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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #981
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:22pm Feb 26, 2013 3:22pm
Quoting stevexyg
Let's ponder.


True practically speaking. But in the real world if you are still relatively inexperienced then it can be the case for example that every large green candle you see on the 1min chart is a 'trade you want to be in'. 'Damn I missed it'. Then five minutes later you 'see' (ie filter into your consciousness) another 'great' candle this time red and again you think 'I could have taken that, look 5pips profit'. In both of these situations you are flat and wishing you were in the trade. But crucially because you are not in the market you...
You are delving into the psychological side a bit here. From a learning standpoint you are probably right. You can learn a lot from taking bad trades. As a practical matter though for the survival of your trading account it is far better to be flat and wishing you were in a trade than in a trade wishing you were flat.
  • #982
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:45pm Feb 26, 2013 3:45pm
During London open, I notice that sometimes price only gets close to open price.

Do you subscribe to a "Zone" in lieu of a fixed price for taking trades?

Thanks
  • #983
  • Edited 4:55pm Feb 26, 2013 4:13pm | Edited 4:55pm
Quoting diamonddbw
During London open, I notice that sometimes price only gets close to open price.

Do you subscribe to a "Zone" in lieu of a fixed price for taking trades?

Thanks
I don't insist that the price be touched exactly. Often the best trades are tough to get to the pip as they are places where there is competition for the entry. Many of my entries are three or four pips away from the level.
  • #984
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:19pm Feb 26, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I don't insist that the price be touched exactly. Often the best trades are tough to get to the pip as they are places where there is competition for the entry. Many of my entries are three or four pips away fron the level.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks. That makes sense.

Sleeping more Now?
  • #985
  • Feb 26, 2013 5:20pm Feb 26, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting diamonddbw
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks. That makes sense.

Sleeping more Now?
A little, still transitioning.
  • #986
  • Feb 27, 2013 9:52am Feb 27, 2013 9:52am
After a couple of iffy days the new schedule is working out nicely. The kids are in bed by 9:30 and I go to sleep at 10:00. I don't have to get up until 4:00 am. Six wonderful hours of sleep. I am still able to make good pips so I think this is going to work out. I needed something to transition to weekly trading and I think this will do it. I will make a post tonite or tomorrow detailing my plan for the bigger trades for anyone who is trading bigger timeframes. It's basically the same but a few changes to the levels watched.
  • #987
  • Feb 27, 2013 10:24am Feb 27, 2013 10:24am
Quoting Seneca pilot
After a couple of iffy days the new schedule is working out nicely. The kids are in bed by 9:30 and I go to sleep at 10:00. I don't have to get up until 4:00 am. Six wonderful hours of sleep. I am still able to make good pips so I think this is going to work out. I needed something to transition to weekly trading and I think this will do it. I will make a post tonite or tomorrow detailing my plan for the bigger trades for anyone who is trading bigger timeframes. It's basically the same but a few changes to the levels watched.
That would be greatly appreciated, thank you.
  • #988
  • Feb 27, 2013 10:43am Feb 27, 2013 10:43am
Quoting TheMaxx
That would be greatly appreciated, thank you.
Definitely greatly appreciated.
Thanks
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #989
  • Feb 27, 2013 1:45pm Feb 27, 2013 1:45pm
Seneca, do you ever hold trades from the opening range breakout over the weekend? Or are you flat at market close on Friday?
  • #990
  • Feb 27, 2013 1:48pm Feb 27, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
After a couple of iffy days the new schedule is working out nicely. The kids are in bed by 9:30 and I go to sleep at 10:00. I don't have to get up until 4:00 am. Six wonderful hours of sleep. I am still able to make good pips so I think this is going to work out. I needed something to transition to weekly trading and I think this will do it. I will make a post tonite or tomorrow detailing my plan for the bigger trades for anyone who is trading bigger timeframes. It's basically the same but a few changes to the levels watched.
That's great! I am also interested to learn more about your bigger TF method.
  • #991
  • Feb 27, 2013 2:49pm Feb 27, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Seneca, do you ever hold trades from the opening range breakout over the weekend? Or are you flat at market close on Friday?
I close all trades on Friday by one or two hours before market close. I am not a fan of holding trades over the weekend. Price can gap past your stops. I don't have any really good reason other than that. Of course you can also benefit from gaps too.
  • #992
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:33pm Feb 27, 2013 4:33pm
The rules for the weekly levels are basically the same as the daily. The weekly open is still 05:00 GMT on Monday morning. I will still look for at least two bars not touching the open price before an entry is triggered. I will be using four hour bars though. Previous week high and low will still be traded as before. It will also be important to watch the weekly lows and highs from the weeks before the previous. If the previous week closes lower than the low of the prior week we will look to that prior week low as a place to short opposite will be true for longs. Stops will be 15-20% of four period average of four week ATR. Orders to sell weekly highs and buy weekly lows will be placed on Sunday night after market open to assure price doesn't gap past the entry and give us a bad fill. I will be planning to enter each trade with two units and take off partial profits at 1/1. Although I don't like this practice I feel that it will be important to help smooth the equity curve.

Four hour closes have more significance than fifteen minute or even one hour. This significance means that you don't have to necessarily wait for a stopout before you can reverse positions. If a four hour bar closes above a key level during a major market like London or NY It will often be good to reverse the position on a retest of the level.

One hundred pips will pay me well in a week. I will likely look to start protecting profits when nearing this level of profit. I have not settled on how exactly I will trail my trades. I will most likely exit at 3/1 if a trade reaches that point. The trader should take the time to test and find a method of exits and trailing stops that works for them. I will be planning to hold trades for at least three days with the weekly levels unless stopped out or profit is taken first.

A chart to illustrate some of these ideas.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly levels.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #993
  • Feb 27, 2013 5:14pm Feb 27, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
The rules for the weekly levels are basically the same as the daily. The weekly open is still 05:00 GMT on Monday morning. I will still look for at least two bars not touching the open price before an entry is triggered. I will be using four hour bars though. Previous week high and low will still be traded as before. It will also be important to watch the weekly lows and highs from the weeks before the previous. If the previous week closes lower than the low of the prior week we will look to that prior week low as a place to short opposite will...

Why would you NOT enter Short based on your chart on 20-Feb around 4:00 - 12:00 ??

That place is a re-test of a Weekly Low from 3 weeks ago, a good resistance point for Short with 2 re-test very short bars and 1 bear engulfing bar.

All the best for your weekly trading.
  • #994
  • Feb 27, 2013 5:34pm Feb 27, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting foxybunny
Why would you NOT enter Short based on your chart on 20-Feb around 4:00 - 12:00 ??

That place is a re-test of a Weekly Low from 3 weeks ago, a good resistance point for Short with 2 re-test very short bars and 1 bear engulfing bar.

All the best for your weekly trading.
Had I traded this week off the four hour chart I would have been long off the weekly open and probably exited when the two pinnish doji type bars were broken to the downside. I don't know if I would have shorted or not. It was in the area of a weekly low as you noticed so I may have shorted there. I do know that the way I trade I would have been long into that level from the weekly open.
  • #995
  • Feb 27, 2013 5:47pm Feb 27, 2013 5:47pm
There will be weeks when the initial weekly open is not hit again. When this happens I will trade each day's open in the same way until there is an entry. Of course, if a weekly high or low is hit first that will be the initial entry.

A chart to explain:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly levels.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #996
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:21pm Feb 27, 2013 6:21pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Had I traded this week off the four hour chart I would have been long off the weekly open and probably exited when the two pinnish doji type bars were broken to the downside. I don't know if I would have shorted or not. It was in the area of a weekly low as you noticed so I may have shorted there. I do know that the way I trade I would have been long into that level from the weekly open.
Just like you would want to Short on a Daily High, and Long on a Daily Low, you may consider this for Weekly Low/High.

The hint is to leave those lines for 1-4 weeks longer and see the re-test.

Similar idea to daily, note that I don't trade on weekly, so you may want to consider leaving those weekly lines longer and observe for yourself what happened during re-test of those past longer levels.
  • #997
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:32pm Feb 27, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting foxybunny
Just like you would want to Short on a Daily High, and Long on a Daily Low, you may consider this for Weekly Low/High.

The hint is to leave those lines for 1-4 weeks longer and see the re-test.

Similar idea to daily, note that I don't trade on weekly, so you may want to consider leaving those weekly lines longer and observe for yourself what happened during re-test of those past longer levels.
This is my first real move into longer term trading. I have always been on the fifteen minute up to one hour charts. I intend to keep the lows and highs for at least three weeks. I don't want too many in the chart as I think that would lead to confusion. I do think however that anything within the past three weeks will be pertinent to the current week's trading. I am sure I will have to sharpen and amend the rules as I go. I do wish I had started on the longer charts when I was new. I know the basics of my trading style will transfer to the longer charts I may just need a few weeks to sharpen my skills.
  • #998
  • Edited 11:09pm Feb 27, 2013 10:58pm | Edited 11:09pm
Awesome, Seneca. Sounds like a great way to trade the higher timeframe.
Have you decided yet what pairs you will trade on H4?
  • #999
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:13am Feb 28, 2013 4:13am
Seneca, what are your thoughts on a broker like www.betonmarkets.com ... fixed bets. Clearly you can't make more than double your bet on most bets, so it's more of an entry type bet for Rise/Fall. Basically you see EUR/USD at 1.3100 and take a bet that it'll be higher or lower within next hour or two, could be a day or more etc. With that type of bet you have no stop loss, you don't have to think about taking profit, simply get the right entry and the desired/proper time for it to ride.

If someone has a method that wins 55% or more it would do really well.
  • #1,000
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:23am Feb 28, 2013 5:23am
Quoting Ck87
Seneca, what are your thoughts on a broker like www.betonmarkets.com ... fixed bets. Clearly you can't make more than double your bet on most bets, so it's more of an entry type bet for Rise/Fall. Basically you see EUR/USD at 1.3100 and take a bet that it'll be higher or lower within next hour or two, could be a day or more etc. With that type of bet you have no stop loss, you don't have to think about taking profit, simply get the right entry and the desired/proper time for it to ride.

If someone...
In my opinion it will be much more difficult to make money in that way. Reasons being:

1.) When betting whether a currency will be higher or lower after a certain duration, your reward for being correct is always less than what you are betting. That is your R ratio ranges between 0.8 - 1. Therefore you have to be right more than 50% of the time just to break-even.

2.) When betting whether a currency will be higher or lower a certain value after a certain duration, you have to be correct in both the direction and time. I don't know about you, but getting the direction correct is hard enough already.

It's definitely not something I'll get myself involved in.
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