Elliott wave outlook

& think now that america is becoming in big problems. Eu is stronger. United States of America will have Strong inflation. It is the only currency not covered with gold.

Structural it is no fine my friend

CG you will the same GJ 148.XX to end

BE careful this week is hard for the euro

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EUR/USD was trading lower last week, in my opinion this is just corrective 4 wave and we will see this major pair back to 1.3700 level soon. i will post chart on Monday when i get back to office

Have a nice weekend traders,
-ND-

a>c<e is not a triangle

EJ

It seems to me that EJ is at a critical juncture and that the decline from here may be severe. Is this due to weakness in it's Euro component or due to some renewed strength in the Yen? I'm not sure, but the chart below argues for a larger degree downtrend.

My preferred count (in green on the chart below) sees 5w down as complete, (a) of (2) is a running flat, (b) a triangle (current PA) and next up comes wave (c) of (2) which should revisit last week's pivot at 125.39. If this scenario plays out then the subsequent wave (3) decline will be strong since the next major pivot down from here is the January 2013 monthly pivot at 120.00 which is also a Fib projection of wave (1) down, as well as a 23.6% retracement of the entire advance since July 2012.

Alternatively, in pink, is a count that sees wave (2) as complete (or nearly so) and the start of wave (3) down. The problem with this view is that wave (2) is a very shallow retracement of (1). Let's see if a bigger retracement develops, but this count essentially warns that (3) down may start unexpectedly.

Lastly, another alternative (in blue) sees the declining 5w end lower at 122.23 for completion of (1). Problem with this view is that the existing labels 3 & 4 are invalidated or shifted into some unknown higher degree 1-2 or perhaps same degree 3-4 of a diagonal structure for all of (1). Although there are some Fib ratio benefits to his count, structurally it is not happy.

The underlying assumption in all this is that trend has turned at the recent peak (Y) on 6 Feb after 6 months of uptrend in a correction.

Hi CG
What I meant to say.EJ H1 m15.Nice weekend to all.
Cheers.

EU

This EU chart shows both a bullish (in white) and bearish (in pink) count. Whilst I am 100% longterm bearish on the global economy I also don't discount the ability of cenbanks to intervene to hell-and-gone and thereby postpone the inevitable. However, in most markets, both wave counts and bullish sentiment are at extremes and at some point it's got to drop. As Peter Tosh says: "If it drop, it will pop".

The latest EW Financial Forecast put it this way:
"The near-term wave structure is open to differing interpretations, but the sentiment picture is clear:
Euro optimism and dollar pessimism are consistent with a decline and a rally, respectively."

Keeping alternate counts is more critical than ever.

Hi luis and venzen,
please could you share your views ,on that usd index daily, on if it is a triangle or not, or alternative if it is a 5 wave up then the direction next could be retrace correction.help.
Regards.

I don't have a chart study of the Dollar index but, looking at a daily chart, my opinion is that the entire structure since last year's low at 78.60 is a compound correction which is currently tracing out wave C to the upside. I would expect to see 5 waves go higher to at least 81.00.

This is just my own view - based more on global economic conditions than a confident working count. The best trades I've executed have been based on my own working count of an instrument. As price action confirms your wave counts and Fib levels you achieve a lot in terms of concentration; reading the waves correctly; and profit

As soon as price action does something unexpected you know to stop trading that instrument until you once more get confirmation of what your Fib levels and counts anticipated. This approach (for me) keeps it all profitable and enjoyable

Sorry I can't give you a confident and informed opinion about DX direction. Maybe close your position until you're confident?

Edit: corrected my assessment above since I was looking at an inverted index chart (shows how much I actually know!)

Dollar should go a little higher to complete the correction

Euro yen

Interesting count. Entonces our wave counts will both be valid for some time!

Hello Luis

Playing around with the eur/yen

just trying to be on the right of these big moves

Should be another interesting week

exit 1.3386

EJ 15m