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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,981
  • Feb 13, 2013 10:43am Feb 13, 2013 10:43am
Quoting Kanzler
I've never seen a good reason to scale in. Most of the time this behavior is an avoidance technique because a person can't handle loss even if they say they can.


avoidance technique? couldn't say - only comments i've seen that subject came from kenfen69 ...

for me, it method of raising leverage while keeping risk near zero. idea is build up profit, then use most for riskless increase position size. the deal otherwise? ...there are provisos:

1. use with high entry uncertainty (as w/volatility squeeze per above case of .uj)
2. take poss slippage into account
3. have expectation of large (100+p for .uj) run target - to allow min 4-5 leverage rachets
4. trade in country with high economic freedom w/broker that allow 200x or more lev (unfortunately, i am loc in usa)

the last condition is probably most important... for me works best w/overseas demo's that permit lev 200x or more.

sadly, usa serves it's cronies instead of it's population - places like australia, canada, uk and europe are much better in this regard. here in the usa, reg agencies like CFTC are more interested in giving brokers cover to lim lever w/o fear of competition than in pursuing crooks (why did it so long to catch up with wasserman and corzine - and why is corzine STILL not in prison!!!). but hedging, lev lim and such help brokers line their pockets with money... much more important to cftc

bottom line pro/con scaling:

pro: if price moves in same direction w/o signif retrace, you make OBSCENE amount, one trade

con: if price whipsaws, you get only small loss or profit for your trouble

beyond that, one of most complicated trades to execute that i know of ... definitely not for beginners
  • #32,982
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:33pm Feb 13, 2013 12:33pm
"The market is widely positioned for the Bank of Japan to announce no new measures at its meeting overnight, especially in light of a new BOJ governor taking over in April, says Brian Kim of RBS. Should the central bank really surprise, it would open up an initial swift move weaker in the yen, Kim says. But even that move could be fleeting because, anecdotally, the Y94 to Y95 range is shaping up as an area of resistance and the G-20 meeting could still lead to some anger being pointed toward Japan for its measures taken to weaken the currency. The dollar is at Y93.37 from Y93.49 late Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. "
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  • #32,983
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:54pm Feb 13, 2013 12:54pm
USD/JPY WEEKLY CHART

THERE IS A BIG RESISTANCE AT 94.80
WE CAN SEE A RETRACEMENT TO THE 88.50

http://i49.tinypic.com/22ddmg.gif





GBP/USD WEEKLY CHART

WE CAN SEE A BIG RISING TO THE 1.64 AGAIN.

http://i46.tinypic.com/rw42zk.gif


FIRST TARGET: 1.5880 ( TWO WEEKS LATER)
SECOND TARGET: 1.6170 (FIVE WEEKS LATER)
THIRD TARGET: 1.6350 (SIX WEEKS LATER)

GL
  • #32,984
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:35pm Feb 13, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting davidsayli
USD/JPY WEEKLY CHART

THERE IS A BIG RESISTANCE AT 94.80
WE CAN SEE A RETRACEMENT TO THE 88.50
Or we can see "retracement" to 100.. IT's all depends on how Central Banks will play this.
So far I see intervention after the other.. in JPY or EUR in the last 2 days..
What if Japanese will announce easing tonight, while public completely not expecting?
I think Sell STOP and BUY stop should be the best approach, unless you going to babysit charts overnight,
Good luck.
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  • #32,985
  • Feb 13, 2013 3:37pm Feb 13, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting davidsayli
FIRST TARGET: 1.5880 ( TWO WEEKS LATER)
SECOND TARGET: 1.6170 (FIVE WEEKS LATER)
THIRD TARGET: 1.6350 (SIX WEEKS LATER)

GL
And here is GBPUSD (Cable) chart to consider..

http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-an...arry-trade.jpg
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  • #32,986
  • Feb 14, 2013 10:56am Feb 14, 2013 10:56am
Hello all,
I think this can be good to keep in mind when trading the USD-related pairs. Let me have your ideas/comments...

Here is an update on the Dollar Index trading plan on the daily timeframe aligned to what we could see in the Euro.
Pls, let me have your ideas and comments.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360859352

The Dollar Index held the 79.90 extension long on the daily yesterday and it is currently trading the related support area at 80. This long setup with stop below 79.80, has two targets above at 80.70 (1st target) and then 81.30 (2nd target).

If the Dollar Index keeps trading in extension as it does in its moves higher (the Euro correspondingly moves lower in extension shorts) the next support (after/if traded second target at 81.30) would be at 80.90, with a stop (failure level) below 80.80. Such a further long setup could bring price to targets at 81.50 (1st target area) and then 81.80 (2nd and last target area).

If the Dollar Index gets to the 81.80 area that would be within the old level and area of resistance in the 81.70s. If price gets there and then starts moving lower, a confirmation of a new short would come with price below 81.50.

The violation of the indicated levels as/if we move higher, provide indication for the bearish scenarios/setups. I will use this analysis to help understanding when the current EUR/USD short will end.

Let me know the views on your charts.
Thank you.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #32,987
  • Feb 14, 2013 11:08am Feb 14, 2013 11:08am
what u think bro ?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1360748792

Quoting fibstalker
Hello all,
I think this can be good to keep in mind when trading the USD-related pairs. Let me have your ideas/comments...

Here is an update on the Dollar Index trading plan on the daily timeframe aligned to what we could see in the Euro.
Pls, let me have your ideas and comments.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360859352

The Dollar Index held the 79.90 extension long on the daily yesterday...
not euphoria follower
  • #32,988
  • Feb 14, 2013 4:54pm Feb 14, 2013 4:54pm
hello iqy,
not easy in that spot with my method but PM-ed a video I recorded last week.
Let me know what you think.
Cheers
G.


Quoting iqyu5an
what u think bro ?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1360748792
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #32,989
  • Feb 14, 2013 5:13pm Feb 14, 2013 5:13pm
Also waited for this pattern long.

WPV 92.90 has to be broken and confirmed, or double confirmed if you plan more lot.
Tomorrow is Friday, so before Mo or Tu no entry for me. On D1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $Y daily.jpg Size: 294 KB
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  • #32,990
  • Feb 14, 2013 6:08pm Feb 14, 2013 6:08pm
this pair finally after rising for weeks on end has encountered resistance at the 94.20 handle and is going sideways
so its in a tight range 92.80 to 93.60 for now
  • #32,991
  • Feb 14, 2013 6:51pm Feb 14, 2013 6:51pm
Quoting Halba
this pair finally after rising for weeks on end has encountered resistance at the 94.20 handle and is going sideways
so its in a tight range 92.80 to 93.60 for now
Look at the Monthly chart over several years like 10 years, and draw a fib retracement of the downward move from July 2007. I expected resistance between 93.40 - 94.70. We will volatility and sideways movement until it decides what to do. I attached my chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD.JPY M1 2-14-2013 7-48-31 PM.jpg Size: 200 KB
  • #32,992
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:41pm Feb 14, 2013 7:41pm
Big scary bearish bar. Time to go long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 54 KB
  • #32,993
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:57pm Feb 14, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting Kanzler
Big scary bearish bar. Time to go long.
We are talking about D1, you H1

But, your are right.
plus the M5 opportunities. Or M1 scalps.
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  • #32,994
  • Feb 14, 2013 7:58pm Feb 14, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Halba
this pair finally after rising for weeks on end has encountered resistance at the 94.20 handle and is going sideways
so its in a tight range 92.80 to 93.60 for now
he he, thought the same.

We will see..

Also have a look at W1.

btw i usually scalp.
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  • #32,995
  • Feb 14, 2013 8:50pm Feb 14, 2013 8:50pm
it has bounced off the demand zone. a good scalp for a m1 trader only asian session.

i am liking this pair more and more, good scalps, fantastic spread, decent volatility, just like euro

near term support 92.70 has held well
  • #32,996
  • Feb 15, 2013 3:26am Feb 15, 2013 3:26am
Hello guys

I registered a false breakout from a high last week 94.00

We also have a broken trend linea .

I watched h1 and there found chart pattern .
Target I took place around the high of last month.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: h1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #32,997
  • Feb 17, 2013 6:45am Feb 17, 2013 6:45am
Quoting iqyu5an
weekly

Deep Crab ( + extreem ) is seen in weekly time frame in Anti-persistence zone ( value 0 - 0.5 : whatever is happening now is likely to reverse) and BAT

D : exceed standard ratio ( 1.61 ) of XA ( that's the reason i say extreme and overshoot ) but still in range of AB leg

http://harmonictrader.com/deepcrabbearre.PNG

Deep Crab
___

not sure either but that's what i see
.


Quoting iqyu5an
what u think bro ?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1360748792
not euphoria follower
  • #32,998
  • Feb 18, 2013 4:58pm Feb 18, 2013 4:58pm
Hello, guys. What's the thread consensus on UJ? I've set a pending order to buy UJ at 93.35: there's plenty of support below and the trend is still upward on the higher time-frames.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-h1-alpari-uk-ltd.png Size: 31 KB
  • #32,999
  • Feb 19, 2013 6:07am Feb 19, 2013 6:07am
USDJPY H1

There are two Levels for Sell Position 93.67 and 93.78
Sell Position= 93.67 or 93.78
T/P1= 93.25
T/P2=92.45
T/P3=92.25
S/L=94.05
Right now is on 93.55 waiting to retrace above the mentioned levels
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #33,000
  • Feb 20, 2013 2:08pm Feb 20, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting Aristotrader
Hello, guys. What's the thread consensus on UJ? I've set a pending order to buy UJ at 93.35: there's plenty of support below and the trend is still upward on the higher time-frames.
My pending order was filled and the trade hit the profit level shown on the chart. I'm looking to enter long again with a similar set-up when the price decreases to ~93.60.

Note: The particular entry isn't as important as the general set-up. I have have identified favourable trends on the higher time-frames, strong price-levels of support to place my rescue trades above and stop-losses behind, and therefore know that the eventuality of a losing trade is rare enough to allow overall profits.
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