Give me premise or give me death....

An adaptation of our great Patrick Henry....

in all seriousness, i am itching for premise in all systems i consider trading with real money.... that is, if i can't see a logical reason for the strategy to work due to some inefficiency, then it is chalked up as a gamble...

i hope i am not the only one here that challenges trading beyond elementary charting.... i mean, we are talking about real dollars that can disappear with no guarantee of coming back...

You are beginning to sound like a broken record, but it's one of my favorite tunes It is important to remember that a edge can be anything from a positive expectancy with sufficient sample size to a actual exploitable loophole, they are just oh so hard to find, this in a nut shell is the traders job.

yes i thought it was worthy of its own thread....

looking backwards trades look great, but can we see the reason for them succeeding in the past and as we look toward the future....

(my hope is that people will post some threads/systems that are based on inefficiencies opposed to fibs/gann/MA crosses)

an excellent point you have about sample sizes.... charting systems with hundreds (thousands?) of trades can be acceptible too i suppose...

a great example is the Extreme-OS system on Collective2.... it is chart based and has shown an edge over several thousand trades....

i am seeing that you shuld be an old trader with a year or more experience. u disapoint me cos u sound like a newbie, a novice in d forex world o.

and i'm waiting for you to make some sense on ANY OF YOUR POSTS.

F U.

is that unique enought for you? get off my thread...

Sometimes the smaller picture is better than the bigger picture. Easier not to miss.

what does that mean, clouds?

Rather than focusing on weekly , or where it will be in a month, sometimes it's easier focus on daily, or 4hr, or 1hr, and specific levels you want buy or sell. Since EU has been in an 'up trend' it's moved an average of 4 pips a day, and most traders would not be happy with that. So when it's low priced, it's great time to buy for chance to break all-time highs, as up trends tend to do. When it's at high price, it's good time sell.

'Success is measured in finding simplicity amidst complexity and chaos.' -Anonymous

If a person ID's an inefficiency in the market they have only so much time before others figure it out and that inefficiency will no longer exists. Why would one publish the inefficiency?
I'm not talking about the 'altruistic newbie' that is so enamored about the 13/50 golden cross or the beautiful simplicity of the 20/10 Turtle Entry / Exit.

so you don't like charting?
what type of ineffeciencies would you be looking for?
I mean, the market is only a bunch of up and down on a windy day.
tdion, you have been on here a long time. -as well as I have.... You can't tell me you have not found at least 1 or 2 profitable systems that are long term?

good point

inefficiencies are hard to come by.... not knowing where to look.... maybe not recognizing them when you see them...

there is one inefficiency that i posted a thread about (merlin was doing this strategy for awhile too) ... but i have not moved forward trading it yet.... mainly because you need a custom DLL to do it

so the second best thing (that i have been reduced to) is trading chart patterns that are successful with a large sample size. it's not as good as cause/effect, but it has to do. (i hate charting)

mr. green, your signature made me laugh.

are you autotrading? //or manual. ?
generally , you end up building your own for autotrading.
I mean, if you are looking for a system 100% perfect (assuming a stop loss of x) than forex is not the best spot.
You will suffer at times, so no one could ever not disprove randomeness.
I mean, its a haul of intellect and thought, but there are profitable systems and eas.

Tdion, when someone hands over the info about an inneficiency to you dont forget to email it to me aswell.lol.

You realy think anyone would?

I doubt it alot, I think most things of real value will never turn up on this forum. Blind leading the blind for most part.

Have you looked at time based entries, there may be more than this... but for afew months last year there was a dump on the EU at exactly thesame time evry day. It alowed for a profit factor of 3.8 while it lasted.

The problem is, you want to catch these things as early as possible, but its impossible to notice them untill there is an abnormaly high sample of this outcome.

I think your looking for something set in stone, imo you wont find it. Nothing in life is that sure. Why should FX be any different.

Good luck and trading.

Leon

There are some good based time entries at end of day.but like anything
else they are not permanent. typically, you can find the lows of various currencies at 0:00 or 8:00 hours... I trade 4 hour stuff with ea so I probably can't help. I thought the point of all of this is to make money.. If there is a 100% effeciency .. that would make me rich fast!

Stick with demo accounts. Once you go "live", it will be the death of your bank account.