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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,001
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:07am Feb 21, 2013 10:07am
hmmm... > everyone's pretty much forgotten about Phily Fed by now;
> the dollar continues to strengthen across the board;
> 10 yr rates continue to hold up; and,
> the IMF says a weak yen is not really a big deal.

... and yet, .uj continues to tumble. you don't think someone's playing a here maybe?
  • #33,002
  • Feb 21, 2013 11:25am Feb 21, 2013 11:25am
Quoting 1candlepower
hmmm... > everyone's pretty much forgotten about Phily Fed by now;
> the dollar continues to strengthen across the board;
> 10 yr rates continue to hold up; and,
> the IMF says a weak yen is not really a big deal.

... and yet, .uj continues to tumble. you don't think someone's playing a here maybe?


boy, that WAS a good trick.

last time the G-guys said "you misinterpreted us!" .uj went ballastic ... not so much this time .

it just keeps falling
  • #33,003
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm Feb 21, 2013 12:15pm
Hello,
this is a comparison I made between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Let me know what you think.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1361469514

There is a major difference on the daily chart which can be spot analyzing the two charts compared above. Price action of both charts is the same but; while the Euro failed the next move higher, showing a Euro that is going to weaken faster than the Japanese yen in the coming days,that did not happen to the USD/JPY. So that means that bulls are not interested too buy the EUR/JPY pair at this stage (see below), while they could still be involved in long positions in the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair (see picture above) did not fail the current long extension setup. Above the 91.60 level longs are still valid with a 1st target at the 94.90 area (scenario 1). The scenario 2. for the USD/JPY would develop if price falls below the 91.60 level. In that case we could see a move into the next level of support down at the 89.40 area.

As anticipated, the main difference between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is that the latter failed the extension long. That happened the very moment price moved below the 123.30 level on Friday last week.The price is now in scenario 1, moving in traditional shorts with resistance between 125.30-125.80. First target is down at 121.80. Scenario 2 would kick if price would not bbounce off the next support level at 119.60 which lines up to the 2nd target in the 119.90 area. In that case, we could see a continued move lower.

The level of support on the EUR/JPY pair will be identified when the EUR/USD pair will also find support. I anticipate this support will come at 1.2900. Both USD/JOY and EUR/JPY could find their support when that happens.

More in my mid-week update.
Let me know what you think.
Thank you
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #33,004
  • Feb 21, 2013 12:32pm Feb 21, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting Aristotrader
My pending order was filled and the trade hit the profit level shown on the chart. I'm looking to enter long again with a similar set-up when the price decreases to ~93.60.

Note: The particular entry isn't as important as the general set-up. I have have identified favourable trends on the higher time-frames, strong price-levels of support to place my rescue trades above and stop-losses behind, and therefore know that the eventuality of a losing trade is rare enough to allow overall profits.
Between now and my last post, we've seen a retracement against the main trend. I've entered long positions at 93.60 and 92.95 in antisipation of a resumption of the upward trend. I will continue to be bullish until 91.80 is reached. My trade plan allows me a further buy order two times larger than a single one of my other entries at the strong support provided at 92.38. As I've said, if the price reaches 91.80 and any of these trades have not been closed, I will take the loss.
  • #33,005
  • Feb 21, 2013 2:24pm Feb 21, 2013 2:24pm
Annoying pile of crap came within the spread of triggering my entry before turning around. I hope I get another opportunity before it heads for supply...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 59 KB
  • #33,006
  • Feb 22, 2013 8:50am Feb 22, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Aristotrader
Between now and my last post, we've seen a retracement against the main trend. I've entered long positions at 93.60 and 92.95 in antisipation of a resumption of the upward trend. I will continue to be bullish until 91.80 is reached. My trade plan allows me a further buy order two times larger than a single one of my other entries at the strong support provided at 92.38. As I've said, if the price reaches 91.80 and any of these trades have not been closed, I will take the loss.
Trades are currently plus 47 pips and minus 25 pips. The set-up and outlook is unchanged.
  • #33,007
  • Feb 23, 2013 6:15am Feb 23, 2013 6:15am
One more plan for next week.. i hope this will be a good change to look for long position...USDJPY H4 Seem a good support at 92.100 better prepare for next good thing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-h4-23-02-2013.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #33,008
  • Feb 23, 2013 9:24am Feb 23, 2013 9:24am
Quoting iyas120
One more plan for next week.. i hope this will be a good change to look for long position...USDJPY H4 Seem a good support at 92.100 better prepare for next good thing
could be wrong, but breaking it would imo be a good chance for shorts towards 88-89 area.
A healthy correction is what bulls need to progress further imo, already anticipating the move atm
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #33,009
  • Feb 23, 2013 10:04am Feb 23, 2013 10:04am
Quoting USD-Bear
could be wrong, but breaking it would imo be a good chance for shorts towards 88-89 area.
A healthy correction is what bulls need to progress further imo, already anticipating the move atm

I am waiting for the correction.
  • #33,010
  • Feb 24, 2013 8:26am Feb 24, 2013 8:26am
96 this week ???

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...457219728.html

Read very carefully guys ...
  • #33,011
  • Feb 24, 2013 11:18am Feb 24, 2013 11:18am
Quoting serdarsil
96 this week ???

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...457219728.html

Read very carefully guys ...
I wouldn't put any stock in the news if I were you, especially rumors from the Wall Street Journal.
  • #33,012
  • Feb 24, 2013 12:04pm Feb 24, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting Kanzler
I wouldn't put any stock in the news if I were you, especially rumors from the Wall Street Journal.

Normallu I do not but ...

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/

We are @ 93.90 ... 50 pips up ...
  • #33,013
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:20pm Feb 24, 2013 1:20pm
It looks like we are going to open with a small pullback and then we should see a continuation of this bullish move. I think that we should break 94 before tomorrow.
  • #33,014
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:26pm Feb 24, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting 4Xcalibur23
It looks like we are going to open with a small pullback and then we should see a continuation of this bullish move. I think that we should break 94 before tomorrow.
7


gap is about 100 pips from friaday close


http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart...ese%20Yen.html
  • #33,015
  • Feb 24, 2013 1:29pm Feb 24, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting Foxikus
7


gap is about 100 pips from friaday close


http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart...ese%20Yen.html

yep ... @94.40 now ...
  • #33,016
  • Feb 24, 2013 4:16pm Feb 24, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting Aristotrader
Between now and my last post, we've seen a retracement against the main trend. I've entered long positions at 93.60 and 92.95 in antisipation of a resumption of the upward trend. I will continue to be bullish until 91.80 is reached. My trade plan allows me a further buy order two times larger than a single one of my other entries at the strong support provided at 92.38. As I've said, if the price reaches 91.80 and any of these trades have not been closed, I will take the loss.

I've closed both of the above positions for profits of 60 pips and 125 pips. I'll be looking for a re-entry on a retracement, although possibly not for several hours.
  • #33,017
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:26am Feb 25, 2013 9:26am
I believe there is a gap to be closed ...
  • #33,018
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:06pm Feb 25, 2013 1:06pm
JPY affected by Italian elections?!!!!
  • #33,019
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:10pm Feb 25, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting xivh
JPY affected by Italian elections?!!!!
I think more the fact that from a weekly perspective it was always due for a fairly substantial retracement. The high open was definitely a big scare to some, signifying perhaps a break from the range the past 2 weeks.

If you connect a 4H chart, the bottom support is around 92.35

I think we will still be rangebound but possibly go towards the 90 mark however definitely not bullish.

That said a lot of action happening in quite an unusual time.
  • #33,020
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:17pm Feb 25, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Onitay
I think more the fact that from a weekly perspective it was always due for a fairly substantial retracement. The high open was definitely a big scare to some, signifying perhaps a break from the range the past 2 weeks.

If you connect a 4H chart, the bottom support is around 92.35

I think we will still be rangebound but possibly go towards the 90 mark however definitely not bullish.

That said a lot of action happening in quite an unusual time.
You think so? 90? Just lost 30 pips on a couple of longs, but I think I will go long again at support, I think that when they officially change the BOJ chairman, I will be very confident with my new longs
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