Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,981
- Feb 20, 2013 12:07pm Feb 20, 2013 12:07pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
- #65,982
- Feb 20, 2013 12:13pm Feb 20, 2013 12:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
- #65,983
- Feb 20, 2013 1:18pm Feb 20, 2013 1:18pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
The USDX reached that 80.70-80 area of 1st target and we are seeing some profit taking.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post6446631
Next stop is 81.30. The FOMC announcement could generate a reaction that goes in the direction of the confirmed short in the Euro, so continued move higher for USDX.
Any thoughts?
Next target is 81.5 (range top resistance)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,985
- Feb 20, 2013 3:50pm Feb 20, 2013 3:50pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Simple chart is the best... | 2,015 Posts
No need to take just one small position. Take several spread out over your reversal (supply/demand) zone. If only one small position is triggered before it reverses, scale in with more on each pullback along the measured move.
If you are targeting 400 pips profit, then a 100 to 200 pip SL is fine. Remember it is about risk/reward ratios and anything over 1:2 (1 risk / 2 reward) is a good thing. Of course I prefer the 1:5 trades
Remember when I told you I feel very comfortable on 1M and 5M timeframes?
Here is the problem, I am looking for precise entry on 5M chart, and exit on .... 4H
Using high leverage, a correction of 100-200 pips is very painfull.
Since Monday I was builiding my LONG trade (using both SHORT and LONG) so this morning I started with nice position with mutual (average) breakeven on 1.33300
So... if my target was hit, I'd be about 30% of my account in profit. As you know I wrapped up that trade close to breakeven.
After today's drop I can say only one: THANK YOU LORD FOR STOP LOSS ;-)
Tomorrow's another day...
Read Charts - Not Papers
- #65,986
- Feb 20, 2013 3:54pm Feb 20, 2013 3:54pm
That's exactly what I do... so called "building position"
Remember when I told you I feel very comfortable on 1M and 5M timeframes?
Here is the problem, I am looking for precise entry on 5M chart, and exit on .... 4H
Using high leverage, a correction of 100-200 pips is very painfull.
Since Monday I was builiding my LONG trade (using both SHORT and LONG) so this morning I started with nice position with mutual (average) breakeven on 1.33300
So... if my target was hit, I'd be about 30% of my account in profit. As you know I wrapped up...
- #65,987
- Feb 20, 2013 4:00pm Feb 20, 2013 4:00pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Simple chart is the best... | 2,015 Posts
Read Charts - Not Papers
- #65,988
- Feb 20, 2013 4:02pm Feb 20, 2013 4:02pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Simple chart is the best... | 2,015 Posts
Read Charts - Not Papers
- #65,989
- Feb 20, 2013 4:23pm Feb 20, 2013 4:23pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hey fib....
Hope you're doing well...
I have a question.
Yesterday you were more likely bullish, ok, and this afternoon you changed your sentiment to bearish...
My question is:
WHEN DID YOU CHANGE YOUR MIND AND WHY?
Myself, I started to hestitate after price couldn't bounce first off 50% and then 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, which in combination with S/R that it was sitting on should work fine. It didn't.
The bounce was very weak and price returned quickly... all moving averages turned south, only bearish candles on all timeframes.
Then...
Okay seriously. Lately I have only been scalping intraday with 20 to 50 pip targets. In the last two weeks I have gone from bearish to bullish and back more times than I can remember. However, in the bigger picture I am still a bear.
Looking at the next few weeks, up until the last ECB press conference, I was quite bullish and expecting to see 1.3850, but Draghi's dovish tone and the resulting market sentiment changed me to bearish for a nice correction towards and possibly below 1.30. Once that target is reached, I see a new vigor for a retest of 1.3525 and possibly try to approach 1.37 again, but it will fail and we will head down again.
From a short term fundamental perspective, until the Italian elections are out of the way, there's nowhere to go but down. On top of that, if the Fed continues to waver on whether or not QE Infinity will continue beyond the end of 2013, the USD will be set to come back with a vengeance and we should see E/U grind down all the way back to sub 1.25xx... if not lower.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,990
- Feb 20, 2013 4:37pm Feb 20, 2013 4:37pm
I've been bearish since May 2011
Okay seriously. Lately I have only been scalping intraday with 20 to 50 pip targets. In the last two weeks I have gone from bearish to bullish and back more times than I can remember. However, in the bigger picture I am still a bear.
Looking at the next few weeks, up until the last ECB press conference, I was quite bullish and expecting to see 1.3850, but Draghi's dovish tone and the resulting market sentiment changed me to bearish for a nice correction towards and possibly below 1.30. Once that target...
so just so i make sure i understand you, you see 1.30 ish then 1.35 ish then sub 1.25 ish ?
apologies, its getting late and i'm afraid i'm mentally fried
- #65,993
- Feb 21, 2013 12:11am Feb 21, 2013 12:11am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
i hear you on the bull/bear perspective change. just when i think i got it, it changes and so does my whole outlook.
so just so i make sure i understand you, you see 1.30 ish then 1.35 ish then sub 1.25 ish ?
apologies, its getting late and i'm afraid i'm mentally fried
When your brain is no longer fried, read the post again coz my calls were all conditional on CB actions
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,994
- Feb 21, 2013 2:30am Feb 21, 2013 2:30am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #65,995
- Feb 21, 2013 2:40am Feb 21, 2013 2:40am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,996
- Feb 21, 2013 2:48am Feb 21, 2013 2:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,997
- Feb 21, 2013 2:55am Feb 21, 2013 2:55am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
It might be good for a counter trade buy, but until the Italian elections are decided, I would be very very careful. There are many more opportunities out there to trade.
Sell all rallies in E/U, G/U and A/U and buy the dips on U/CAD
- #65,998
- Feb 21, 2013 3:08am Feb 21, 2013 3:08am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
hehe, yeah, but the USDX is not representative at this point cause in recent weeks/months we have dealt with a euro strength in the marketplace not dollar weakness.
The last time the USDX was at that price the euro was at 1.27
PS. Crap, i wanted to quote PT's post (USDX chart) not rekon's...my bad
- #66,000
- Feb 21, 2013 4:47am Feb 21, 2013 4:47am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs