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  • #65,881
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:19am Feb 14, 2013 4:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ka-Ching!!!
What pt said...wow it went where i thought it would briefly go...this puppy is glad he stayed up with insomnia, caught that all the way down to 1.3332 , beers and new underwear tomorrow.!!!
learn by failure,succeed by learning
Aim Small Return Today: na
  • #65,882
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:28am Feb 14, 2013 5:28am
Good Morning Forex Traders...

1.32800-1.32600 This is the level (zone) I was targeting Monday or Tuesday this week.
And this is where the price is heading now, before further acceleration, IMO.
Nice combination of S/R and Fibo.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post6438630

Mr. market made me a NASTY prank and broke an old and very solid resistance line and only to create a new one after couple of hours.
Well, he’s the boss :-)
For now, I can't see any other scenario then this one below, though "Unemployment Figures" this afternoon may change the whole picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurousd.gif Size: 31 KB
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  • #65,883
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:10am Feb 14, 2013 7:10am
Quicky update on Euro before "unemployment figures"

Inserted Video
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  • #65,884
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:08am Feb 14, 2013 8:08am
Well done Halkins,


Quoting halkins
Good Morning Forex Traders...

1.32800-1.32600 This is the level (zone) I was targeting Monday or Tuesday this week.
And this is where the price is heading now, before further acceleration, IMO.
Nice combination of S/R and Fibo.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post6438630

Mr. market made me a NASTY prank and broke an old and very solid resistance line and only to create a new one after couple of hours.
Well, he’s the boss :-)
For now, I can't see any other scenario then this one below, though "Unemployment...
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,885
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:09am Feb 14, 2013 8:09am
Hello,
an update on the daily chart for the Euro FX futures:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360850556

The iffy 1.3360 level did not hold and it is now possible for the Euro to keep moving lower into the 1.3200 area. We go back to Friday the 12th scenario.

There are two possible moves unfolding in my opinion:

Scenario 1. Price moves into the 1.3200 area and then starts its move higher into the 1.39s

Scenario 2. Price breaks the 1.3200 area and bounces in the next extension short around 1.3230 (this level may slighly change) only to continue lower into 1.2900

I will record a video later on.
Safe trading.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,886
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:32am Feb 14, 2013 10:32am
Quoting fibstalker
Hello,
an update on the daily chart for the Euro FX futures:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360850556

The iffy 1.3360 level did not hold and it is now possible for the Euro to keep moving lower into the 1.3200 area. We go back to Friday the 12th scenario.

There are two possible moves unfolding in my opinion:

Scenario 1. Price moves into the 1.3200 area and then starts its...

I'm all for scenario # 2 and I'm 80% certain it will play out that way before heading back up to retest 1.3510/20 area
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,887
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:40am Feb 14, 2013 10:40am
Hello Pip, I am leaning for Scenario 2 as well, and for me the confirmation of that scenario will come with the violation of the 1.3277 level on the downside. Green pips to us! :-)
Thanks


Quoting PipTrapper
I'm all for scenario # 2 and I'm 80% certain it will play out that way before heading back up to retest 1.3510/20 area
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,888
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:46am Feb 14, 2013 10:46am
and here is why...

hereunder is an update on the Dollar Index trading plan on the daily timeframe aligned to what we could see in the Euro.

Pls, let me have your ideas and comments.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360859352

The Dollar Index held the 79.90 extension long on the daily yesterday and it is currently trading the related support area at 80. This long setup with stop below 79.80, has two targets above at 80.70 (1st target) and then 81.30 (2nd target).

If the Dollar Index keeps trading in extension as it does in its moves higher (the Euro correspondingly moves lower in extension shorts) the next support (after/if traded second target at 81.30) would be at 80.90, with a stop (failure level) below 80.80. Such a further long setup could bring price to targets at 81.50 (1st target area) and then 81.80 (2nd and last target area).

If the Dollar Index gets to the 81.80 area that would be within the old level and area of resistance in the 81.70s. If price gets there and then starts moving lower, a confirmation of a new short would come with price below 81.50.

The violation of the indicated levels as/if we move higher, provide indication for the bearish scenarios/setups. I will use this analysis to help understanding when the current EUR/USD short will end.

Let me know the views on your charts.
Thank you.

Quoting fibstalker
Hello Pip, I am leaning for Scenario 2 as well, and for me the confirmation of that scenario will come with the violation of the 1.3277 level on the downside. Green pips to us! :-)
Thanks
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,889
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:44am Feb 14, 2013 11:44am
Quoting halkins
Good Morning Forex Traders...

For now, I can't see any other scenario then this one below, though "Unemployment Figures" this afternoon may change the whole picture.

Attachment
Heres my picture...got a pretty solid bounce off the 38.2. Showing the next level of support at 50.0 on 1.31940.

Thoughts?
Attached Image
  • #65,890
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:23pm Feb 14, 2013 12:23pm
Hi Chodd,
I didn't find consistency in trading the 38% levels and I often only trade the 50%. I think there we could get a bounce, not here, imho.
But price will tell :-D

Quoting chodd22
Heres my picture...got a pretty solid bounce off the 38.2. Showing the next level of support at 50.0 on 1.31940.

Thoughts?
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,891
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:28pm Feb 14, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting fibstalker
Hi Chodd,
I didn't find consistency in trading the 38% levels and I often only trade the 50%. I think there we could get a bounce, not here, imho.
But price will tell :-D
I agree fratello, I am short right now with a TP at 1.324. Actually doubled down on this bounce off the 38%. Could burn me but such is life.

How is life in Sora today? Also, please PM your URL for your blog again mate.
  • #65,892
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:05am Feb 15, 2013 2:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 56 KB
  • #65,893
  • Feb 15, 2013 2:38am Feb 15, 2013 2:38am
Hey PT,

Would you mind keeping me posted once you decide to get long on EUR/AUD? Nothing worse then seeing where a trade is going in the near future but missing the ride.

I've got my eye on 1.28 but need confirmation at that point before placing trade. Looks like we might hit 1.28 tonight but probably best to wait to go long until next week.

Thanks buddy.
  • #65,894
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:25am Feb 15, 2013 3:25am
Quoting rekon67
Attachment

92 in UJ would be nice - as I'm now trading €J. IF € was down to its 1.3300 level, that would put €J ~ 122.40 - or its S2 level with a daily range of 190 pips (its 20 ADR is 213 pips)

As I just sold again at its recent 50% swing pull back at 123.33, the 122.40 area would make this a rather nice Friday TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,895
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:41am Feb 15, 2013 3:41am
Good Morning,
this is my updated analysis and view on the Euro FX currency futures.
Let me know your ideas, thoughts, comments and what you see on your charts...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_daily_trading_plan_20130215.png Size: 63 KB


The Euro very probably started a move lower into the 1.2900 area. Program trading is currently selling the 1.3390 area using the 1.3480 anchor.

For short-term traders the immediate targets are lower at the 1.3280 area (1st) and 1.3220 (2nd), or right into 1.3200 support area.

Retraces to add to swing shorts could come in the 1.3250 (area a) after a bounce off the 1.3200 support area, or below it around the 1.3210 area after a bounce from the 100-day SMA (area b).

I believe the Euro has targets in the 1.2840-1.2900 area before a move higher can resume.

Let me know your thoughts.

PS: I have recorded a video for the day of today where I show the analysis on the daily chart

Thank you
Trade safe, is Friday.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,896
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:41am Feb 15, 2013 4:41am
Quoting fibstalker
Good Morning,
this is my updated analysis and view on the Euro FX currency futures.
Let me know your ideas, thoughts, comments and what you see on your charts...
(...)
[Trade safe, is Friday.
Hi Fibstalker...
I am watching closely how price behaves on the bunch of 3x50MA's.
They have played an important role of strong support since November 2012 and we just sit on it at this moment.
Will it break it or take it? I don't know but price should make some reaction at this level...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurousd.gif Size: 28 KB

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  • #65,897
  • Feb 15, 2013 4:58am Feb 15, 2013 4:58am
Quoting halkins
Hi Fibstalker...
I am watching closely how price behaves on the bunch of 3x50MA's.
They have played an important role of strong support since November 2012 and we just sit on it at this moment.
Will it break it or take it? I don't know but price should make some reaction at this level...

Attachment
---
I use 50MA as a guide as it's very close to the 0 point of MACD. Anything above, remain support/bullish, anything below remain bearish/rejected.

Daily stills seats on 23.6 area of 1.37-1.20, still on the uptrend, a move below 50ma on daily would signify my next actions to be bearish for retracement downwards from 23.6 to higher.
  • #65,898
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:08am Feb 15, 2013 5:08am
Quoting 5percent
I use 50MA as a guide as it's very close to the 0 point of MACD. Anything above, remain support/bullish, anything below remain bearish/rejected.

Daily stills seats on 23.6 area of 1.37-1.20, still on the uptrend, a move below 50ma on daily would signify my next actions to be bearish for retracement downwards from 23.6 to higher.
I also like the 50 EMA. However, I use it with 20 EMA as well. Right now price is sitting nicely right on top of the 50 EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_-_D1_(2-15).jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #65,899
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:15am Feb 15, 2013 5:15am
Quoting 5percent
I use 50MA as a guide as it's very close to the 0 point of MACD. Anything above, remain support/bullish, anything below remain bearish/rejected.

Daily stills seats on 23.6 area of 1.37-1.20, still on the uptrend, a move below 50ma on daily would signify my next actions to be bearish for retracement downwards from 23.6 to higher.
Even if it breaks I still think it will trigger a large buying activity again at 1.32700
61.80% Fibo will be a nice tasty cake for bulls :-)

Here's my yesterday post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post6445526
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  • #65,900
  • Feb 15, 2013 5:44am Feb 15, 2013 5:44am
All, thanks for your input and charts. I only use some SMAs like 20 100 and 200-bar SMA, but never to take trading decisions directly on them. I consider them self-fullfilling prophecies that can break sequences of measured moves on 4-hour or daily charts.

Chat to you l8r.
Ciao
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
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