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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #7,761
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:10pm Feb 13, 2013 1:10pm
Hi
thanks vensen ,however i am trying to work out usd/jpy h4 chart from the low of the 5 waves 92.807 to 93.765 if this is a 3 wave completed b.also if i could form a triangle off this wave b to see if it will break-out and exit downwards to confirm wave 3 of perhaps the wave c of a zig-zag. The rules determine if a is 5 down of correction retrace 3 to form zig-zag leading to wave c. Luis if you are available please help.
Cross.
  • #7,762
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:38pm Feb 13, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
It is possible that euron yen could get down now, but be careful to trade against the trend
thanks for the tip
  • #7,763
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:40pm Feb 13, 2013 1:40pm
my eurusd trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - stime1 - Feb-13 2039 PM (10 min).jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #7,764
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:58pm Feb 13, 2013 1:58pm
eurjpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY - stime - Feb-13 2058 PM (15 min).jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #7,765
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:13pm Feb 13, 2013 2:13pm
Quoting infinitus
Do you expect the fake USD-Index move at the beginning of the deflation or simply with it?


I am asking, because I look for a global deflation with surging USD all along. That is founded on the belief, that most debt worldwide is denominated in USD. When this debt implodes, it will give strength to the remaining USD. Keep in mind: most debt comes in form of IOU's - so is not actually money, but would dilute the money at some point in time. But with imploding debt these IOU's have no chance to dilute the monetary base anymore.

Another factor...
I agree completely.
I expect the SHS in USD Index to begin (soon):

https://origin.ih.constantcontact.co...466/img/41.png

The markets will "correct" in the near future and afterwards it will begin the scenario "this time is different!".
I think Louis is expecting also a correction and then 1600 on SPX (good view .

@Mr. Scott
Quote
Fed is not able to raise interest rates at all, ever, due to budget and deficit. They know this fact, but are waiting(hoping) that economy will recover. It will not due to economic conditions you point out. Relatively small increase in interest rates will blow US budget.

Fed is innovating and has no clue how it will control the fear that will come for sure. Theoretically, a small increase in interest rates will blow US budget. Of course! You know, sometimes ill people die. It is just happening.

Quote
I do understand the argument and risk of deflation, I just think the US will inflate rather than deflate at all costs. IMO, this would include forgiveness and buying of all debt.

I gave the example to infinitus because it has just happened to enter the dollar on May 5th 2011 especially due to Silver mania and hyperinflation fears.
The Fed will inflate as long as... it works. When the interest rates go to high we got deflation legs:

http://biiwii.com/wordpress/wp-conte...012/12/tyx.png

The red arrows show you "hyperinflation" manias. We're going towards ~40 (Red EMA hyperinflation) and then under ~25 (deflation legs).

Hence, they inflate but not at all costs. Above 40 is too expensive.

graphs are from here:
http://biiwii.com/wordpress/
  • #7,766
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:16pm Feb 13, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting aristotel
I agree completely.
I expect the SHS in USD Index to begin (soon):

https://origin.ih.constantcontact.co...466/img/41.png

The markets will "correct" in the near future and afterwards it will begin the scenario "this time is different!".
I think Louis is expecting also a correction and then 1600 on SPX (good view .

@Mr. Scott


Fed is innovating and has no clue how it will control the fear that will come for sure. Theoretically, a small increase in interest rates will blow US budget. Of course! You know, sometimes...
thanks a lot
very good
  • #7,767
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:19pm Feb 13, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
My friend, I mostly agree with you. Perhaps, it is a matter of perspective.

I am in the US, that is what I experience and know best. So, from my perspective, Fed is not able to raise interest rates at all, ever, due to budget and deficit. They know this fact, but are waiting(hoping) that economy will recover. It will not due to economic conditions you point out. Relatively small increase in interest rates will blow US budget. Also, Helicopter Ben is a student of the depression and will want to avoid that scenario at all costs. So, US will...


Hi Scott,


we have to consider the amount of debt vs. the outstanding money:


when I do remember correctly we have i the USA a monetary base of roughly 5 T., versus debt of more than 50 T (only debt in USA); worldwide USD denominated debt (do not nail me on that) is about 200 T.

When only 10% of this debt implodes (of the 50 T.), Helicopter Benny can double the monetary base without causing inflation. Do the math with 20% debt implosion or 30%. He then can not print fast enough to cover up. That is DEFLATION.

Have to search my hard drive for the true numbers.....


But you know: Deflationist and Inflationist views differ from the get go, and we can find zillions of arguments for both sides, unfortunately.
  • #7,768
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:44pm Feb 13, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting venzen
Indeed, but is there an alternative?

BTW - I was just reading up about the inverse relationship between stocks and the USD - risk-on/risk-off alternation, etc. It made me think about the AudUsd setup we were discussing a few weeks back. Seems the imminent correction in stocks and its implication of USD valuation will drive the AudUsd pair down - so, in the light of competing wave counts, I am opting for a short position on the pair.
Count on AUDUSD weekly TF


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Weekly_snapshot.jpg Size: 166 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Weekly_snapshot 2.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #7,769
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:46pm Feb 13, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting infinitus
Count on AUDUSD weekly TF


Attachment

Attachment


some suggestions what folows after the wave 5?
  • #7,770
  • Feb 13, 2013 2:55pm Feb 13, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting infinitus
some suggestions what folows after the wave 5?
maybe this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Daily_snapshot.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #7,771
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:30pm Feb 13, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting aristotel
I agree completely.
I expect the SHS in USD Index to begin (soon):

https://origin.ih.constantcontact.co...466/img/41.png

The markets will "correct" in the near future and afterwards it will begin the scenario "this time is different!".
I think Louis is expecting also a correction and then 1600 on SPX (good view .

@Mr. Scott


Fed is innovating and has no clue how it will control the fear that will come for sure. Theoretically, a small increase in interest rates will blow US budget. Of course! You know, sometimes...
Thank you for this post, i have no charting software for USD Index, but if i remember right, if this H&S pattern plays out(it could form the right shoulder), it would activate a bigger H&S pattern on longer therm.
just do it
  • #7,772
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:16pm Feb 13, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting infinitus
On last Friday we had 93% EURUSD bulls - can hardly get better for a contrarian LOL
Where do you get this number? I've seen you use couple of times, but is this copies on the charts later on, an indicator, live data feed...?


BR
  • #7,773
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:22pm Feb 13, 2013 4:22pm
Elliottwave Free Plan for 7 days... http://elliottwave-forecast.com/plan-promo-trial/

Elliottwave 7 dias gratis en espanol. http://elliottwave-forecast.es/plan-promo-trial/
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,774
  • Feb 13, 2013 4:37pm Feb 13, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting tp0440
Where do you get this number? I've seen you use couple of times, but is this copies on the charts later on, an indicator, live data feed...?


BR
I get the numbers from a friend who is working as prop-trader for a German bank


google DSI
  • #7,775
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:12pm Feb 13, 2013 8:12pm
Just tell me where is the Kiwi today...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1350672262
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,776
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:47pm Feb 13, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Just tell me where is the Kiwi today...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1350672262
Hi Luis

84.75 NZ

I live in NZ,I do pending shorts with this pair.

Always win an never lose,tricky when it sitting around 85 cents


i
  • #7,777
  • Feb 13, 2013 8:57pm Feb 13, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting crosswind
Hi
thanks vensen ,however i am trying to work out usd/jpy h4 chart from the low of the 5 waves 92.807 to 93.765 if this is a 3 wave completed b.also if i could form a triangle off this wave b to see if it will break-out and exit downwards to confirm wave 3 of perhaps the wave c of a zig-zag. The rules determine if a is 5 down of correction retrace 3 to form zig-zag leading to wave c. Luis if you are available please help.
Cross.
Cross, put the count you are talking about on the 4h chart and then it will be easier to discuss it. Don't be shy to post your counts here - we are all sharing and learning, ok?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,778
  • Feb 13, 2013 9:34pm Feb 13, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting infinitus
maybe this:

Attachment
Very good, I believe your alternative C is correct.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,779
  • Feb 13, 2013 11:49pm Feb 13, 2013 11:49pm
Quoting infinitus
Count on AUDUSD weekly TF


Attachment
infinitus, your count looks good. Pulling the Fib tool across the entire advance puts wave 4 where you'd expect. Some concern tho, that EWI have 3 where you have 5 - could you put a MACD (default settings) on there, please. That will help clarify the placement of 3. (I would do it but don't have enough price history on my platform)
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,780
  • Feb 14, 2013 12:04am Feb 14, 2013 12:04am
Quoting venzen
infinitus, your count looks good. Pulling the Fib tool across the entire advance puts wave 4 where you'd expect. Some concern tho, that EWI have 3 where you have 5 - could you put a MACD (default settings) on there, please. That will help clarify the placement of 3. (I would do it but don't have enough price history on my platform)
Hi Venzen,

to determine the wave 3 I use Awesome Oscillator in that way, that I use that TF that produces between 120-140 bars for the whole wave. And AO confirms my view.


Here is a picture with both AO and MACD in default settings. Both tell the same in this case
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Weekly_snapshot.jpg Size: 114 KB
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