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  • #961
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:36pm Feb 25, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I have to begin by saying I was trading EJ today as I have been in the yen pairs for the past weeks. In looking at EU from today I am sure I would have taken a loss at the Friday high. I might also have taken a loss at the weekly close/open level when it came back down. Once that level was broken though I would have shorted the retest and made the losses back as price blew right through last week's low and went down 100+ pips. It is relatively common on a volatile day like today to take a couple of hits before you get the trade that survives....
SP, the bolded line means that you would have taken a loss on the assumption that you placed a buy entry off the weekly close/open level. When i analyze the price at that level last week on Friday in a 1 Hr chart, it shows that price went up after that, then rolled down thereby creating a red bar. It kept going down the Asian session of today.

Now, here comes my question: Putting in consideration that this is neither a daily high/low which gives you a quick concise decision to fade it, how do you come to the conclusion that price is definitely going to bounce off that level and go up instead of pearsing through like it did?
  • #962
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:46pm Feb 25, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting square1
SP, the bolded line means that you would have taken a loss on the assumption that you placed a buy entry off the weekly close/open level. When i analyze the price at that level last week on Friday in a 1 Hr chart, it shows that price went up after that, then rolled down thereby creating a red bar. It kept going down the Asian session of today.

Now, here comes my question: Putting in consideration that this is neither a daily high/low which gives you a quick concise decision to fade it, how do you come to the conclusion that price is definitely...
It was already tested from above you are correct. After the Italian elections and with price coming down so hard I may have waited for a short there. I am not sure, I did not watch it. I had set my EJ trade and gone to sleep. This weekly open/close price is a strong level and will often cause a reaction of some type. Today it didn't but that is not typical.

Trading is as much about feel as about rules. You seem to have made great strides in the weeks I have known you. You seem to be developing a nice feel for the market. You certainly have a nice grasp on the methods I have posted. I hope you took note of the post I made about taking the short side of the breakout trade today. That range can be played from both sides on a day like today. One entry method double the profits on one range.
  • #963
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:53pm Feb 25, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting square1
Stevey, for your 1st question, all i can say is always remember to "adapt to the ever-changing jungle landscape-thats the market". As stated before, it's not perfect all the time, price can be against the way you think it should be but when one finds themselves in such a scenario, they must allow thier mind to see and accept that its not the market against them but them against what they see in the charts. As for today's LO, it worked out perfectly for me. If you look at the 1 Hr chart (BTW SP's method is described in a way to help you trade...
Thanks for that square1.

I made a mistake (now corrected in my post) I meant DO (5AM GMT as marked on my chart) not LO. But your analysis is useful, I can see how the LO could have been played today just like the 5AM candle in that your bep/engulfing candle retraced to very close to the LO. And price was away for a good 4x15m candles. Yes I agree you need to be adaptive and open to market fluctuation, infact getting onboard this thread has been a big learning curve for me as I've never looked at levels or time frames in this way before. Really excellent trading today mate, well done and long may it continue.
  • #964
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:13pm Feb 25, 2013 3:13pm
I answered a pm just now and I thought I should post here to expand on my earlier post about the new method.

The method I have taught here is not broken. I have not abandoned the method. I have spoke at length in the past few weeks about my time problems. I have eight month old twins. I have been having increasing trouble with finding time to trade and get a decent sleep. My average night's sleep for the past few weeks has been three hours. I cannot continue to do that to my body. I will still be trading the levels I have taught here. I am simply transitioning to using the weekly levels and not the daily. The method is exactly the same.

My friend has been a mentor to me for about three years. He has helped me immensly in dealing with the mental side of trading. Until two weeks ago, though he has never said a word to me about method. I had mine and he had his. We basically just bounced ideas about trading basics and psychology off each other. At our last lunch meeting he noticed how tired my eyes were and our conversation turned to my sleep deprived state. I told him how I trade using fifteen minute charts for entry and taking profits before rollover each day. He advised me that I need to make my trading horizon longer and sleep more. He then gave me the method I am currently testing. It is still an intraday method but doesn't even fire off a trade for four hours after my method. This will allow me to do two things. First it will allow me to get a decent sleep each night, second it will give me a daily income while transitioning into the longer holding periods.

I will make a post describing in detail how my trading will change and how to plot the levels after the next two weeks. I am trading his method every day in the test account and taking screenshots to post into my trade logs. I won't show any charts until this is done as I will keep my promise to him and not reveal anything about the method. I am afraid I would accidently show a trade from that method as I have done that before in showing other things that I don't talk about.

In the mean time I will continue to support this thread and answer questions just as I have done since it started. For those of you who have the time it is still the best way to trade in my opinion.
  • #965
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:20pm Feb 25, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting diamonddbw
I did try using Friday Hi (1.3244) as a potential reversal on EU. Of course we all know how that worked out.

My question is, was this a valid set up or am I still missing something?

Price did make a fairly swift move to that area, and did react somewhat. When I noticed that the area was not really giving a strong reversal sign, that did water down my confidence in the position.

Any comments would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Darryl

"Whatever your past has been, you have a spotless future" ~ Melanie Gustafson
Hi Darryl, a few points:

Looking at the 5m I can see the initial push to 3242 (the Fri high on my feed) overshot by 6pips to 3248 then retraced not touching 3248 again for over an hour. Personally I would have taken 3248 as the SL at that point because that's obviously a new short term res level and going above could well mean a continuation. So only 6pips lost.

Second price fell 12 or so pips from your entry (14 from 3244) so is there a chance there to take a half profit (at 10pips) to cover your SL making it a break even trade if price pushes back up?

Lastly, looking at pa this push to a new high and 1H of consolidation is identical to the previous push up just before. Very similar pa. So would you be expecting price to behave differently if it were going to bounce down? Hope that helps. If in doubt read my sig.
  • #966
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:44pm Feb 25, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
As to the timeframe it really doesn't matter. Whether fifteen or five minute I still require thirty minutes of price not touching the daily open level before I will trade it. If you go back through the charts you will see that this is a necessary requirement. It caused us to miss a trade today and perhaps even caused a loss at the Friday high. If you decided to forego this requirement though the losses you would amass by being chopped up with false entries over the months and years would be staggering.

I know that you are trading around your work...
Your breakdown of the day on EU reminds me of you saying you have to be not afraid of jumping infront of a moving train. I get that impression more so looking at this big moving day. It's all about having your Stops in place, a sensible % of your account on each trade and believing in these levels. It's a bit like fire-walking isn't it? If you believe you wont get burnt then...you wont!? Serious question, have you ever done a fire-walk SP? And does it impact on your trading personality?

Yes as you say I've been exclusively scalping around worktime, not making pips but gaining a lot of chart time and general experience. And again yes this is a new discipline but as you say potentially if you have sufficient background knowledge and experience, trading daily levels can be a lot less time consuming and more achievable for someone not able to be at their workstation fulltime. To be a good scalper I firmly believe you need to be fresh, rested, alert and attentive. None of which I am when I get in from work.
  • #967
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:01pm Feb 25, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting stevexyg
Your breakdown of the day on EU reminds me of you saying you have to be not afraid of jumping infront of a moving train. I get that impression more so looking at this big moving day. It's all about having your Stops in place, a sensible % of your account on each trade and believing in these levels. It's a bit like fire-walking isn't it? If you believe you wont get burnt then...you wont!? Serious question, have you ever done a fire-walk SP? And does it impact on your trading personality?

Yes as you say I've been exclusively scalping around worktime,...
Never done a firewalk. I do have some experiences in life that make losing a little money shrink in comparison.

Some days it just takes getting hit by the train in order to figure out which way its going and jump on board.
  • #968
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:07pm Feb 25, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
My average night's sleep for the past few weeks has been three hours.


Wow SP that is not good. Really not good. I'm glad you are tackling the issue because you can come down with all sorts of not so nice illnesses when stressing yourself to that degree. And not just illnesses, you can get really grumpy too. Not you...I meant just people generally.

Hope your new method goes really well, don't stress about the thread there is plenty here to read and re-read and re-read while you're busy.
  • #969
  • Feb 25, 2013 4:12pm Feb 25, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting stevexyg


Wow SP that is not good. Really not good. I'm glad you are tackling the issue because you can come down with all sorts of not so nice illnesses when stressing yourself to that degree. And not just illnesses, you can get really grumpy too. Not you...I meant just people generally.

Hope your new method goes really well, don't stress about the thread there is plenty here to read and re-read and re-read while you're busy.
It has caused some problems. That is the reason for the changes.
  • #970
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:42pm Feb 25, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
It was already tested from above you are correct. After the Italian elections and with price coming down so hard I may have waited for a short there. I am not sure, I did not watch it. I had set my EJ trade and gone to sleep. This weekly open/close price is a strong level and will often cause a reaction of some type. Today it didn't but that is not typical.

Trading is as much about feel as about rules. You seem to have made great strides in the weeks I have known you. You seem to be developing a nice feel for the market. You certainly have a...
Thanks for the kind words, it just becomes easier everyday. I noticed and took note of that. Thanks for the heads-up.
  • #971
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:50pm Feb 25, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting stevexyg
Thanks for that square1.

I made a mistake (now corrected in my post) I meant DO (5AM GMT as marked on my chart) not LO. But your analysis is useful, I can see how the LO could have been played today just like the 5AM candle in that your bep/engulfing candle retraced to very close to the LO. And price was away for a good 4x15m candles. Yes I agree you need to be adaptive and open to market fluctuation, infact getting onboard this thread has been a big learning curve for me as I've never looked at levels or time frames in this way before....
Glad you noticed. Thanks for the kind words, the strategy pays off. Credit goes to SP, for his generosity.
  • #972
  • Feb 25, 2013 8:58pm Feb 25, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting stevexyg


Wow SP that is not good. Really not good. I'm glad you are tackling the issue because you can come down with all sorts of not so nice illnesses when stressing yourself to that degree. And not just illnesses, you can get really grumpy too. Not you...I meant just people generally.

Hope your new method goes really well, don't stress about the thread there is plenty here to read and re-read and re-read while you're busy.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

100% on board with you on both counts xyg.

SP has been a generous tutor. Now I need to be an 'A' student.

Sleep is THE most important thing we can do for ourselves and it's also FREE! This is the time when our bodies are the busiest conducting repairs. No Sleep=No Repairs. Kinda like most roads in Calif.
  • #973
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:49am Feb 26, 2013 3:49am
hi guys, hope your all good. i have been so busy ( i do work some times) plus studying trading. When i have some time i will ask questions. SP you need sleep or relaxation, try hypnosis or better still buy a house on the coast in uk like me , and then trade uk time during the day. Be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #974
  • Feb 26, 2013 8:19am Feb 26, 2013 8:19am
Quoting billytt
hi guys, hope your all good. i have been so busy ( i do work some times) plus studying trading. When i have some time i will ask questions. SP you need sleep or relaxation, try hypnosis or better still buy a house on the coast in uk like me , and then trade uk time during the day. Be good
Too cold, Tenerife maybe.
  • #975
  • Edited 9:08am Feb 26, 2013 9:04am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Too cold, Tenerife maybe.
Hi Seneca pilot,

Nice job, you doing on this thread. Learn a lot of your stuff.

Why not come to Singapore. Time differences is just the opposite of EST Time.

You can have the whole morning playing with your kids,(Hope they are fine) until 1.00 pm my local time(your time 1.00 EST) and trade right up to the London Close. Than you drop off to a good night sleep until whatever time you desire the next morning.

It is also the fourth or fifth largest FX trading center in the world. We have people like Jim Roger, Sonicdeejay, fti from FF and many foreign fund managers operating here.

Maybe, you can consider about it.

Rdgs
winwin
  • #976
  • Feb 26, 2013 9:14am Feb 26, 2013 9:14am
Quoting WinwinFx
Hi Seneca pilot,

Nice job, you doing on this thread. Learn a lot of your stuff.

Why not come to Singapore. Time differences is just the opposite of EST Time.

You can have the whole morning playing with your kids,(Hope they are fine) until 1.00 pm my local time(your time 1.00 EST) and trade right up to the London Close. Than you drop off to a good night sleep until whatever time you desire the next morning.

It is also the fourth or fifth largest FX trading center in the world. We have people like Jim Roger, Sonicdeejay, fti from FF and many...
I like Asia.
  • #977
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:27am Feb 26, 2013 11:27am
Some things to ponder:

It is far better to be flat and wish you were in a trade than to be in a trade and wish you were flat.

No position is a position

Entering trades is easy, profiting from those entries can be hard.

Winners must be larger than losers if you are to have long term success in trading.

If you are in doubt as to the correct action, take none until you get clarity.

It is better to be decisive and do the wrong thing than to do the right thing and be indecisive.

A bad plan can be detrimental, no plan can be catastrophic.

Winning money with negative pips will some day empty your trading account.

I'd much rather make money than be right about the market's direction.

Winners associate with winners.

Proper attitude is crucial to success.

If you truly believe you can, YOU CAN.

Only the very best succeed in any field, the rest work for them.

Education is important, experience is crucial.

Hope it helps.
  • #978
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:28pm Feb 26, 2013 4:28pm
Let's ponder.
Quoting Seneca pilot

It is far better to be flat and wish you were in a trade than to be in a trade and wish you were flat.
True practically speaking. But in the real world if you are still relatively inexperienced then it can be the case for example that every large green candle you see on the 1min chart is a 'trade you want to be in'. 'Damn I missed it'. Then five minutes later you 'see' (ie filter into your consciousness) another 'great' candle this time red and again you think 'I could have taken that, look 5pips profit'. In both of these situations you are flat and wishing you were in the trade. But crucially because you are not in the market you convince yourself could have made a profitable trade. You can spend weeks doing this, months even before you put up and shut up, put some money in an account then trade these candle trades you wanted to be in. In the blink of an eye you've lost your account as the reality of live trading collides with your narrow belief system you've built up around these little 1m 'winning candles'.

So was it better to be flat and wishing you were in a trade? No. You only realised you were blinkering yourself into only seeing what you wanted to see when you actually tried to trade your little system live. Being in a trade but wishing you were flat is the ultimate humbler. It teaches you so much. A significant failure in trading often knocks all the ill conceived beliefs out of you and if you are willing to dust yourself off and try again you do so with a valuable learning experience gained from being wrong. Maybe I'm being pedantic on this one?
  • #979
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:36pm Feb 26, 2013 4:36pm
Also the trades you see in hindsight that you wish you where in, are always the ones you would have held for the whole move! (in our mind we always run our profits right??!)

Sometimes the pain of potentially "missing out" is greater than the pain of getting in and risking a few dollars.
  • #980
  • Feb 26, 2013 5:20pm Feb 26, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting Hyperion
Also the trades you see in hindsight that you wish you where in, are always the ones you would have held for the whole move! (in our mind we always run our profits right??!)

Sometimes the pain of potentially "missing out" is greater than the pain of getting in and risking a few dollars.
Running profits has been a problem for me. As I try to transition to longer hold horizons with my trading it will resurface as a problem again. In the past few years forty to fifty pips has been a good and profitable day for me. As I try to transition into bigger timeframes with larger stops I am going to be forced to aim for bigger gains per trade in order to maintain the same profitability. I sometimes wish I had started on the big timeframes and learned to hold trades as a small trader. It would make this transition easier.

Yes if you are trading without a plan it can be excrutiating to watch price move, sometimes a hundred pips and you have no mechanism for entry.
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