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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,021
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:23pm Feb 25, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting xivh
You think so? 90? Just lost 30 pips on a couple of longs, but I think I will go long again at support, I think that when they officially change the BOJ chairman, I will be very confident with my new longs
Hi,

To be honest i'm not sure about the general long term trend cause I only do intraday trades, however there was clearly some support at the point just touched around 92.30, if you are a scalper and fast enough you could've gone long there for an easy 40-50 pips with about a 15-20 pip stop.

So your getting a good 3:1 ratio.

It all depends on what your trading strategy and time frame is, but in my opinion the daily outlook is unclear although I would wait 1 or 2 weeks for the weekly chart to pull back enough technically to go higher.

Good luck!
  • #33,022
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:26pm Feb 25, 2013 1:26pm
Sorry, was meant to add this picture, 4H chart.

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  • #33,023
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:29pm Feb 25, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting Onitay
Hi,

To be honest i'm not sure about the general long term trend cause I only do intraday trades, however there was clearly some support at the point just touched around 92.30, if you are a scalper and fast enough you could've gone long there for an easy 40-50 pips with about a 15-20 pip stop.

So your getting a good 3:1 ratio.

It all depends on what your trading strategy and time frame is, but in my opinion the daily outlook is unclear although I would wait 1 or 2 weeks for the weekly chart to pull back enough technically to go higher.

Good...
Yes that resistance was pretty clear, but I´m not a scalper, generally I tend to keep my trades for about a week my ratio is usually 3:1, 90 pip takeprofit and 30 stoploss, I generally look for news, support and resistance prices, I´m eager to trade USDJPY this week because all the candidates for BOJ chairman are JPY bears. I think that as long as they keep from announcing the new chairman we can see a bullish JPY, but once that announcement is done, I´m on the JPY bear side.
  • #33,024
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:32pm Feb 25, 2013 1:32pm
I do think that this has to do with the italian election, usually when the EUR is bearish JPY is bullish, and viceversa (at least since I started 2 years ago). Notice that there is also big resistance at the current price 92.80.
  • #33,025
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:34pm Feb 25, 2013 1:34pm
Quoting xivh
Yes that resistance was pretty clear, but I´m not a scalper, generally I tend to keep my trades for about a week my ratio is usually 3:1, 90 pip takeprofit and 30 stoploss, I generally look for news, support and resistance prices, I´m eager to trade USDJPY this week because all the candidates for BOJ chairman are JPY bears. I think that as long as they keep from announcing the new chairman we can see a bullish JPY, but once that announcement is done, I´m on the JPY bear side.
My big mistake today was thinking that I could go long once it closed the gap.
  • #33,026
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:40pm Feb 25, 2013 1:40pm
I'm sure you will be fine, you have a much better understanding and grip then me of The market fundamentals that suit your trading style
  • #33,027
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:48pm Feb 25, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting Onitay
I'm sure you will be fine, you have a much better understanding and grip then me of The market fundamentals that suit your trading style

Every trader has his own style, if scalping suits you then you should be fine too, I´became a fundamental because I´ve had my behind kicked many times by fundamental events.
  • #33,028
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:40pm Feb 26, 2013 2:40pm
now that the bearded one has given a thumbs up to trashing the yen, .uj should rise.

looks like it's about ready to blast off from launch pad #92 !
  • #33,029
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:09pm Feb 26, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting 1candlepower
now that the bearded one has given a thumbs up to trashing the yen, .uj should rise.

looks like it's about ready to blast off from launch pad #92 !


okay mr .uj, you started turning down a few minutes after my last post. all i have to say is this: i don't believe it for one second!
  • #33,030
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:11pm Feb 26, 2013 3:11pm
Been adding longs on UJ ,avg price of 91.22, Targeting 98 and then 100... This is purely based on monthly charts, don't care about the noise in between. Dollar should be 120 against the pos yen...
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  • #33,031
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:43pm Feb 26, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Been adding longs on UJ ,avg price of 91.22, Targeting 98 and then 100... This is purely based on monthly charts, don't care about the noise in between. Dollar should be 120 against the pos yen...


interesting comment on trend reversal. add my news comment about the bearded one and we have eqn:

...... Following the trend + Following the news = $$$
  • #33,032
  • Feb 26, 2013 3:51pm Feb 26, 2013 3:51pm
I listened to his whole statement, he said some really good things about the dollar. Down move was caused by the eurzone yen pairs taking this down with it. I just don't see a reversal in this strong uptrend on the monthly... maybe around 95-98 area will provide a struggle, but the 91 handle has been great support.
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  • #33,033
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:21pm Feb 26, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I listened to his whole statement, he said some really good things about the dollar. ........ I just don't see a reversal in this strong uptrend on the monthly... maybe around 95-98 area will provide a struggle, but the 91 handle has been great support.

the bearded one also gave his stamp of approval to a weak yen: "I support their [Japan's] attempts to get rid of deflation". a weak yen historically has been more powerful rocket fuel for the .uj than a strong dollar.

technically, i don't see the reversal from early sept being undone either. there will be dips and it might even reach Gartmann's target of 150. in fact, if you think about it a little, that steady up move from sept. could be just wave 1 of a very, very large impulse and we are experiencing the wave 2 corrective movement now. that makes wave 1 out to be 17 big figs! pall-parking an outcome based on roughly equal wave 1, 3 and 5 with constant rate of rise puts us around .uj = 128 by end of 2013...
  • #33,034
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:29pm Feb 26, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting 1candlepower
the bearded one also gave his stamp of approval to a weak yen: "I support their [Japan's] attempts to get rid of deflation". a weak yen historically has been more powerful rocket fuel for the .uj than a strong dollar.

technically, i don't see the reversal from early sept being undone either. there will be dips and it might even reach Gartmann's target of 150. in fact, if you think about it a little, that steady up move from sept. could be just wave 1 of a very, very large impulse and we are experiencing the wave 2 corrective movement now....

uh! how did i miss it??? "strong dollar", "weak yen/deflation fighting okay " ...

the bearded one is long .uj !!! (or his friends and family members)

i'd be supporting Japan's attempts to get rid of deflation too!
  • #33,035
  • Feb 26, 2013 4:46pm Feb 26, 2013 4:46pm
Yep! He did talk down the yen quite a bit. Patience will pay off
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  • #33,036
  • Feb 26, 2013 5:50pm Feb 26, 2013 5:50pm
Will it break ?
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  • #33,037
  • Feb 26, 2013 5:54pm Feb 26, 2013 5:54pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Been adding longs on UJ ,avg price of 91.22, Targeting 98 and then 100... This is purely based on monthly charts, don't care about the noise in between. Dollar should be 120 against the pos yen...

Stops moved up to about 50 below entry, will be looking to move to BE with a 1 or 200 pip move.
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  • #33,038
  • Feb 27, 2013 10:56am Feb 27, 2013 10:56am
Quoting BobGnarly
Stops moved up to about 50 below entry, will be looking to move to BE with a 1 or 200 pip move.
Added a bunch this morning 95 next week? Or tom when GDP passes expectations ?
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  • #33,039
  • Edited 12:44pm Feb 27, 2013 12:31pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I listened to his whole statement, he said some really good things about the dollar. Down move was caused by the eurzone yen pairs taking this down with it. I just don't see a reversal in this strong uptrend on the monthly... maybe around 95-98 area will provide a struggle, but the 91 handle has been great support.
I am not sure why you would wait for the monthly chart to show you a correction?

It works from the bottom to the top on this.

The weekly is now close to showing a total reversal.
We might see EURJPY go all the way back to 107.

We have textbook descending triangles formed on every JPY pair and you're buying?

By Friday March 1st that floor is going to crack and we're headed down... down... down...

IMO
Trade at your own risk.
  • #33,040
  • Feb 27, 2013 1:47pm Feb 27, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Added a bunch this morning 95 next week? Or tom when GDP passes expectations ?
Buy when everyones selling in a massive uptrend
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