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As Easy as "PI"

  • #401
  • Feb 11, 2013 10:05am Feb 11, 2013 10:05am
Quoting -er-
i just opened a demo account at saxo bank and there was thise big add saying usd jpy going to 60 (prediction from saxo bank),

( my first thinking was wow what a nice prediction , only after i also sow the date , so beer white me )
No worries.
  • #402
  • Feb 11, 2013 10:05am Feb 11, 2013 10:05am
Quoting spyderman
Well, I don't know if they're experts or not...I'm sure I'm no expert.

In my mind here is what the 'experts' are saying, at least for today. I call them experts, because they are actually the ones determining Japanese currency policy. And notice, they don't say anything about charts or waves.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...justified.html
between us i dont think there is a real "expert" on the market , but i have to look for same thing so thise wod be the wave analysis , evry one
look at different stuf.
Iam just A pips on the rode :nerd:
  • #403
  • Feb 11, 2013 10:54am Feb 11, 2013 10:54am
Quoting fugly
Spydie great thread great method plus your one of the few who has the courage to run a linked explorer for your system.

Hats off to you.

only thing is the gyrations in your equity are humongous, have you given any thought to running tight trailing stops or some sort of profit lock in method to maintain a smoother equity curve?
Hi Spydie, Love your thread. A couple of possibilities re building your balance while your equity grows. 1) Pay yourself regularly, ie weekly or monthly, some fraction that makes sense based on the growth dynamics of your Equity Heat. 2) Set a high Limit order, eg 1000 pips or more, to Take Profit. This will not be hit on modest runs, but for super runs there will be a new crop of pips coming soon behind from add-on positions. This latter approach is like harvesting coffee as opposed to harvesting corn. With coffee there will be 3 or 4 harvests each season, but with corn you are always sweating the weather. Obviously any approach will "cost" opportunity pips, but many will be lost anyway. Just trying to be sensibly greedy.
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #404
  • Feb 11, 2013 1:12pm Feb 11, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Spydie, Love your thread. A couple of possibilities re building your balance while your equity grows. 1) Pay yourself regularly, ie weekly or monthly, some fraction that makes sense based on the growth dynamics of your Equity Heat. 2) Set a high Limit order, eg 1000 pips or more, to Take Profit. This will not be hit on modest runs, but for super runs there will be a new crop of pips coming soon behind from add-on positions. This latter approach is like harvesting coffee as opposed to harvesting corn. With coffee there will be 3 or 4 harvests...
hmmm. Have to think about that. Could even do that on every other position or whatever.

Still need to figure out the lot size increase as equity increases. Of course if I was employing what you're talking about I might switch to % of balance.
  • #405
  • Feb 11, 2013 3:55pm Feb 11, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting spyderman
Yes....yes .....it is heading to 60 alright...they forgot the 1 in front......160.00!!!!

That is the reason I am 100% technical trader.......

This can influence someones trading......trade what you see.....if it decides and when to go to 60 we will see it make the move.....we will have time to jump in.....it will not go to 60 one shot...."you can't hide an elephant"........
  • #406
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:27pm Feb 11, 2013 4:27pm
So thus far our options for a better exit are:

Tightening our trailing stop. If hit prematurely will close all orders and we have to start over if trend resumes. If trend is changing...great.

Coffee Harvest Set a high T/P on orders (maybe only some orders). If hit it would mean you have a lot of other positions under the threshold that would still be trailing at the 22MA. Down side is your closing the door on potential 2000 pip positions. (I currently have 9 positions over 1000 pips.) This idea is growing on me. Thanks Albina Grande.

Any other ideas.
  • #407
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:29pm Feb 11, 2013 4:29pm
7500 pips to the good today. What a roller coaster. One thing to do that now with a relatively small account. Could you imagine the sphincter factor if your account was 100K. Gotta get this exit figured out.
  • #408
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:40pm Feb 11, 2013 4:40pm
Hi Spyderman,
I think finding the "right" answer might be in the eye of the pip holder, it might come down to what makes to feel good as opposed to what makes me feel good. I think whilst in a growing stage Albina Grande's idea seems like a good one, but again, at what level will you be happy to take pips off the table??, maybe another idea is, we are entering the trade with a breakout of the high of a recent pullback(long) so why not trail your stop at the cooresponding swing low that has completed just prior to the breakout.
As to the impending sphincter excercise, if you are starting small and building up to it maybe the effect will lesson as you get used to it, but right now, i couldn't imagine dealing with such swings in equity.
Love the thread, keep it up

cheers
Geoff
  • #409
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:42pm Feb 11, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting spyderman

Coffee Harvest Set a high T/P on orders (maybe only some orders). If hit it would mean you have a lot of other positions under the threshold that would still be trailing at the 22MA. Down side is your closing the door on potential 2000 pip positions. (I currently have 9 positions over 1000 pips.) This idea is growing on me. Thanks Albina Grande.

Could also close 1/2 of every position when it reaches a certain milestone. Then could go 1/2 again. If you used 1000 pips you'd continue to have the same t/p amount...1/2 the size, twice the pips...
  • #410
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:50pm Feb 11, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting geoffrod
Hi Spyderman,
I think finding the "right" answer might be in the eye of the pip holder, it might come down to what makes to feel good as opposed to what makes me feel good. I think whilst in a growing stage Albina Grande's idea seems like a good one, but again, at what level will you be happy to take pips off the table??, maybe another idea is, we are entering the trade with a breakout of the high of a recent pullback(long) so why not trail your stop at the cooresponding swing low that has completed just prior to the breakout.
As to the impending...

You're right. Everyone is going to have to use what they're comfortable with. I like the low of pullback idea in general. Problem is, sometimes the pullback is so small (maybe just a few pips) and for a short duration (1 day) that a stop there wouldn't make as much sense as on a deeper pullback that lasted several days. Especially if you moved a lot of positions up that tight.
  • #411
  • Feb 12, 2013 6:52am Feb 12, 2013 6:52am
How about volatility based trailing stop ? So far its working somewhat good, just messing my position sizing because I made stupid deciosion to atjust it to latest volatility.
  • #412
  • Feb 12, 2013 7:03am Feb 12, 2013 7:03am
Quoting uberteh
How about volatility based trailing stop ? So far its working somewhat good, just messing my position sizing because I made stupid deciosion to atjust it to latest volatility.
So how exactly are you implementing that.
  • #413
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:07am Feb 12, 2013 9:07am
I enter trade and my stop is trailing based on ATR.
  • #414
  • Feb 12, 2013 9:15am Feb 12, 2013 9:15am
Hi Uberteh
Could you please share us a chart about where would be your stops based on ATR. I dont really care which charts you'll choose for example.

Thank you

Mfinab,
  • #415
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:21am Feb 12, 2013 10:21am
Why would u need a chart for that , For example ATR 14 shows u value 200, that can be your trailing stop. Exact values and amounts to use depends on style of system, your goals etc etc. I'm not trading this system and dont know what values could be optimal or if idea good for what spyder wants at all, just an idea then it comes to trend trading systems exits.
  • #416
  • Feb 12, 2013 10:52am Feb 12, 2013 10:52am
Quoting spyderman
So thus far our options for a better exit are:

Tightening our trailing stop. If hit prematurely will close all orders and we have to start over if trend resumes. If trend is changing...great.

Coffee Harvest Set a high T/P on orders (maybe only some orders). If hit it would mean you have a lot of other positions under the threshold that would still be trailing at the 22MA. Down side is your closing the door on potential 2000 pip positions. (I currently have 9 positions over 1000 pips.) This idea is growing on me. Thanks Albina...
Glad to hear that Coffee Harvest is of interest. Right now I am having computer problems - Carnivales in Panama, but I will try to put together some examples based on EJ and a hyper aggressive, related strategy where the differences hopefully can stand out. I have wanted to do this for some time. Now I have a good excuse for Mrs. AG.
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #417
  • Feb 12, 2013 1:27pm Feb 12, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Glad to hear that Coffee Harvest is of interest. Right now I am having computer problems - Carnivales in Panama, but I will try to put together some examples based on EJ and a hyper aggressive, related strategy where the differences hopefully can stand out. I have wanted to do this for some time. Now I have a good excuse for Mrs. AG.
Look forward to see what you come up with.
  • #418
  • Feb 13, 2013 7:59am Feb 13, 2013 7:59am
Quoting spyderman
Look forward to see what you come up with.
This is really a great way to trade , i being trading use ur system but , i would like to say closed some position at a certain level i saw the return increase from 1300% to 3800% and it now drop to a 300% the draw down is really to low .right now u at 1100%, hope i can find a solution about it the 14ema it not really a bad idea .plz i would like trailing ma , i would pm you .
  • #419
  • Feb 13, 2013 12:58pm Feb 13, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Glad to hear that Coffee Harvest is of interest. Right now I am having computer problems - Carnivales in Panama, but I will try to put together some examples based on EJ and a hyper aggressive, related strategy where the differences hopefully can stand out. I have wanted to do this for some time. Now I have a good excuse for Mrs. AG.
Hi Spydy,

A couple of graphics to look at related to Coffee Harvest. The first shows a schematic of the problem: How to lock in as much profit as possible while sacrificing as little “potential” profit as is practical, recognizing that some give back is unavoidable or even desirable in anticipation of further Equity Growth.

Attached Image


The second is a look at EJ for the 6 week period Nov 15, 2012 to Feb 1, 2013. I have highlighted the important results because unfortunately the Equity/ Balance curves are quite faint. The Limits run from 500 to 2000 in 500 pip intervals. In general the results here parallel my previous impressions with other pairs over the last 2 years where for Surges ONLY, such as the Yen pairs at present, a Limit of 750 to 1000 seems to work fairly well.

Of course Beauty is in the Eyes of the Beholder. There are obvious trade offs. As Your Balance builds, it does so at the expense of your Equity. Que Sorpresa!!!

The charts should be self explanatory. The Strategy is similar to yours - adding on to a trend on Daily Charts. The details are not so important. It is the concept that I am after. For this simulation the initial Balance is 50K. The Balance build up is high lighted at the lower Right corner of each Thumb. You can see the shrinkage in Equity value on the Right hand side as well. 500 is clearly not enough and 1500 may not be practical. Of course the Limit can always be adjusted on the fly. Working with Daily charts gives plenty of time for reflection.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 02-01, EJ D1, BUY CoffeeH, FF.jpg Size: 53 KB


Finally, every pair and Surge as it evolves needs to be seen as a new phenomenon. The above is strictly intended to be seen as guidance. The smoother the Trend the easier the Management and the better the results.

Hope this helps to clarify my thoughts. For sure I do not want to distract from your terrific Thread with lots of questions NOT directly related to your content. So please Guys, as Mrs AG says,- What you see is what you get!

Albina Grande
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #420
  • Feb 13, 2013 1:43pm Feb 13, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Spydy,

A couple of graphics to look at related to Coffee Harvest. The first shows a schematic of the problem: How to lock in as much profit as possible while sacrificing as little “potential” profit as is practical, recognizing that some give back is unavoidable or even desirable in anticipation of further Equity Growth.

Attachment

The second is a look at EJ for the 6 week period Nov 15, 2012 to Feb 1, 2013. I have highlighted the important results because unfortunately the Equity/ Balance curves are quite faint. The Limits...
Thanks much AG. I'll look these over. I certainly don't mind anyone asking questions if you don't mind answering. At least as it relates to nailing down a more profitable exit strategy.
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