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  • #8,121
  • Feb 28, 2013 1:38pm Feb 28, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting motley tool
Hi Tim,

New to posting here, but not new to EW. The subdivisions of your count make no sense to me. From where your red 'x' is for minor 'a', pico 1 is a straight shot down, but then waves 3 and 5 are ABCs. So why it has the look of an impulse, your bars say otherwise.
No problem, posting your chart with your view.Wait for your chart
  • #8,122
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:19pm Feb 28, 2013 5:19pm
Where is everybody ? It looks like we're still on sub-wave 4 of the 5th wave down. But I'm not sure. Or do you think we already reached the end of down wave at 1.3053 ?
  • #8,123
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:49pm Feb 28, 2013 5:49pm
Somebody can tell me if I'm right on EURUSD:
Daily chart
2012.07.24 - start
2012.09.17 - 1
2012.11.13 - 2
2013.02.01 - 3
today or maybe some day next week can be 4 and reverse up looking for 5 an then correction ABC.
I want every coment about this please
thanks friends
  • #8,124
  • Feb 28, 2013 6:22pm Feb 28, 2013 6:22pm
What up OLU?
  • #8,125
  • Feb 28, 2013 6:30pm Feb 28, 2013 6:30pm
By the way I am out of the EU trade. Bad news I didn't reach my target. Good News +96 pip profit!! There have been 5 distinct waves so I took off my trade, but it makes me believe that we are still not done and we might be just on the first leg of this 5th wave down. Can anyone say possible 5th wave extension?. I said possible. If we come up tonight or morning where ever you are I want to see a good retracement to .3078
  • #8,126
  • Feb 28, 2013 7:12pm Feb 28, 2013 7:12pm
Hi MIG. It looks like a bottom. A channel between 1,3055 and 1,3068 (4 times touched 1,3068 and rejected, and in this last 20 min finnaly topped that level, although very marginally. I'm still confused. Are you saying that this could be still wave 1 of 5 ?
  • #8,127
  • Feb 28, 2013 8:10pm Feb 28, 2013 8:10pm
Quoting StarTracker
Hi MIG. It looks like a bottom. A channel between 1,3055 and 1,3068 (4 times touched 1,3068 and rejected, and in this last 20 min finnaly topped that level, although very marginally. I'm still confused. Are you saying that this could be still wave 1 of 5 ?
Yes, it is a possibility. Like I said in an earlier post, EW says that usually one impulse wave is an extended wave and it is usually wave 3. This senario we see wave 1 and wave 3 are similar, so there is a possibility that this wave 5 is extended, plus normally we see that impulse wave 5 SHOULD of went below .3017 the previous low. I think we have finished the five waves. The micro counts on 5 minutes verifies this. So either it is an extension and we still need to finish 2, 3, 4, and 5 or wave 5 is truncated. If truncation has occurred than we normally see faster momentum the opposite way. I think Franky and London should verify this. If we trade sideways good sign we will continue with downward trend.
  • #8,128
  • Feb 28, 2013 8:28pm Feb 28, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting motley tool
Hi Tim,

New to posting here, but not new to EW. The subdivisions of your count make no sense to me. From where your red 'x' is for minor 'a', pico 1 is a straight shot down, but then waves 3 and 5 are ABCs. So why it has the look of an impulse, your bars say otherwise.
Hi Motley,

Tim's count is valid. The chart is 1H timeframe so the subwaves are not visible. If you look at a 5min TF you will see that, for example, wave 1 (down from the red X) has 5 waves internally. We often post summary charts for the sake of being brief
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  • #8,129
  • Edited 8:56pm Feb 28, 2013 8:43pm | Edited 8:56pm
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Yes, it is a possibility. Like I said in an earlier post, EW says that usually one impulse wave is an extended wave and it is usually wave 3. This senario we see wave 1 and wave 3 are similar, so there is a possibility that this wave 5 is extended, plus normally we see that impulse wave 5 SHOULD of went below .3017 the previous low. I think we have finished the five waves. The micro counts on 5 minutes verifies this. So either it is an extension and we still need to finish 2, 3, 4, and 5 or wave 5 is truncated. If truncation has occurred than we...
EU:

I think we're in maybe wave (iv) of 5. The retracement happening now will provide some clarity.

But two concerns: a) the slight overlap of waves 1 and 4 (OK so its an impulse in a correction... but not very comforting for our count)
and b) should this overlap point to extension of the current wave 3 (of C), I'm not confident we currently have 1-2 (1)-(2) because the implied downside of an extended 3rd wave would take the entire decline to below 1.25! This is way out of proportion to the previous wave patterns. Believe me, I would like to see EU go down there but is it likely? Time will tell...

EDIT: Having said all that, also check out wave 3 (of C) - it is marginally shorter than wave 1 - so wave 5 would have to be shorter than wave 3... all this stacks up to say that the decline might be over. This last wave down is internally sound with respects to Fib relationships, so 5w might be in and UP on the cards. I'm going to wait for confirmation - there may be more downside or a blast above 1.3150
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  • #8,130
  • Feb 28, 2013 10:51pm Feb 28, 2013 10:51pm
Quoting venzen
EU:

I think we're in maybe wave (iv) of 5. The retracement happening now will provide some clarity.

But two concerns: a) the slight overlap of waves 1 and 4 (OK so its an impulse in a correction... but not very comforting for our count)
and b) should this overlap point to extension of the current wave 3 (of C), I'm not confident we currently have 1-2 (1)-(2) because the implied downside of an extended 3rd wave would take the entire decline to below 1.25! This is way out of proportion to the previous wave patterns. Believe me, I would like...
Hey Venzen here is what I am looking at...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,131
  • Mar 1, 2013 12:45am Mar 1, 2013 12:45am
Quoting MeInGraySuit
Hey Venzen here is what I am looking at...
Yes, I also feel the extension on your 1H chart is a possibility, especially since the retracement went to 61.8% of the 5w down since yesterday.

Just a comment on your count in wave Y - "Wave 3 always divides into an impulse." (EWP p86) - i see you have wave 3 going up as a-b-c-d-e. This is not cool counting - RN Elliott will weep

I reckon it's more like 3 sets of a-b-c (double three) between X and Y... see p53 EWP
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  • #8,132
  • Mar 1, 2013 12:59am Mar 1, 2013 12:59am
Quoting venzen
Yes, I also feel the extension on your 1H chart is a possibility, especially since the retracement went to 61.8% of the 5w down since yesterday.

Just a comment on your count in wave Y - "Wave 3 always divides into an impulse." (EWP p86) - i see you have wave 3 going up as a-b-c-d-e. This is not cool counting - RN Elliott will weep

I reckon it's more like 3 sets of a-b-c (double three) between X and Y... see p53 EWP
Nevermind the details inside the corrective count - the move from 1.3084 downwards looks really powerful
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  • #8,133
  • Mar 1, 2013 2:14am Mar 1, 2013 2:14am
Quoting venzen
Nevermind the details inside the corrective count - the move from 1.3084 downwards looks really powerful
No reason to get excited - the correction is ongoing and seems to be aiming much higher -> 1.3120?
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  • #8,134
  • Edited 4:22am Mar 1, 2013 3:27am | Edited 4:22am
I do wish people wouldn't keep labeling this as a 4th when we have had crossover. It either has to be an ending diagonal, (which it certainly does not look like), an A/B move (if corrective) or a standard 5/3 impulse degree...

Personally i dont like the fact that the low was 138.2% of the first set (W)... i'm not saying the recent low was the bottom, but its too risky either way, either drop to smaller timescales or look elsewhere!
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  • #8,135
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:48am Mar 1, 2013 3:48am
Like shorting Cable eg!
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  • #8,136
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:56am Mar 1, 2013 3:56am
Quoting The Cableguy
I do wish people wouldn't keep labeling this as a 4th when we have had crossover. It either has to be an ending diagonal, (which it certainly does not look like or ab A/B move... Personally i dont like the fact that the low was 138.2% of the first set (W)... i'm not saying the recent low was the bottom, but its too risky either way, either drop to smaller timescales or look elsewhere!
Some words of caution are always welcome.

The DJI has not got a confirmed top in. If it perhaps has topped it is far from having completed a 61.8% wave 2 retracement. The S&P is hanging around like a bad smell and not going anywhere. Should these indexes suddenly resume uptrend then the USD will drop like a stone and EU will go to the proverbial moon.

Counter-fundamentally, Gold and Silver are heading (in clean impulsive moves) for their respective support shelves like horses for water. I recently read the comment: "If Gold was truly an inflation hedge, it would be rising through all the last 4 years of QE." Exactly. Strange days.
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  • #8,137
  • Mar 1, 2013 3:57am Mar 1, 2013 3:57am
Quoting The Cableguy
Like shorting Cable eg!
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  • #8,138
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:22am Mar 1, 2013 4:22am
Quoting The Cableguy
Like shorting Cable eg!
"take what you can - give nothing back!"

http://ubuntuone.com/4aee8WVrViqlHJDzxecOFc
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,139
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:30am Mar 1, 2013 4:30am
Rightly or wrongly i've just banked 120pips (86 on half and 156 on second), I'm pretty frustrated with Cable and the Euro though to be fair. As you know, i've called Cable down all the way and yet haven't had a decent easy to read abc in all the time, no way to get a heavy position away... What i've actually banked is pitiful considering the distance traveled

My last chart showing a 3rd wave after an irregular abc;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...2h11-02-13.png
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  • #8,140
  • Mar 1, 2013 4:45am Mar 1, 2013 4:45am
Quoting The Cableguy
Rightly or wrongly i've just banked 120pips (86 on half and 156 on second), I'm pretty frustrated with Cable and the Euro though to be fair. As you know, i've called Cable down all the way and yet haven't had a decent easy to read abc in all the time, no way to get a heavy position away...
Yes, I'm looking at waves 3 to 5 on your chart and they are so zig-zaggy... I detest that: you want to get in but it looks so much like ongoing correction that you hold back and wait for a clear sign. Time passes and eventually you realize a bigger correction is unfolding - it's all over and you we're waiting like a scaredy-cat... Other times it seems so clear - wavecount, indicators, news - everything lines up, you get in and get closed out by a move that confirms your alternate count !
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