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As Easy as "PI"

  • #441
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:22am Feb 19, 2013 8:22am
Quoting spyderman
50% DD on the floating equity, yes. Not fun. Of course if there hadn't been such a huge run up in the equity, you wouldn't see the DD.
As far as aggressive MM, that's for each one to decide based on their risk tolerance. Personally I don't view risking 1-3% of account equity with a trailing stop overly aggressive. Nor is trailing the stop by a couple of ADR. Especially for a smaller account size. If I was dealing with tens of thousands of dollars then I would personally want to drop the risk down.

dude...I wish I had your attitude.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #442
  • Feb 19, 2013 8:38am Feb 19, 2013 8:38am
Quoting pemully
dude...I wish I had your attitude.
Greed and fear man. Take your pick.
  • #443
  • Feb 19, 2013 9:12am Feb 19, 2013 9:12am
It seems to me a question and calculation of RMM to increase and adapt the lotsize.
It would depend on realized profit in the account, taken into account actually a DD of appr. 30-50% in the equity at the maximum, also regarding the performance of every pair in the basket and the entire account.
What do think about to reduce the distance of placing and stacking multiple orders in the appropriate pairs, which run in the mainstream?
From my point of view, you would have intraday more flexibility with stacked multiple orders to act.
Anyway with increased lotsize, you would be in the position to realize partial profit, but the disadvantage will be the leverage and risk after entry.

Trade well my friend

Over60
Enter Signature
  • #444
  • Feb 20, 2013 12:43pm Feb 20, 2013 12:43pm
All my CadJpy positions hit their trailing stop today to close. Other JPY crosses are closing the gap between price and the trailing MA. We'll see if they exit or head back up.
  • #445
  • Feb 20, 2013 6:07pm Feb 20, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting spyderman
Msia,

As you've been keeping up with the thread, I'm sure you've seen the huge swings in equity (unrealized profit) that have gone on with this system. That's the problem.

Most people couldn't or wouldn't want to handle an account that goes from 3,000 equity...up to 30,000 equity...then down to 6,000...up to 16,000...all in the space of a couple of months.

We've discussed closing our trades "exiting" before we they have a chance to retrace and loose equity. But no matter where you decide to exit, you're going to give pips back to the...
I try to understand... so many posts that I read after your above reply are "so advance" to me!

I might be a slow learner in understanding trading.

Thanks for taking time to reply.
  • #446
  • Feb 20, 2013 9:38pm Feb 20, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting spyderman
All my CadJpy positions hit their trailing stop today to close. Other JPY crosses are closing the gap between price and the trailing MA. We'll see if they exit or head back up.
Why all C/J pairs as far as opened in Nov 2012 were closed, but you have left other J pairs open (many are further than Nov 2012)?

I have thought C/J could be a good 'signal' (hit below MA22) to close up all J pairs. Otherwise, even for just a day, it will cost you thousand pips due to many opening J pairs (if prices go down).

May be I lack of understanding the trailing concept to understand your exit method.

Pls. share your thought.

Thanks.

p. s. But I do see your GBP pairs are producing profit
  • #447
  • Feb 20, 2013 11:02pm Feb 20, 2013 11:02pm
I have been busy following another method but pop in here to see the pip total; system should be short GBP-JPY due to the cross-over, right?
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #448
  • Feb 21, 2013 5:15am Feb 21, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Erebus
I have been busy following another method but pop in here to see the pip total; system should be short GBP-JPY due to the cross-over, right?
That would be correct, however, many including myself are waiting for the first pullback signal after the cross as a type of confirmation. I will especially do that on these Yen crosses. Global market sentiment just is not leaning to buying the Yen.

AudJpy and EurJpy have closed as well.
  • #449
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:42am Feb 21, 2013 9:42am
Hi, Spyderman:

what lesson could we draw from this DD? I see these loss are not from yesterday price movements (they are in fact good to profit from). too many losing positions accumulated seemed the main reason?

Quoting spyderman
That would be correct, however, many including myself are waiting for the first pullback signal after the cross as a type of confirmation. I will especially do that on these Yen crosses. Global market sentiment just is not leaning to buying the Yen.

AudJpy and EurJpy have closed as well.
  • #450
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:47am Feb 21, 2013 9:47am
Quoting charvo
Hi, Spyderman:

what lesson could we draw from this DD? I see these loss are not from yesterday price movements (they are in fact good to profit from). too many losing positions accumulated seemed the main reason?
Charvo,

Which DD are you referring to. The DD in floating equity from the highwater mark to present?
  • #451
  • Feb 21, 2013 9:54am Feb 21, 2013 9:54am
yeah, this month drop 78%; i didn't follow your explorer all the way very closely, but it felt like a cut of a bunch of losing positions.

btw, if it is due to agressive MM (increasing lotsize with margin growth), we might try to "square root" of the growth factor.

for example, if the margin grows twice as original, don't raise the lotsize by 2, but by SQRT(2) = 1.414. just an idea, you may improvise yourself. this way might limit the risk of DD.

Quoting spyderman
Charvo,

Which DD are you referring to. The DD in floating equity from the highwater mark to present?
  • #452
  • Feb 21, 2013 10:04am Feb 21, 2013 10:04am
Your Stop (Gaps) seems to me in the meantime partially adapted/optimized? Well done!
Do you use strictly MA22 trailing-stop for all open positions or only for new entries?
Anyway, I watched, that there are still some former orders > 200-300 pips in unrealized profit, which are not already protected by BE?
E.g. GPB/USD did not already protected by Stop(Gap) at > BE?

Trade well my friend
Over60
Enter Signature
  • #453
  • Feb 21, 2013 1:23pm Feb 21, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting Over60
Your Stop (Gaps) seems to me in the meantime partially adapted/optimized? Well done!
Do you use strictly MA22 trailing-stop for all open positions or only for new entries?
Anyway, I watched, that there are still some former orders > 200-300 pips in unrealized profit, which are not already protected by BE?
E.g. GPB/USD did not already protected by Stop(Gap) at > BE?

Trade well my friend
Over60
Yes, I think going forward I'll be better off with the position sizing. That was much of the problem with the DD of equity. Of course if I hadn't had those large positions at the top, there wouldn't have been a large floating equity to draw down.

I'm setting the MA trailing from the get go. I also place a 2x ADR s/l at the beginning. No BE.
  • #454
  • Feb 21, 2013 1:25pm Feb 21, 2013 1:25pm
NzdJpy closed out on the trailing 22MA. Only JPY cross still open is the UsdJpy. I would not be suprised to see the Jpy's head back up as they're all still above the zero line (except GBP). But, we'll see.
  • #455
  • Feb 22, 2013 3:09am Feb 22, 2013 3:09am
In one of Mark Douglas's seminars he says to maintain a smooth equity curve its best to scale out and trail stops as you do so. Says he tried to scale in but that lead to huge ups and downs in his equity but when he analyzed his trades he found very few actually went immediately against him so what he did was scale out at pre-detemined targets & trail stops. Very few losers this way and a smooth equity curve in fact he advocates this.

Just thought I'd pass on the info but problem with this approach is its not really ideal for trend following because the longer the trend persists the smaller your position size because of scaling out.
  • #456
  • Feb 24, 2013 2:39pm Feb 24, 2013 2:39pm
Big gap up on Jpy pairs today. Looks like Abe's choice for BOJ President may well spur the Yen to further lows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...yodo-says.html
  • #457
  • Feb 27, 2013 1:18am Feb 27, 2013 1:18am
Oh dear fellas, dead thread? I don't wish to gloat but when a man with 40 years of experience tries to help you it's probably better to listen to him rather than attacking him. Confucius didn't say it in quite those words but it sounds like good wisdom, or maybe just common sense, to me.

After my last posts there were a lot of people asking me to give advice about trading. Well, I'm too old and tired to be bothered posting much on a forum where experience is not respected. Too many youngsters without a clue throwing their weight around. I will make a few general comments here though.


The basic system in this thread will not work as it is because it is simply an always in ma cross system. Test it yourself.


I accept that the thread starter was not following his own rules strictly anyway so the above point doesn't matter so much but it's worth mentioning.


What happened was that you were lucky in catching a few good runs, particularly on yen pairs. This is because the yen was weak against all other currencies.


The entry method itself is not too bad because you are trading when there is momentum in one direction. Better still though is to use two or even three ma's (50 sma and 100 sma works well) to identify which pairs are trending well, wait for a pullback to a fib level, strong s/r level and/or trend line and then trade at the sign of a hold.


Use a stop based on ATR and trail behind the last 3 closed candles. Don't sit through pullbacks because half the time they become reversals. It's tempting to want to try and hit a home run with every trade but you will find it easier to just capture the momentum thrusts of each leg of a strong trend.


To that end it is acceptable to take your profit when the momentum slows down. This usually means a reversal is coming so don't feel you have to wait until your stop is hit, bank profits while they are there if the momentum move you are trading loses momentum. There is a clue in the wording, it's all about momentum.


Anyway, good luck all, I hope the above is useful.
  • #458
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:19am Feb 27, 2013 4:19am
Well done, Spidy
I am a trend trader and have followed this thread with interest. This thread has allowed other traders to see the value of this style of trading, Spidy has always been happy for feedback on this thread. I congratulate him for attaching his account and being transparent. The big question was always how do you exit, i use atr trailing stop, but it is upto each individual trader to work that out according to their risk profile.

Spidy, keep up the good work.

nt
  • #459
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:43am Feb 27, 2013 4:43am
Quoting Dodgy Salmon
Oh dear fellas, dead thread? I don't wish to gloat but when a man with 40 years of experience tries to help you it's probably better to listen to him rather than attacking him. Confucius didn't say it in quite those words but it sounds like good wisdom, or maybe just common sense, to me.

After my last posts there were a lot of people asking me to give advice about trading. Well, I'm too old and tired to be bothered posting much on a forum where experience is not respected. Too many youngsters without a clue throwing their weight around. I will...
Why not set up a trade explorer should be pretty easy for you with your 40 years of experience ...

No?
  • #460
  • Feb 27, 2013 5:04am Feb 27, 2013 5:04am
Quoting nitetrader
Well done, Spidy
I am a trend trader and have followed this thread with interest. This thread has allowed other traders to see the value of this style of trading, Spidy has always been happy for feedback on this thread. I congratulate him for attaching his account and being transparent. The big question was always how do you exit, i use atr trailing stop, but it is upto each individual trader to work that out according to their risk profile.

Spidy, keep up the good work.

nt
Just wanted to say thanks, Spidy. Following this thread has been of real value for me. AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
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