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Sonic R. System

  • #44,421
  • Feb 25, 2013 5:15pm Feb 25, 2013 5:15pm
Quoting traderathome
GJ: Overnight, pendining long #5, scout, order filled.
GJ: A bit ago, added long #6, Scout.
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  • #44,422
  • Feb 25, 2013 5:46pm Feb 25, 2013 5:46pm
Hy Sonicers,
today is 25th, so once again, here goes my prevision for EURUSD in the majors TF.
as usual, if you think this to be too extensive, please jump to the next post.
i think i don't need to say that these words are not meant to be followed, but if you do, good luck...
this is highly speculative. My specualtion, even i don't follow it

SonicR still rules!
Trade what you see, not what you think!

EU - Simple analisys

Monthly - in this TF, i don't have much to say that i haven't said last month. the drop has started (as predicted) and target remains 1.25xx.
of course, this will not happen straight, with the tipical market waves, but in general, the trend in this TF will be down. this month has cross, and i think will close bellow lower trend line, in the next days, maybe weeks this trendline will be tested, before it returns to the donwside again.

Weekly - the trend is down. target not reached yet but still 1.28xx. If analise this tf by itself, we don't see much signs of reversal. it has also crossed a lower trendline that might be tested before continue the down move, if it make a new low (lower than 1.28000), it might go to 1.26xx.

Daily- last month target reached! we are now on a support area. the dailly traders are or will collect the profits in this area. the demand for shorts will decrease. this will give strength to the bulls, so market might retrace a litle before it go short again. retrace target will be 1.33xx.

4 Hour- last month target reached! we are close to support area, volume is high without much move (stopping volume?). we have reached a area of profit taken for 4h tf traders. market might retrace. retrace target will be 1.33xx as well.

1 Hour - climax reached. profits will be taken. retrace is previewed. no supply bars. target is 1.319xx.

30 Min - climax reached. no supply bars spoted. no sonicr setup yet and dragon still facing down, next bars will flat the dragon and prepare to retrace to 1.319xx

15 Min - our field of action! no setup at this moment, but the dragon is starting slowly to turn flat. we are entering Asia session, usually a quite session, so the price might join the dragon to raill up tomorrow on LS.
price is ranging now, so wait for LS and look for L-H-HL to enter... oh... target will be 1.317xx

Have a nice trade journey!
FXBlog h**p://talaiatradingsystem(dot)blogspot(dot)pt
  • #44,423
  • Edited 6:26pm Feb 25, 2013 6:16pm | Edited 6:26pm
AU Comment:

Yesterday price bounced on SR and climbed, and fell, with US MMs taking it below, to the half number. Today started with the Asian session MMs also taking it down to the half number, with rising volume following as the price rose off the half number area. This says the MMs are bullish. Yesterday's climb was most likely building longs. Yesterday's subsequent drop was just the MMs lowering price, resetting price low, for another round of buying. The half number is the key. That the US and Asian session MMs both sought this level, from which the price is rising, is testimony that the MMs want as low priced longs as possible, and the half number has given it to them. The half number is a key, and a natural SR level. Since it is not broken, the MMs are bullish, and extremely bullish for taking the price down there, i.e., loading up cheap longs!

The event that the MMs are working towards might be the USD high impacts coming later today. Good USD news or bad, or anything in between, it looks like the MMs could use it as the catalyst to start a mark up phase. Yes, speculative.

When the London session opens there will be hours for those MMs to also grab for cheap longs. The price might revisit the half number area. If it does, this would confirm the MMs are bulls. If those MMs lower price, but cannot get it to the half number area, that would mean there are too many long orders blocking the path, which also says the market is bullish.

So, let us see what happens,
-tah
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  • #44,424
  • Feb 25, 2013 6:35pm Feb 25, 2013 6:35pm
EU: Entered long here on a PA wave w/o Dragon, and that I consider a pullback off the half number SR area is very likely. The SL is mental for now, and the TP is set, but tentative.
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  • #44,425
  • Feb 25, 2013 7:08pm Feb 25, 2013 7:08pm
UCad and USD Speculation:

Maybe it is just me, but I have the feeling the market is gearing up to play like it doesn't like USD when the next USD releases hit. And then there is this "Sequester" bullshit (March 1st, Friday) that the market might make a big "to-do" over, simply to play "Ping Pong Pricing for Profits!"

So, I am looking at UCad here on M15, and the MMs mad rush to get the price high with a lot of volume after the MMs got the price high. Kinda suspicious, don't you think? And look at H4! Isn't this sort of ripe for a pullback?

I'm going to watch and wait and see if some happy MM moves the price up again, and take a Scout short on this sucker!

-tah
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  • #44,426
  • Feb 26, 2013 12:41am Feb 26, 2013 12:41am
EG: Entered short on PA wave w/o Dragon. Earlier, MMs pushed price down thru whole number area, which previously was support. You can see that off to the left on the chart. Now, the price is being pushed back up to get additional short orders filled by triggering pending long orders and by hitting tight stops on shorts (my assessment). Price might go higher, but overall price action looks bearish. The key is if the price returns to below the whole number, or finds support again here above it. Time will tell.
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  • #44,427
  • Feb 26, 2013 12:50am Feb 26, 2013 12:50am
EJ is the dive move..

Recently, news out that Soro was the ones who buying up xx/JPY pair..it is such a stunt for the newbie to follow and load the longs..
The selling was so severe that it was almost down 600 pips..


my experience tell me that this kind of move only appear in 2 phase of the mkt... Starting of a new trend or ending of one..

Patience and sell shorts pandawans..

Sonic
  • #44,428
  • Edited 1:20am Feb 26, 2013 1:00am | Edited 1:20am
GU Comment:

The price has been driven below the whole number to the 3/4 SR area. The first push to the lowest prices got the highest activity, which most of the time means the MMs are grabbing for cheaper longs by triggering pending stops on longs and triggering pending short orders. This looks bullish, but price must be supported here for a continued bullish outlook.

Edit: At the completion of the first 15 minutes of FO trading here is what I see (2nd chart). The price went about as much below the 3/4 number as above it, which is good if the MMs were trying to get a nice 3/4 average on their grab for cheap longs. Certainly, this was high volume trading, yet without the price moving from the 3/4 area, so that pretty much cements the idea the MMs are building a position. And if they are building it at the bottom of a small drive down, it must be a long position, not a short one. The conclusion is that we now have current confirmation the MMs remain bullish, but the ink is not dry on this proclaimation until price starts rebounding up again.....
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  • #44,429
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:05am Feb 26, 2013 1:05am
Pardon me . i am abit confused. When do we apply scout when we ignored the dragon trend?
  • #44,430
  • Edited 8:18pm Feb 26, 2013 1:32am | Edited 8:18pm
Quoting traderathome
EU: Entered long here on a PA wave w/o Dragon, and that I consider a pullback off the half number SR area is very likely. The SL is mental for now, and the TP is set, but tentative.
EU: Added long #2, Scout. The FO MMs have driven the price to the 1/4 SR area and have been heavily trading it there. Dropping a price and then trading is a sure sign the MMs are building longs, not shorts. Price could go lower, however. The mental SL is lowered and remains mental. TP2 is added as a tentative target as the result of the push lower.
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  • #44,431
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:41am Feb 26, 2013 1:41am
Quoting traderathome
AU Comment:

Yesterday price bounced on SR and climbed, and fell, with US MMs taking it below, to the half number. Today started with the Asian session MMs also taking it down to the half number, with rising volume following as the price rose off the half number area. This says the MMs are bullish. Yesterday's climb was most likely building longs. Yesterday's subsequent drop was just the MMs lowering price, resetting price low, for another round of buying. The half number is the key. That the US and Asian session MMs both sought this level, from...
AU Comment:

The London session is still not open and we already have another grab below the half number for cheap longs, this time by the Frankfurt MMs. You can see on this M30 chart the high volume drive that hit the sweet spot below the half number. And you can see that in the first ten minutes of the current TF bar, the price has not since moved very much. It might, but this is a sign the MMs have hit the area they want to build longs in, ahead of the multiple USD high impact releases coming later.
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  • #44,432
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:21am Feb 26, 2013 2:21am
Quoting traderathome
GU Comment:

The price has been driven below the whole number to the 3/4 SR area. The first push to the lowest prices got the highest activity, which most of the time means the MMs are grabbing for cheaper longs by triggering pending stops on longs and triggering pending short orders. This looks bullish, but price must be supported here for a continued bullish outlook.

Edit: At the completion of the first 15 minutes of FO trading here is what I see (2nd chart). The price went about as much below the 3/4 number as above it, which is good if the...
GU Comment:

Sonicers, be careful if thinking of shorting. Looks like a "head fake" move down to grab longs, like the London MMs invested to leave the 3/4 area and hit the half number area. Again, you can see heavy volume on dive making the new lows, and then the next TF the price does not move much, as they go to work building. My take.
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  • #44,433
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:23am Feb 26, 2013 2:23am
Quoting veane
Pardon me . i am abit confused. When do we apply scout when we ignored the dragon trend?
Stick with the classic Sonic R. System. I am just "conditioning" myself to pay attention to price action and S&R,.....muscle building.
  • #44,434
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:29am Feb 26, 2013 2:29am
Quoting sonicdeejay
EJ is the dive move..

Recently, news out that Soro was the ones who buying up xx/JPY pair..it is such a stunt for the newbie to follow and load the longs..
The selling was so severe that it was almost down 600 pips..


my experience tell me that this kind of move only appear in 2 phase of the mkt... Starting of a new trend or ending of one..

Patience and sell shorts pandawans..

Sonic
Down trend just starting Master Deejay, I think its time to closing daily GAP and make new high

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  • #44,435
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:41am Feb 26, 2013 2:41am
Quoting SCopier
Down trend just starting Master Deejay, I think its time to closing daily GAP and make new high

Attachment

Attachment
EJ:

I don't understand what you are saying about the gap. It is already closed. And these pullbacks are not even to the FR 50% level. This price action is demonstrating how weak the bull is. I don't expect a grand move up the way this looks. But, we never can be sure, can we?
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  • #44,436
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:45am Feb 26, 2013 2:45am
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

I don't understand what you are saying about the gap. It is already closed. And these pullbacks are not even to the FR 50% level. This price action is demonstrating how weak the bull is. I don't expect a grand move up the way this looks. But, we never can be sure, can we?
GAP on daily TF, Tah
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  • #44,437
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:52am Feb 26, 2013 2:52am
Quoting traderathome
EG: Entered short on PA wave w/o Dragon. Earlier, MMs pushed price down thru whole number area, which previously was support. You can see that off to the left on the chart. Now, the price is being pushed back up to get additional short orders filled by triggering pending long orders and by hitting tight stops on shorts (my assessment). Price might go higher, but overall price action looks bearish. The key is if the price returns to below the whole number, or finds support again here above it. Time will tell.
EG: Added short trade #2, Scout. This is based on the price/volume picture, which is obvious. The price did return to below the whole number and the whole number acted as resistance when price next came back up to it. All that was fine and bearish, until the London MMs drove the price up above the whole number again to the 1/4 SR area, and then started heavily trading it. This can only mean that the MMs are building shorts. It doesn't mean that the price cannot be driven higher, though. The mental SL is raised, but the orginal TP1 remains the target for the trade.
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  • #44,438
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:57am Feb 26, 2013 2:57am
Quoting SCopier
GAP on daily TF, Tah
Gee, thanks for clearing that up. Shouldn't be a problem. At 600+ pips per day drop, we should be there tomorrow.
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  • #44,439
  • Edited 3:44am Feb 26, 2013 3:04am | Edited 3:44am
UCad:

Still waiting for some happy, accomodating MM to pump the price to the 1.026x area so I can short it. So far, no MMs seem interested in doing so. Either the market is covertly extremely bearish, too bearish to even consider a measley 10+ pips hike, or the MMs have suddenly gone chicken.

.....or, I just have to be patient.

Maybe waiting is not a bad idea. The MMs might hike the price on the USD releases, no matter what they contain, possibly creating a double top as a result of another Pump & Dump drive. Yeah, I think I will just back off this one for now.

-tah
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  • #44,440
  • Edited 6:06am Feb 26, 2013 5:29am | Edited 6:06am
All I can see is... swings for now..

ALl await what Bernanke gotta says..

Inserted Video


Sonic
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