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  • #481
  • Jun 8, 2006 11:34am Jun 8, 2006 11:34am
Quoting trucco
best idea was to stay out

sometimes I choose also the right things
Why stay out? Man there are guys I know who got 160 pips today.
One guy I know made 10K

the smart money push the EUR, GBP way down

thanks
"We are the superior beings, we obey no one!"
  • #482
  • Jun 8, 2006 11:36am Jun 8, 2006 11:36am
Quoting lindamartinfx
today the $ rules...all day since morning we could tell it aint gonna be an easy ride for the euro...ok the hike was well priced in and it wasnt a 50 points hike...BUT all that me trichet said was euro positive...did anyone heard him??? NOOOO.... why??? well the dolar today not only rose BUT broke all resistance on 1.27 and 1.2650 and now threatens 1,26.... in my opinion whatever happened today with ECB wasnt at all a driver for the dolar strenght....It is Fed positive comments that still hungs in the air and also this killing of the chief terrorist in Iraq (these news always get a move in the market and overshadow anything else...)


now..question is untill when do we see all the strenght in $???

well the trade balance will be point 1 and if that is not bad then wait for the CPI...that is when the big move will happen...i read some negative forecasts(weaker number) so...in that case euro can take back all losses by next friday....
Whatever Trichet said, was probably not enought to make the market go long on euro today. The mood was in sell, since the last days, not only today because of Iraq for me. Indeed I was long on euro until this morning but decided to go out because the market mood looked too down for me to expect a big long move, unless a .50 hike would come out.
I think the euro could still go back to 1,2550, but then probabably can be a good moment to buy again.
ECB talks anyway never sound very positive to me. They lack of longterm clear intentions
  • #483
  • Jun 8, 2006 11:39am Jun 8, 2006 11:39am
Quoting bigballer
Why stay out? Man there are guys I know who got 160 pips today.
One guy I know made 10K

the smart money push the EUR, GBP way down

thanks
Hi BigBaller,

you are right man, but I was at work and unless my manager is not there I can't move too much. Tomorrow will be an other day with a lot of pips . I play lot the pound , so no problem for pips.
Today I made 40 pips on pound just on wawes. Maybe I was not in the mood of playing this afternoon. Pity
  • #484
  • Jun 8, 2006 11:46am Jun 8, 2006 11:46am
I don't see how killing a chief terrorist would help the dollar but isn't it funny that this positive story came out today. I think the unemployment claim has more to do with the bullish dollar. That was the main news I was looking for this morning after seeing a flat market over night. Any positive story like a dead terrorist helped I guess.
  • #485
  • Jun 8, 2006 11:53am Jun 8, 2006 11:53am
Quoting nitman
I don't see how killing a chief terrorist would help the dollar but isn't it funny that this positive story came out today. I think the unemployment claim has more to do with the bullish dollar. That was the main news I was looking for this morning after seeing a flat market over night. Any positive story like a dead terrorist helped I guess.
This move is caused by a plethora of factors...some say it's because the ECB didn't raise interest rates higher than the 25 basis points that was "Expected". I guess they expected more.

Obviously unemployment numbers are good...but in no way could it cause a slide of this magnitude in such a short period of time.

Don't disregard external factors like the iraq war. Killing the head terrorist does a few things:

1) mentally helps the US. from an american stand point, this good news shores up a little bit of confidence that just maybe iraq could start going a bit better. This doesn't mean that it will, but if it helps for just a day, it helps...know what I mean...it's a big psychological factor. the stock market initially reacted to it, but it looks like the bears were in firm control from the start...the USD dollar bears had been wrestling the bulls for a little while now...so their hold wasn't quite as strong.

2) If it comes 1 step closer to solving iraq, then it helps the price of oil, which in turn helps the economy a little bit.

just my opinion here.
  • #486
  • Jun 8, 2006 12:05pm Jun 8, 2006 12:05pm
Quoting mrmikal
This move is caused by a plethora of factors...some say it's because the ECB didn't raise interest rates higher than the 25 basis points that was "Expected". I guess they expected more.

Obviously unemployment numbers are good...but in no way could it cause a slide of this magnitude in such a short period of time.

Don't disregard external factors like the iraq war. Killing the head terrorist does a few things:

1) mentally helps the US. from an american stand point, this good news shores up a little bit of confidence that just maybe iraq could start going a bit better. This doesn't mean that it will, but if it helps for just a day, it helps...know what I mean...it's a big psychological factor. the stock market initially reacted to it, but it looks like the bears were in firm control from the start...the USD dollar bears had been wrestling the bulls for a little while now...so their hold wasn't quite as strong.

2) If it comes 1 step closer to solving iraq, then it helps the price of oil, which in turn helps the economy a little bit.

just my opinion here.


Maybe iraq was a contribution, but for me its a matter of mood.
When the market decides about a direction, every little good signal supporting the mood (like iraq) becomes a VERY BIG SIGNAL to support this mood, and when there is a BIG BAD SINGNAL, is only a small signal ..and is not even much considered.
I remember when there was DOLLAR SELL MOOD that when the US gdp came out and was very good gdp (1 months ago), nobody reacted like it should be,,and the dollar instead of becoming stronger at least in that moment became even more weak...and the market kept selling dollars..
Now I see it the same...mood is not necessary pro dollar, but for sure not very pro euro in this moment.
Mood will change...moods for me are speculation and temporary..then what really makes sense are real economicla data.
I dont see the euro going back much more, maybe 1,2550, 1,2500, then will see.
Just my opinion ofcourse
  • #487
  • Jun 8, 2006 2:21pm Jun 8, 2006 2:21pm
I'm glad you mentioned "mood"...you're absolutely right. When you can sense the mood, your trading will become a little more constructive. If you can feel the "waves" of the mood there is a lot of money to collect.

At this point, we can definitely feel that the mood following the Euro and GBP have been changing a little bit, although I do believe that the USD is looking more positive.
  • #488
  • Jun 8, 2006 3:10pm Jun 8, 2006 3:10pm
whatever the story i lost on this one, pure and simple...

the downtrend line now will be interesting to follow, but not yet for me...watch and wait methinks.
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  • #489
  • Jun 8, 2006 4:09pm Jun 8, 2006 4:09pm
i agree with the above, and by MOOD we ofcourse mean the people who really move the market..these big players who dont give another thought about whatever we all small investors think like indicators, data etc...

if they are in the MOOD to move the pair one direction,,,,oh trust me they will and we the sheep must follow if we wanna make some bucks...otherwise whoever has the opposite position can kiss their account goodbye.....
  • #490
  • Jun 9, 2006 12:42am Jun 9, 2006 12:42am
EurUsd sitting at 38.2% retracement of previous up-trend, after the past day's move. (move starting 13-14th of April)

Up or Down?

I'm ready for both.
If it starts heading up from here I'm expecting some resistance around 1.2680 and then maybe 1.2696-8 .

What happens at those points remains to be seen. Will it head back down and break the low? ...Or continue up?

Just bought at 1.2642 with a Stop/Reverse set at 1.2624.


*NOTE: I'm NOT a professional trader. If anyone reading this has ideas to follow me it's at your own risk.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #491
  • Jun 9, 2006 2:41am Jun 9, 2006 2:41am
Doesn't reaaaaally know what it wants to do. At London open it seems quietish so far.

...When's that bloody soccer start again?
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #492
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:05am Jun 9, 2006 4:05am
Doesnt look like it want to go up to me. But maybe traders are waiting for US trade balance news to make a move.
  • #493
  • Jun 9, 2006 4:09am Jun 9, 2006 4:09am
Quoting J.L.
I believe the current upward movement is completed .I was Long Euro since 1.2081.Exited at 1.2880.
I went short 50% of my account at 1.2950 with 1/100 leverage.
Current stop loss is at 1.2950.
Target is at 1.2550.Let's see how it turns out...
I don't know if you are still in or were you stopped out at 1.2950.
On the overall. the forecast is absolutely good. I believe we could see the 1.2550 touched maybe today.

Hats off ! !

Well done and please keep on posting. Will be watching for the NEXT BIG NEWS FROM YOU ! !

Highway
  • #494
  • Jun 9, 2006 5:25am Jun 9, 2006 5:25am
Quoting highway3000
I don't know if you are still in or were you stopped out at 1.2950.
On the overall. the forecast is absolutely good. I believe we could see the 1.2550 touched maybe today.

Hats off ! !

Well done and please keep on posting. Will be watching for the NEXT BIG NEWS FROM YOU ! !

Highway
the move in the dollar these days had nothing to do with the above statement that was dated a month ago...the dollar got lifted becasuse of Fed comments, terrorist chief that got shot and dovish statement of ECB.....market is moving everyday for different reasons and what we said last month cannot be predicted in yesterdays move except if someone predicted these actions..trend was still for the euro to go up....
  • #495
  • Jun 9, 2006 10:09am Jun 9, 2006 10:09am
Quoting highway3000
I don't know if you are still in or were you stopped out at 1.2950.
On the overall. the forecast is absolutely good. I believe we could see the 1.2550 touched maybe today.

Hats off ! !

Well done and please keep on posting. Will be watching for the NEXT BIG NEWS FROM YOU ! !

Highway
I think his ID has been banned from this place. I remember vaguely him posting with a different screen name somewhere after J.L. was banned from this place.
  • #496
  • Jun 9, 2006 2:32pm Jun 9, 2006 2:32pm
Follow the downtrend - my split up orders still missed by 7 pips...
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  • #497
  • Edited 6:17pm Jun 11, 2006 6:11pm | Edited 6:17pm
wholly gap batman. logged in and it had jumped down 30 points

everyone seems to be excited about the usd today!
  • #498
  • Jun 11, 2006 7:17pm Jun 11, 2006 7:17pm
Quoting witchazel
wholly gap batman. logged in and it had jumped down 30 points

everyone seems to be excited about the usd today!
Did it due to more follow through from fridays action. Remember, Asian markets trade before the London and New York markets trades, so if New York makes big moves, then the following day Asia usually follows through with their investors and orders from the action the day before

But I think we see lower.........

Short term maybe. Things have changed with Bernanche's statement and EUR Fed being hawkish also......

Hard to say this is short term reversal for the big players to get back in at lower levels..

I think we see 1.30 and above in the long run
"We are the superior beings, we obey no one!"
  • #499
  • Jun 12, 2006 3:56am Jun 12, 2006 3:56am
the downtrend could carry it down another 300 pips if the trend holds.
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  • #500
  • Jun 12, 2006 4:20am Jun 12, 2006 4:20am
Agreed. Short already.

Quoting Isotonic
the downtrend could carry it down another 300 pips if the trend holds.
-soso
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