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  • #27,321
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:36am Feb 8, 2013 8:36am
I suspect that DB is cheating on aud these days with another currency pair!!
  • #27,322
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:46am Feb 8, 2013 8:46am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Okay that's fine and all. I won't disagree with any of the 5-3 is most efficient stuff. Mainly cause I'm not an engineer. But let me ask you this then... how do you differentiate between 5-3 and 5.35-3.53?

Or how about 5.3535-3.5353?

It goes on and on. So how do you know which wave you are on? Where does it end? Where does the next one start? And back to which wave is now starting? The more I think about it, the more I believe that EWP is just a humans way of trying to make sense of something too great to put in order for the human mind.

...
Actually, what you've said makes perfect sense. There was research conducted on EWP and professional chart analysts. When given market data and random data charts, they could guess correctly which one was which at 50 per cent ratio - which is normal for random guesses. As far as EWP goes - it really is subjective. to spot a trend, one does not need to know EWP. Furthermore, the numbering system - three waves up and two corrective waves - it doesn't always happen. The only thing about EWP in the market is that so many institutions/people use it, that it can and often does become a self-fulfilled prophecy, but even that doesn't always happen.
  • #27,323
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:50am Feb 8, 2013 8:50am
Quoting GnarlyPips
One thing I have thought of is if each participant in the markets. ie: central bank, interbanks, importers and exporters..., could be represented as a plant specie. Not all leaves will grow a phi amount away from each other, like mentioned in the video from the previous page, some grow directly across the stem at once at 90 degree angles. Identifying the type of plant and it's growth patterns may be possible to transfer the idea to the markets.

Also, you have to think of it as an ecosystem, as well, where the fittest eat the weakest. Lions go hungry...
I think you've said as much - bots - markets these days are mostly controlled by bots - bots owned by the central banks/corporations/hedge funds/etc. http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n10/donald-mackenzie/how-to-make-money-in-microseconds
  • #27,324
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:50am Feb 8, 2013 8:50am
Quoting maximmm
I suspect that DB is cheating on aud these days with another currency pair!!
Without your billion dollars, I wouldn't be able to cheat on AUD at anytime ......
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,325
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:53am Feb 8, 2013 8:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
Without your billion dollars, I wouldn't be able to cheat on AUD at anytime ......
Actually it's a trillion. I hope you are not accusing me of manipulating the market - because I do like EWP - though I do not always use it
  • #27,326
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:41am Feb 8, 2013 10:41am
Us dollar index futures chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AAA us dollar chart.JPG Size: 68 KB
  • #27,327
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:43am Feb 8, 2013 10:43am
Aussie dollar futures chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AAA AUD.JPG Size: 64 KB
  • #27,328
  • Feb 8, 2013 12:16pm Feb 8, 2013 12:16pm
Chik, this chart looks bearish IMO.

Quoting chiknthief
Us dollar index futures chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360341551
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,329
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:12pm Feb 8, 2013 2:12pm
Hello,

Found the conversation about Elliot Wave interesting and thought I might add to it. Usually use EW as a guide for overall direction of a currency pair and feel it's beneficial to understand in addition to price action. For example, an impulse wave in a 5 wave structure vs. a corrective 3 wave pattern. This is helpful to determine market direction. Also feel that actual price action gives a better indication because the markets are showing you the correct direction. By combining them with other technical analysis I think effectively leads to more successful trade set ups.

Good luck,
Caleb L.
Inside Forex Trading Gives You The Edge To Succeed.
  • #27,330
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:57pm Feb 8, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting InsideForexT
Hello,

Found the conversation about Elliot Wave interesting and thought I might add to it. Usually use EW as a guide for overall direction of a currency pair and feel it's beneficial to understand in addition to price action. For example, an impulse wave in a 5 wave structure vs. a corrective 3 wave pattern. This is helpful to determine market direction. Also feel that actual price action gives a better indication because the markets are showing you the correct direction. By combining them with other technical analysis I think effectively...
Aye - as I've mentioned before - it truly has become a self-fulfilled prophecy. At the same time, as I've previously mentioned, one does not need to know ewp in order to understand trends and how they operate. In ewp, each rising wave is bigger in size than the retraction - that's the same for normal trend theory. I think candle formations for weekly/monthly/daily charts are just as useful - and trend lines are very effective as well.

EWP is essentially a fancy name for a trend theory - though it has several interesting rules about wave and fibonacci numbers.
In the end, one does not need to know EWP to be a great trader - IMO.

Anyway, this week was an interesting one. We saw major signs of reversals in the jpy pairs. USDGBP played a major hand today, breaching the multi-year triangle and then making a strong comeback - as I've mentioned earlier, when looking at the long term chart formations, one requires a long term chart candle to close below a certain level in order for the signal to be validated - that hasn't happened with gbp, thus I suspect it may move higher still prior to reversal and eventual breach of the triangle. When that move down occurs - well, I expect GBP to fall hard and very fast.

Aud made yet another move lower this week - a fairly big move. I suspect that aud will continue to move lower in the coming weeks.
Likewise, I expect jpy pairs to make a significant move lower next week.
  • #27,331
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:37pm Feb 8, 2013 7:37pm
Daily near a bottom, H4 will either go up or retest bottom, then go long after retest of bottom. watch PA do not get in too early....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a daily 2 8 13.JPG Size: 180 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: a h4 bottom.JPG Size: 163 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,332
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:44pm Feb 8, 2013 7:44pm
The weekly PA is holding up quite well compaired to previous PA.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a weekly price.JPG Size: 184 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,333
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:11pm Feb 8, 2013 8:11pm
Daily 42 ADX turned up for further down, must watch H4 42 ADX to follow a change...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a a daily.JPG Size: 216 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,334
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:52pm Feb 8, 2013 8:52pm
Quoting chiknthief
So many waves and waves after more waves. How does one interpret? We've been range trading for a long long time building up more and more energy for a move that very well could be a massive one.

We've been stuck in a large trading range set for us back in 07/2011 - 10/2011. I count 14 waves since then (high) and now we're on wave 15 down. I bet there's a million differing interpretations of EWP on this but in a non trending market the waves are meaningless in my opinion. I think wave counts are more relevant in a trending market. We may very...
I will be the only one to try this.....I see no one dare attempt this first.... They would all look to be correction waves and no motive waves.....So ranging would be the correct answer......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360298364 (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1132451&d=1360298364)

I only see 2 waves in the weekly, the S stands for start of EWC, 1 ,2 and then start over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a 1 2 s ewc.jpg Size: 153 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,335
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:53pm Feb 8, 2013 8:53pm
from your weekly chart it looks like its waiting for to start a big move.
  • #27,336
  • Feb 8, 2013 8:56pm Feb 8, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
A leaf grows to maximize sunlight and minimize shade.
A trader trades to maximize profit and minimize loss.

They are doing the same thing, no? I think so.
Maximum space to grow like the Suburbs around a large city like Chicago........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #27,337
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:04pm Feb 8, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Yea but did he see those boobies I just posted in the gif image? Hehe

Ok on a serious note... I do think Elliot's principle is noteworthy and it's discovery is great. I just think it only makes sense in hindsight. When studying historical price on a chart it looks magnificent. You can see where to put all the big numbers and little letters. Now try doing it into the future. Different story.
I use the EWP to look into the uncharted waters to the right side of current charts. Labeling the past waves is to establish the reference points for the next moves.
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,338
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:13pm Feb 8, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I use the EWP to look into the uncharted waters to the right side of current charts. Labeling the past waves is to establish the reference points for the next moves.
That is the ultimate goal, isn't it my friend? That is the whole point of EWP. To predict the future moves.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #27,339
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:19pm Feb 8, 2013 10:19pm
It has been so bearish in this forum. I see the Aussie's next medium term moves the other way. Current chart indicates a turn around is imminent.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-020813-H1.JPG Size: 108 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #27,340
  • Feb 8, 2013 10:21pm Feb 8, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
That is the ultimate goal, isn't it my friend? That is the whole point of EWP. To predict the future moves.
I prefer to use projection instead of prediction. IMO prediction is a fortune teller's job. I don't have a crystal ball to do so.
daddybearforex. com
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