subjects, like Coca Cola, Siemens etc who are hedging their cashflows in the FX market. Hopefully you are smart enough to understand how big and liquid this market is. There are thousands of big institutions which engage in FX trading and retail is incredibly small part of it, therefore banks do not give a sh*t if you trade it or not. From my own experience I can tell you that 100 million ticket in EURUSD does not move the market ussually, because it is extremely liquid. There are situations when big hedge funds / asset managers roll over their exposure and they ask for 1 yard in EURUSD and they get a quote with 3 pips spread from the biggest FX houses (meaning DB, Citi, UBS).

Second paragraph: If you are inteligent enough, you can interpret this data in a bit different way. What does it mean that 25% of forex retail traders were profitable in ONE quarter? In statistical perspective it does not mean anything, do you have a proof that the same 25% set of people were profitable in prior 10 quarters (at least) and the same set of people will be profitable in next following years? I guess you cant. Many people trade FX in a gambling - similar way, so it is not that hard to stay profitable in a quarter, so maybe in the next quarter you will see again the same number of 25% but with completely different set of people. I would trust the statistics if Oanda showed how many people were consistently beating the market in last 5 years, they were using sound risk management (which can not be checked in any way), and traded at least few hundred times in that period. Honestly, I do think that we would see extremely small number, probably in a 1-3% range.

Third paragraph: I studied at the university (not MBA) and I am doing well, and I think it was worth it. It is still definitely better to have good education and experience a.k.a exit opportunities than to fully rely on trading. Now I am not talking about someone who can do it full time and can trade it in a size which will make him a decent living. I also know many other people who studied MBA at top universities and they are doing extremely well, so it obviously depends on which kind of MBA your friends have. Salaries you can get later on are extremely rewarding, so I think that your words are bit weird. If you are telling me about so called "FREEDOM", why would you not trade for a hedge fund for 1 YEAR, making those 10 millions if you are that good, then you finish your job and you have your FREEDOM. In one year you can be totally independent and then you can even trade with those 10 millions if you wanted.

Whatever, I wish you good luck on your trading journey
  • #302
  • Mar 2, 2013 3:21pm Mar 2, 2013 3:21pm
There's a lot of points that don't jive well with me either about Forexia's post; but I think they were pretty much all addressed.

As for the original question; I don't think I would. There are far too many paths to success in forex; a person just has to keep exploring them until they find the right one for them. With the massive amount of access to demo accounts there's really no reason that one cannot be found.
  • #303
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:06pm Mar 2, 2013 4:06pm
Quoting Forexia
Haha! You answered to my repost too quickly. I re-edited my post quite a few times to address the many issues raised in katroo's post. :-)
My apologies, I have a strong tendency to edit my posts after the fact as well (always have wondered why FF doesn't have a 'preview' feature).

Quoting katrooo
Third paragraph: I studied at the university (not MBA) and I am doing well, and I think it was worth it. It is still definitely better to have good education and experience a.k.a exit opportunities than to fully rely on trading. Now I am not talking about someone who can do it full time and can trade it in a size which will make him a decent living. I also know many other people who studied MBA at top universities and they are doing extremely well, so it obviously depends on which kind of MBA your friends have. My opportunity cost in studying...
I say this with respect, but I believe you are very much in a position of privilege. Even if we did have the money to spend on going to school for a master's degree, obtaining a paying internship like you have which I quote makes you "much more money than a big majority of [the] UK population" is a rarity indeed and no doubt highly competitive. And in order to trade for a big hedge fund, is it not true that one needs to know how to trade profitably in the first place? You don't learn how to trade with an MBA, and to learn to trade, you really have to teach yourself or be lucky enough to have a strong, successful mentor, typically reserved for the capitalist elite class passing on their wealth to their own.

It is clear that you have good experience in the financial markets, and I appreciate your posts. I would like to ask this, however - have you ever traded at a level that was consistently profitable?
  • #304
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:25pm Mar 2, 2013 4:25pm
I am sorry, that was a bit arrogant of me. I understand that not everybody is being motivated by parents to have good studying results, to pursue the degree etc., but that was not the aim of my post. I just wanted to react on forexia's post, in which he/she was talking about no-needs of education in particular.

It seems to me that you think that I am that type of guy who studied at top college, got a lot of money from parents and landed a top job. Just to make it clear, I am from poor family, and I studied at average university. On the other hand, I worked hard since my 16 years, spended all my free time in front of market until 2 am, then getting up early to school.

Actually I have blown my first account which I had with Oanda, but that was when I was 18 years old, since then I traded only on institutional level (since 20). I got the internship at the local bank which was quite strong in FX. They let me do some prop for them after several months and I have made very nice money for them (on a consistent basis), also got a full time offer there to become fulltime FX flow and prop trader with yearly P&L targets etc.

Quoting Kanzler
My apologies, I have a strong tendency to edit my posts after the fact as well (always have wondered why FF doesn't have a 'preview' feature).
I say this with respect, but I believe you are very much in a position of privilege. Even if we did have the money to spend on going to school for a master's degree, obtaining a paying internship like you have which I quote makes you "much more money than a big majority of [the] UK population" is a rarity indeed and no doubt highly competitive. And in order to trade for a big hedge fund, is it not true...
  • #305
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:34pm Mar 2, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting katrooo
I am sorry, that was a bit arrogant of me. I understand that not everybody is being motivated by parents to have good studying results, to pursue the degree etc., but that was not the aim of my post. I just wanted to react on forexia's post, in which he/she was talking about no-needs of education in particular.

It seems to me that you think that I am that type of guy who studied at top college, got a lot of money from parents and landed a top job. Just to make it clear, I am from poor family, and I studied at average university. On the other hand,...
I think that's what a lot of people want to hear as well - that with dedication and real effort you can succeed in this business without already being part of the elite. How did you become involved with the local bank internship? Did you simply go up to them, show them your record and ask if they were interested or did they seek you out?
  • #306
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:42pm Mar 2, 2013 4:42pm
Passion is the answer..........

If you are not passionate enough to carry on to success, then you should stop now, because that is what it takes, dedication to make it..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #307
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:42pm Mar 2, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting Kanzler
I think that's what a lot of people want to hear as well - that with dedication and real effort you can succeed in this business without already being part of the elite.
Of course you can.

Are you people stupid?

Your desperate need for assurance is pathetic. Stop bitching and moaning, and learn to think for yourselves. That's the only way you'll make it in FX.

If you need to ask this question in the first place, it's best to give up now.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #308
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:47pm Mar 2, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting Xhale
Of course you can.

Are you people stupid?

Your desperate need for assurance is pathetic. Stop bitching and moaning, and learn to think for yourselves. That's the only way you'll make it in FX.

If you need to ask this question in the first place, it's best to give up now.
I already know what my edge is, I simply have to learn to use it correctly. But are you really going to blame people for asking what is possible when getting to this point requires such an investment of time and effort? Hardly - so stop being such a douchebag and give your arrogance a rest.
  • #309
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:50pm Mar 2, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Kanzler
I already know what my edge is, I simply have to learn to use it correctly.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #310
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:51pm Mar 2, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Xhale
Did you want to contribute to this thread or are you just here to troll? As an "actor" by profession I bet your trading profits are through the roof.
  • #311
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:52pm Mar 2, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting Kanzler
I think that's what a lot of people want to hear as well - that with dedication and real effort you can succeed in this business without already being part of the elite. How did you become involved with the local bank internship? Did you simply go up to them, show them your record and ask if they were interested or did they seek you out?
they were searching for an intern so I applied, it was supposed to be temporary 3 months placement, I have had few interviews and I showed a lot of passion, some knowledge and they picked me, and I stayed for more than 2 years in the end. I was very lucky with that.

I wish it to everyone, really. But the question is wheter it is worth it, because it is far from guaranteed. I think that if someone is working really hard, it is probably bit easier to make a killing in poker, it needs same character attributes like trading, but you are competing against few people and you can read them with practice. In FX you are competing against millions of people and you can hardly read them until you dont have any insider information.
  • #312
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:54pm Mar 2, 2013 4:54pm
It is possible to learn.................
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #313
  • Edited 5:52pm Mar 2, 2013 4:55pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting katrooo
hello Forexia,

First paragraph: There is no way and chance that retail is making FX efficient, I do not have exact numbers but my estimate is that retail ~ 1% of volume in FX market. FX retail trading is done via leverage, the way how retail brokers hedge their exposure do not affect the market in some cases (e.g matching orders, trades, separate books etc). Even if they hedge, their volume is very low to affect the market / increase the overall liquidity. To give you a better overview, you have hundreds of banks which make markets in G10 or EM...
Like I said, we have not reached market efficiency YET but we will get there. Everything starts small. The "global bank" that you work for today didn't start off as a global bank.


Quote
Second paragraph: If you are inteligent enough, you can interpret this data in a bit different way. What does it mean that 25% of forex retail traders were profitable in ONE quarter? In statistical perspective it does not mean anything, do you have a proof that the same 25% set of people were profitable in prior 10 quarters (at least) and the same set of people will be profitable in next following years? I guess you cant. Many people trade FX in a gambling - similar way, so it is not that hard to stay profitable in a quarter, so maybe in the next...

This was an illustration that the probability of making it in the Retail Forex market is NOT that grim and UNPROBABLE like how you believed. And yes, this is a study that has focused on the retail traders' success over a very short period of time and success over a longer term will be different and is very likely to be less BUT that is the same with investment in ALL financial instruments, stocks, bonds, mutual funds and etc. It is relatively easier to achieve a higher return in a shorter term than over a longer term in a consistent basis. The same for your global bank's profitability. But we don't look at our investment in stocks, bonds and mutual funds and ask ourselves "Is it worth it" when what's involved in being extremely successful in stock, bonds and even mutual funds trading takes just as much work and dedication?

Quote
Third paragraph: I studied at the university (not MBA) and I am doing well, and I think it was worth it. It is still definitely better to have good education and experience a.k.a exit opportunities than to fully rely on trading. Now I am not talking about someone who can do it full time and can trade it in a size which will make him a decent living. I also know many other people who studied MBA at top universities and they are doing extremely well, so it obviously depends on which kind of MBA your friends have. Salaries you can get later on are...

Well Congratulations!!! You are the lucky few who's able to go to the "prestigeous" top universities to get your university degree and be able to make a nice living without having to incur so much debt. Not all of us are lucky enough to have your "high" intelligence, wealth (to have been able to afford your education in the top university) and your chance to have landed a lucrative job after graduation. BUT we are determined to make it in our lives and Forex trading, we believe is the way. And NO, I will NOT make a living slaving for others no matter how much they throw at me. I carve out my OWN life doing what I want and that's that! This is what I believe and I know I am NOT alone.

So whatever, good luck in your corporate endeavours
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #314
  • Mar 2, 2013 4:58pm Mar 2, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Kanzler
Did you want to contribute to this thread or are you just here to troll? As an "actor" by profession I bet your trading profits are through the roof.
Good luck with your trading pal.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #315
  • Edited 5:22pm Mar 2, 2013 4:59pm | Edited 5:22pm
Quoting katrooo
they were searching for an intern so I applied, it was supposed to be temporary 3 months placement, I have had few interviews and I showed a lot of passion, some knowledge and they picked me, and I stayed for more than 2 years in the end. I was very lucky with that.

I wish it to everyone, really. But the question is wheter it is worth it, because it is far from guaranteed. I think that if someone is working really hard, it is probably bit easier to make a killing in poker, it needs same character attributes like trading, but you are competing...
Thanks for your reply...things are a bit different in the US with regards to smaller banks trading but I've known a couple of people on this forum who did go on to work for a prop firm and did quite well, so I was curious as to how you managed to get your position. And I agree with the premise of your earlier post...jumping on the trading bandwagon is risky and most will fail. That's just a risk we must accept if we want a chance at it.

Quoting Xhale
Good luck with your trading pal.
I don't think I'm alone here when I say I find your sarcasm and pretentious attitude extremely offensive. But hey, that's your right - and it's my right to have you share my ignore list with mercy_seat. Good luck with your trading pal.
  • #316
  • Mar 2, 2013 5:03pm Mar 2, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting Forexia
Well Congratulations!!! You are the lucky few who's able to go to the "prestigeous" top universities to get your university degree and be able to make a nice living without having to incur so much debt. Not all of us are lucky enough to have your "high" intelligence, wealth (to have been able to afford your education in the top university) and your chance to have landed a lucrative job after graduation. BUT we are determined to make it in our lives and Forex trading, we believe is the way. And NO, I will NOT make a living slaving for others...
you are absolutely wrong about this, if you want just read one of my recent posts on this page.
  • #317
  • Mar 2, 2013 5:17pm Mar 2, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting Xhale
Good luck with your trading pal.
This guy "exhale" is a dick. Just look at his last posts and all the threads he started. Six months ago he was asking how to compute position size and now he's an expert talking down to everyone. Funny and pretty weird.
  • #318
  • Mar 2, 2013 5:18pm Mar 2, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Pip Dawg
This guy "exhale" is a dick. Just look at his last posts and all the threads he started. Six months ago he was asking how to compute position size and now he's an expert talking down to everyone. Funny and pretty weird.
What a surprise. Love your avatar by the way!
  • #319
  • Edited 7:33pm Mar 2, 2013 5:59pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting Kanzler
My apologies, I have a strong tendency to edit my posts after the fact as well (always have wondered why FF doesn't have a 'preview' feature).
FF used to have that feature and it was very useful and I have absolutely no idea WHY they decided to take it away.

Quote
I say this with respect, but I believe you are very much in a position of privilege. Even if we did have the money to spend on going to school for a master's degree, obtaining a paying internship like you have which I quote makes you "much more money than a big majority of [the] UK population" is a rarity indeed and no doubt highly competitive. And in order to trade for a big hedge fund, is it not true that one needs to know how to trade profitably in the first place? You don't learn how to trade with an MBA, and to learn to trade, you really...

Absolutely agree!! My point exactly and I made it already. I still believe that even though we have not been blessed with the opportunities and the priviledge we can still make it with our own hard work and dedication. And at the end it's still worth it!! Bottom line is I am NOT going to let someone else tell me what I can or cannot achieve.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #320
  • Mar 2, 2013 6:18pm Mar 2, 2013 6:18pm
At what point? after1 bn, not before!!

abd
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