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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #66,101
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:36pm Feb 25, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Me too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFxllgA32ug
Thanks PT the key word is 'return'. My shorts waiting a long time to hear that.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,102
  • Feb 25, 2013 3:36pm Feb 25, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Me too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFxllgA32ug
This is why I play MM instead of SL's...brokers can see my buy stops, sell stops and SL's...and I believe they target them.

I just closed out of shorts that were in the red for 5 months and turned green today.

LIKE PT SAID SO WELL

PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE
  • #66,103
  • Feb 25, 2013 6:47pm Feb 25, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
I would not make that assumption. Watch the resistance level and watch for a change in the Risk On and Risk Off factor.

When the Equity markets are positive it usually brings EUR USD up with it. Please be advised that the World awaits Election results today from Italy. Stay Focused and ASSUME NOTHING. Watch the Price Action and Supply and Demand on your charts.
Today was a perfect Text Book example of what I share here. Once the Dow headed down and we had RisK Off BIG Time then the MONEYFLOW was into the US Bonds and Gold as well.

This was a very interesting day with concern over the Italian election results and the USA Budget issues heading to March 1, 2013.

Stay Tuned.
  • #66,104
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:49pm Feb 25, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting msood
EURUSD neural s-range for week 25 Feb

1.3133 - 1.3222
...that was quick work - all done in a single day.

Someone messaged me asking if the range is trade'able/ valid for multiple runs during the projection period. The answer is no (once the range is bridged, the market dynamics that the range is based on have changed).
  • #66,105
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:55pm Feb 25, 2013 9:55pm
Here's a question to all FA experts; purely academic of course:

If one had infinite supply of money in every currency, and wanted to influence the rate of a specific currency pair, what would be the most effective (legal) way to do so with the aim of minimizing the spend (e.g. buy/ sell the currency, government bonds of the respective country/ region, etc.).

appreciate your feedback -
  • #66,106
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:02pm Feb 25, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting msood
Here's a question to all FA experts; purely academic of course:

If one had infinite supply of money in every currency, and wanted to influence the rate of a specific currency pair, what would be the most effective (legal) way to do so with the aim of minimizing the spend (e.g. buy/ sell the currency, government bonds of the respective country/ region, etc.).

appreciate your feedback -

1.Search for a broker with more than 1000:1 Leverage.
2.Do the opposite of FF members.
3.Take trades in Asian session.
4.Buy at the top and sell at low so that u'll get more demand for your supply.

Just kidding.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #66,107
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:41pm Feb 25, 2013 10:41pm

Strange political system In Italy (Just thinking about the possibility of Italy leaving Euro)





"The mechanics of Italy's political system may once again prove to be a recipe for instability. The country's two parliamentary chambers, the lower house and the senate, have equal rights when passing laws, but different electoral systems. The party or coalition that receives the most votes in the lower house gets a bonus number of seats to give it a working majority.
With a narrow lead in the polls, the centre-left coalition, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, currently looks set to capture the bonus, despite a close race with the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The senate uses the same bonus rule, but broken down on a regional basis. Bersani is weaker in the large northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto, which return a large number of senators, meaning that he could be forced into an alliance in the Senate with the outgoing technocrat prime minister, Mario Monti. But that depends on Monti achieving the 8% minimum vote needed to win Senate seats in the regions, something now in doubt given his declining appeal.
Even if Monti and Bersani can put their senators together to form a majority, Berlusconi and Grillo may steal enough votes to make their coalition too fragile to last, making more elections a distinct possibility."




source = http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013...-live-coverage

  • #66,108
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:09pm Feb 25, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting Goldflake
1.Search for a broker with more than 1000:1 Leverage.
2.Do the opposite of FF members.
3.Take trades in Asian session.
4.Buy at the top and sell at low so that u'll get more demand for your supply.

Just kidding.
good you mentioned the 'kidding' part, i almost took you seriously
  • #66,109
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:49pm Feb 25, 2013 11:49pm
great counter trend trades setting up in EUR USD....as well as a potential trend change at 1:30...and 1.28...ish... as most of you already know.

Long and short positions can change on a dime.....in today's case...many dimes.
  • #66,110
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:56pm Feb 25, 2013 11:56pm
EUR/USD

Daily / Weekly - Ascending TL Broken & Confirmed

Monthly - Bearish Engulfing Candle

I'm BEARISH on EUR/USD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_-_Daily_(2-25).png Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_-_Monthly_(2-25).png Size: 80 KB
  • #66,111
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:18am Feb 26, 2013 2:18am
Quoting 100PipsADay
EUR/USD

Daily / Weekly - Ascending TL Broken & Confirmed

Monthly - Bearish Engulfing Candle

I'm BEARISH on EUR/USD

You are bearish but would you SELL at these levels ?

There's a huge difference.
  • #66,112
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:19am Feb 26, 2013 2:19am
Quoting lumesh
You are bearish but would you SELL at these levels ?

There's a huge difference.
No, definitely not. If I was selling at these levels I would have mentioned Sell Order with TP and SL targets
  • #66,113
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:01am Feb 26, 2013 3:01am
GM,

I would... with price piercing the 1.3070 on the downside the re-test of 1.2900 is now certain for the EUR/USD.

Enjoy our swing shorts...

Quoting lumesh
You are bearish but would you SELL at these levels ?

There's a huge difference.
PS: Lum thanks for joining. I have delayed the work this week to follow the Italian Elections. Sorry for that.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #66,114
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:27am Feb 26, 2013 3:27am
Quoting 100PipsADay
No, definitely not. If I was selling at these levels I would have mentioned Sell Order with TP and SL targets
exactly,

so the right thing to say is that you are market neutral or BULLISH, cause you expect a retracement (BEFORE you become bearish).

Just trying to explain what market sentiment really is. One thing is to say what you think, the other one is how you act. Market price only cares about how you act.
  • #66,115
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:30am Feb 26, 2013 3:30am
Quoting fibstalker
GM,

I would... with price piercing the 1.3070 on the downside the re-test of 1.2900 is now certain for the EUR/USD.

Enjoy our swing shorts...
Now that's acting. Which makes the sentiment of the Fibstalker real.


Quoting fibstalker
PS: Lum thanks for joining. I have delayed the work this week to follow the Italian Elections. Sorry for that.
i had my application built, so you wouldn't recognize me....and yet, you did
  • #66,116
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:31am Feb 26, 2013 3:31am
Quoting fibstalker
GM,

I would... with price piercing the 1.3070 on the downside the re-test of 1.2900 is now certain for the EUR/USD.

Enjoy our swing shorts...



PS: Lum thanks for joining. I have delayed the work this week to follow the Italian Elections. Sorry for that.
hi fib

y does piercing 1.3070 set us a target of 1.29? what is the max high u see on our way to 1.29?

thx
  • #66,117
  • Feb 26, 2013 9:14am Feb 26, 2013 9:14am
Scalping EUR USD on latest US data...Bear...just got out of short position and will enter again soon...after the reaction..
  • #66,118
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:01pm Feb 26, 2013 10:01pm
Looming USA budget concerns could be a catalyst for a drop in the dollar...which could drive up EUR USD.

/DX is showing signs of consolidation, which is also seen nicely in the USD CAD...still no trend change...just some consolidation...

The Yen crosses...especially EUR JPY and USD JPY are perhaps leading indicators of a potential larger move.

The NZD USD and AUD USD crosses have good potential for counter trend moves...and possibly trend changes...although I would guess that the COT and Sell Orders are weighted heavily short on both...

Also, CNY reported on 2.24 Flash manufuacture PMI was negative...at 50.4...prior was 52.3...as you all know...anything below 50 is not good...and the lower figure indicates a slow down in China...

I've heard that these data reports are manipulated heavily by China and the USA...don't know anything about that...But I do know that China is sitting on a huge burden of vacant real estate that was created to fill a future economic boom...that didn't happen...Were talking something close to 70 million vacant buildings...A Google search on Ghost Cities China shows this...but I have a feeling that most of you already know this.

They can handle it because the government over there controls the huge surplus..and refuses to allow to float the Yuan....However..their proxy currency...the Remininbi is allowed to float and is used to bypass this...and create trade agreements that get around the need to convert to US dollar Reserve costs.

The BRICS nations are all trading this way, now...and last that I heard, there wre 19 countries involved.

So, we might eventually see the USA reserve currency status fall by the wayside...

At any rate, I'm intrested in long positions in EUR USD and AUD USD, or AUD NZD...they are both pretty much the same.....You have to look at AUD/NZD to determine whcih one you prefer....I also like the USD CAD short potential.

Also very intrested in EUR JPY short...but this will take awhile to develop..or not...

We'll see...I'm not married to any position...

Just like to trade....as well as share and express ideas...

I came upon this thread by chance...It's a good one...
  • #66,119
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:18pm Feb 26, 2013 10:18pm
You guys who are not members should join in....ask questions..express views..watching is ok...but participating is more fun.
  • #66,120
  • Feb 26, 2013 10:23pm Feb 26, 2013 10:23pm
Quoting Sailing Home
[size=1]Looming USA budget concerns could be a catalyst for a drop in the dollar...which could drive up EUR USD.

/DX is showing signs of consolidation, which is also seen nicely in the USD CAD...still no trend change...just some consolidation...

The Yen crosses...especially EUR JPY and USD JPY are perhaps leading indicators of a potential larger move.

The NZD USD and AUD USD crosses have good potential for counter trend moves...and possibly trend changes...although I would guess that the COT and Sell Orders are weighted heavily short on...


I would think that a "looming USA budget concern" would actually be dollar positive due to it's safe haven status. Therefore, people would sell EUR (and other majors) to find safety in the USD until it "blows" over.

USD will not lose reserve currency status for a LOOOOOONNGGGG time! What would replace it? I wouldn't buy into any type of hype that supports "the crash of the USD" as it just isn't realistic.

As for China, there numbers may (or may not) be manipulated but that doesn't matter as market prices in figures that are released to the public. Just like US unemployment figures, they are obviously much higher then the published 7% or so, but it doesn't matter because again, market prices in what is reported through data releases.
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