S&R short term bounces

11pm pst euro news obviously invalidated the euro setups.

Findus, I would keep going along until you hit get 40-50 trades under your belt (reasonable sample size albeit small). Then take your records, go back and see where a smaller SL would have helped you or hurt you, where a larger TP would have helped you or hurt you and adjust as needed.

Nice work on the GU. Slow night for me, hopefully tomorrow will pick up a bit.

I was waiting for the same trade. good that I was not at my trading platform, cos I guess I would have taken that one...would have been a loss. the news were orange (not red). hmm...

nothing is moving today, I had only one trade.

Sam, that is a good idea, I think I´m gonna do it that way...trade this until I can make a real judgement about it. I think if I had not done those mistakes in some trades, would probably be positive....but that belongs to trading as well. will see how it works over time.

Yeah, are you placing limit orders? Or entering with market orders?

And correct, it was not red news...but since coming down to these smaller timeframes, I have red & orange selected and just keep an eye on them along with how price is moving. Unless it's a super strong level that I want to be in, I generally try to stay away when price is just dumping (I enter with market orders only).

Sounds good re: judgement. I should stress that only 40-50 trades is still a really small sample size. I think a big issue when it comes to profitability is traders changing trading plans often. Make sure if you're altering your plan, you have substantial data explaining why it should be changed. Not because Sam0182 or anyone else is questioning your plan/why/giving you free "tips"/etc

This style of entry is pretty similiar to what i trade.

If i may list your lines they appear to be as such;

Your Daily Open which also happens to be NY close
The previous days High and Low
The Weekly Open
and also some lines concerning swing highs and lows

Just remember that your only human. Having a stop significantly larger than your tp requires that you are available take all of the trades your systems offers. For example 10 pip tp and 30 pip stop means 3 wins for 1 loss to hit break even. 75% win rate just to hit break even. Which means that you'd have a higher chance of messing up or missing a winning trade than a losing one. I'd say leaving some space for human error in a trading system is a necessity.

On another note, in just the charts you've posted have you noticed that most of your winners are going 20 or more pips in the direction of your entry? Also, your stop may be prohibiting you from entering the a profitable trade on the retest of your line after price has crossed.

When you test this system, you should take note of how far price actually goes into drawdown on a profitable trade. How far does price go into profits on a profitable trade. Is there a general number that you can set your stop and tp in light of this information that will put you into profits?

The idea of setting a stop should be based on an understanding of how far price has to travel beyond your entry in order for you to know whether you were wrong or not. Testing for these should be done, as Sam0182 has stated, with a lot of data. Not only will it help you find what your looking for but it will also help you create the confidence necessary to trade larger account balances.

The basis of your entry is a pretty good one. If you think about what limits are then you have to realize that if price is returning to these places then a limit order won't move price. Limit orders stop price in its tracks. If price is moving away from these areas then that means market orders are moving the price away. This also means that people have interest in moving prices at these levels. If people have interest then there's a good chance that price will move away heavily rather than create a small bounce. A little bit of research into the market players will give you a good idea of whats possible.

Of course all of this assumes you haven't already done this and i'm just saying things you already know. I don't mean to intrude, just wanted to offer up some ideas.

Interesting concept here. I'm not sure you how long you have been trading this way, but once you get a decent sample of trades. Try and assess how often you have multiple winners in a row. i.e. 2 or 3 or 4 in a row being common?

if so, you might like to use a money management style I use with Binary options ( and Spot FX too ) where you double up on sequences of 3 or 4 high probablity trades, especially if they have a negative R:R - this way you can take advantage of the high probability of these trades, whilst using your Money Management to synthetically increase your R:R ( over a sequence of multiple trades ).

I still think your R:R is a little low risking 3 times the potential profit, but as you tweak your method, you might be able to even this up.

I had great success with binary options with a return of .8R, and with Spot FX i usually set my TP on high prob setups at 1R.

Anyway, see the attached article I wrote ( but never got around to posting anywhere on the binary option forums ). Negative/Neutral R but high prob trading is a valid way to trade in my opinion, but your MM has to match.

The trick with this kind of compounding is to a. have an edge that gets multiple consecutive wins, b. patience to wait for only the best setups and c. see point b.



Before you start doing this though, as I said. Get a good sample of your recent trades, and have a look how often you get 3 or 4 in a row.

My theory with this is, everyone is quick to slam the concept of doubling your position size on losers to break even - and I'm with them on that! doubling up on losers is stupid.

Conversely, Doubling up on Winners - works!


Cheers

Seb

Couple I'm watching as we head into euro sessions...

Easy one on EU. Would like to see this level bust on the next run down so that I can short the first time back.

**Same on GU.

yeah, that would have been a nice trade... but I was sleeping at that time.

I usually place market orders... sometime when I´m at work and don´t have the ability to get on my platform,
I use limit orders...if it is a high probability setup. For example as you mentioned break through a level and wait
for a retouch...I think this is working pretty often.

hi GoodLooking,

thanks for your comments and ideas!


If i may list your lines they appear to be as such;

Your Daily Open which also happens to be NY close
The previous days High and Low
The Weekly Open
and also some lines concerning swing highs and lows

that is correct. I am looking for levels (areas) where price is likely to stop and retrace a bit (not necessarily change its direction)


Just remember that your only human. Having a stop significantly larger than your tp requires that you are available take all of the trades your systems offers. For example 10 pip tp and 30 pip stop means 3 wins for 1 loss to hit break even. 75% win rate just to hit break even. Which means that you'd have a higher chance of messing up or missing a winning trade than a losing one. I'd say leaving some space for human error in a trading system is a necessity.

On another note, in just the charts you've posted have you noticed that most of your winners are going 20 or more pips in the direction of your entry? Also, your stop may be prohibiting you from entering the a profitable trade on the retest of your line after price has crossed.

When you test this system, you should take note of how far price actually goes into drawdown on a profitable trade. How far does price go into profits on a profitable trade. Is there a general number that you can set your stop and tp in light of this information that will put you into profits?


that is what I wanna find out by trading. I have never traded this way before, so I wanna find out by trading it. If I see something really goes wrong with it, I´ll tweak it. and after a good amount of trades I think I will analyze it all properly and change settings.

The idea of setting a stop should be based on an understanding of how far price has to travel beyond your entry in order for you to know whether you were wrong or not. Testing for these should be done, as Sam0182 has stated, with a lot of data. Not only will it help you find what your looking for but it will also help you create the confidence necessary to trade larger account balances.

The basis of your entry is a pretty good one. If you think about what limits are then you have to realize that if price is returning to these places then a limit order won't move price. Limit orders stop price in its tracks. If price is moving away from these areas then that means market orders are moving the price away. This also means that people have interest in moving prices at these levels. If people have interest then there's a good chance that price will move away heavily rather than create a small bounce. A little bit of research into the market players will give you a good idea of whats possible.

Of course all of this assumes you haven't already done this and i'm just saying things you already know. I don't mean to intrude, just wanted to offer up some ideas.

yes, price will only stop if there are limit order sitting in the way. but there are also traders taking there profits at those levels and there are also traders taking trades in the opposite direction just like me. and I think that will make price move at least a little bit in the other direction (retrace/bounce...). That´s my thinking behind all this. and also the bigger stop means that I don´t know exactly where price is stopping. so I leave room for the area (not exact level) plus I wanna make shure that spikes don´t take me out before moving in the right direction.

thank, GoodLooking, for participation. you are welcome to give ideas and thoughts that you have.

G20 meeting today
red news on gbp and usd

did one trade today (limit order got filled while I was away)

trade #15

eur/usd - bounce off yesterdays low

TP 12
SL 30

+12

would have made some nice trades today... but wasn´t at the screen

price was respecting the levels pretty well...

I was thinking the same thing, last night was loaded with setups.

trade #16

gbp/usd - bounce off last weeks low after breakthrough (retest)

TP 12
SL 27

trade # 16

+12

just a couple of minutes

just decided to change my setting for TP & SL:

TP 13
SL 26

which makes my Risk 2 : Reward 1

just missed this nice trade on eur/usd

trade #17

gbp/usd short

TP 12
SL 27

just noticed...I used the old rules.
changed TP from 12 to 13 Pips

moved SL to BE (+2) because the bounce occurred but missed my TP by 2 pips. now there is
almost no movement. so I think there´s no reason to stay in the trade and risk a loss.

trade #17

+2