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USD/JPY Discussion

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...ion-in-usdjpy/
Hello all
last time I have tried this...

Quoting fibstalker
my up to date view on the Dollar Index....
the market pulled my nose. So here I am ready to be pulled again.

This is my updated daily view on the Dollar Index which can be relevant for a lot of pairs:

Attachment 1132932

The Dollar Index could now be on its way up as the 79.90 level of resistance did not hold. It could retest previous highs or even the top of the channel at the 81.70s. This would probably mean 1.3200 and 1.2900, respectively, for the Euro FX currency futures.

DX is currently trading a daily extension long which offered support today at the 80.10 area. The failure level is 80.00 and that barely held, but I will consider it holding as the DX with its low volume is not always technical.

As usual I have identified two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price currently trading in extensions long and could hit 80.40 (1st target) and then 80.60 (2nd target). Then it could continue higher in extensions trading the 80.60 support and next long entry, provided that price holds above the 80.45 level.

Scenario 2. After/if trades above the 80.70 level and if price then pierces 80.45 on the downside , price could then retrace all the way to the 80.10 area again before embarking into a move into 81 (1st target) and then 81.70 (2nd target), the top of the channel. At that point , and if we get there, I could get bearish again on the Dollar

Please let me know what you think and your related analysis as well.

Thank you
Have a great weekend.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
USD/JPY on a pullback


The price action in forex on Tuesday was more indicative of a 2-way street, principally on the yen, but also elsewhere. We saw some reversal a week ago on dollar-yen, but this was undermined by the rally into the end of last week (the euro being more the catalyst of the move). The failure to break above 90 on USDJPY and to make a sustained break of 120 on EURJPY has undermined the case for continued yen gains, at least in the short-term. But it could also be the fact that FX markets, more than others, are subject to bouts of consolidation and reversal. The move on USDJPY over the past 3 months is stretching the extremes of moves seen historically, being the biggest up-move of the past 10 years and only surpassed on the downside in late 2008. Having said that such bull moves are quite exaggerated and best entered on consolidations and we seem to be at one such level right now at 88.10.

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PRICE ACTION is the only real time indicator.
Yen weakness continues


The USDJPY has completed a deeper correction as was discussed in the trade signal on January 16. Currently this pair is going from strength to strength. While we were able to enter a position with amazing accuracy at 88.10, this pair never went lower than 88.05 thereby rejecting further correction lower by printing a pin bar signal at key resistance turned support. Prices have since shot up to 91.00 at the time of writing this. This pair still has a lot of potential to surge higher and that is making me want to scale in at the next consolidation.
PRICE ACTION is the only real time indicator.
Quoting MisterSpread
Regards to DaEdge, RobertFXm brinks and also to moneyhoolic, because they are the one's who were next to me since November and we traded USDJPY since $79 .

Below is a chart from 24.01.2012 with my target and the next is whit the target reached !


P.S: As a bonus i also placed a fundamental analysis on USDJPY that i made one night when i was going crazy in the office ))))
its nice to know im not the only one that dose that at work =D !!!!!
Quoting gautam0597
Yen weakness continues


The USDJPY has completed a deeper correction as was discussed in the trade signal on January 16. Currently this pair is going from strength to strength. While we were able to enter a position with amazing accuracy at 88.10, this pair never went lower than 88.05 thereby rejecting further correction...

now the japan is free to print (thanks to blessing of us treas dept) 94 looks like great long entry.

- wednesday's resistance would become new support in familiar stair-stepping pattern

if nothing changes (and it ever falls to 94 again), i'm in long at 94.00
Well said, anybody's guess where it'll go but it's north for now. I'd say safe to say strong support line for now at 93.40's but i would not be surprised 96-7 end of the week. Goiiiiinn long in any case, at least for now
Quoting 1candlepower
now the japan is free to print (thanks to blessing of us treas dept) 94 looks like great long entry.

- wednesday's resistance would become new support in familiar stair-stepping pattern

if nothing changes (and it ever falls to 94 again), i'm in long at 94.00
Quoting vette69
Well said, anybody's guess where it'll go but it's north for now. I'd say safe to say strong support line for now at 93.40's but i would not be surprised 96-7 end of the week. Goiiiiinn long in any case, at least for now

i'm starting to wonder if this thing will retrace to 94, much less 93.4x if it gets comfortable above the open (~93.31)

the usual technical considerations are out the window if some CB starts shoving ccy into the mkt hand over fist.

wondering if i should start scaling in long around 94.25 (if this is an EW impulse and we are finishing up a normally extended 4th wave, then 95.25 should be possible and is far enough away to justify a scaled entry)
It's a fast moving pair so retrace always there, main objective should be where this pair is heading, way i always trade high's and lows two week period to a month on each pair traded, far less risky this way + i'm in it to win it It''s all about available equity and sensible exposure. I always trade with two accounts long & short when needed,as this way only risk is my profit margin. There will always be a split opinion on pair performance forecast but usd/jpy is no ordinary cross for now & given the circumstances that is trading within. But as i said , it's all about available equity mate
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm starting to wonder if this thing will retrace to 94, much less 93.4x if it gets comfortable above the open (~93.31)

the usual technical considerations are out the window if some CB starts shoving ccy into the mkt hand over fist.

wondering if i should start scaling in around 94.25 (if this is an EW impulse and we are finishing up a normally extended 4th wave, then 95.25 should be possible and is far enough away to justify scaling into a moderately large position)
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm starting to wonder if this thing will retrace to 94, much less 93.4x if it gets comfortable above the open (~93.31)

the usual technical considerations are out the window if some CB starts shoving ccy into the mkt hand over fist.

wondering if i should start scaling in long around 94.25 (if this is an EW impulse and we are finishing up a normally extended 4th wave, then 95.25 should be possible and is far enough away to justify a scaled entry)
When the trend is as strong as this, not much technicals work - just keep buying dips on 4hr until it stops going north.
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm starting to wonder if this thing will retrace to 94, much less 93.4x if it gets comfortable above the open (~93.31)

the usual technical considerations are out the window if some CB starts shoving ccy into the mkt hand over fist.

wondering if i should start scaling in long around 94.25 (if this is an EW impulse and we are finishing up a normally extended 4th wave, then 95.25 should be possible and is far enough away to justify a scaled entry)
so far its only rhetoric. if they dont back it up with actions, it could go down

currently market is heavily long, in hope they actually carry out printing

but if actual result is not much then it will go down
Quoting Halba
so far its only rhetoric. if they dont back it up with actions, it could go down

currently market is heavily long, in hope they actually carry out printing

but if actual result is not much then it will go down


that is interesting comment... japan has long history of going thru the motions and jawboning, but achieving only transient weakness... they used to spike .uj violently and it always came back down. good opportunity for FOBOJ's (friends of the bank of japan) to grab a windfall ccy trading profit ...bad for weakening their ccy.

but, no more of that stuff! these guys really mean business now. so, in general i agree it's not done til it's done, but with the last election and the us stamp of approval: i think we're talkin about a diff japan here.
Quoting vette69
It's a fast moving pair so retrace always there, main objective should be where this pair is heading, way i always trade high's and lows two week period to a month on each pair traded, far less risky this way + i'm in it to win it It''s all about available equity and sensible exposure. I always trade with two accounts long & short when needed,as this way only risk is my profit margin. There will always be a split opinion on pair performance forecast but usd/jpy is no ordinary cross for now & given the circumstances that is trading within. But...

i don't think this would be a good situation to be in a short position even if you have plenty of reserve capital (unless you're in a country with freedom of choice and you can hedge... tho hedging here doesn't seem to have much utility -- assuming you're not way under water)

reason for that is the possible run up risk... if you buy Gartman's prediction that .uj can go to 150 in a few months (not unreasonable to me) then, you could wind up with a big chunk of money stuck for the next 5-10 years!!! i think there is at least a possibility

this (betting .uj will retrace a lot on its way up) is one fight i wouldn't want to get into
Hi, on this pair i'm long obviously, i trade two accounts 1. Primary, here i go with sensible exposure regardless short or long. 2. Secondary account i only use if for example ; significant retrace taking place. Just not to loose out on time and available equity i'd be shorting it as being the case with usd/jpy. I usually then go with 500k exposure as every pip counts. i've been trading like this & only risk i take is with profit margin. I trade in the UK & with GFT using their Dealbook 360 Platform & two legal trading acc in my name.
Quoting 1candlepower
i don't think this would be a good situation to be in a short position even if you have plenty of reserve capital (unless you're in a country with freedom of choice and you can hedge... tho hedging here doesn't seem to have much utility -- assuming you're not way under water)

reason for that is the possible run up risk... if you buy Gartman's prediction that .uj can go to 150 in a few months (not unreasonable to me) then, you could wind up with a big chunk of money stuck for the next 5-10 years!!! i think there is at least a possibility

this...
WHOA!

100 freaking pip drop < 1 min... this is the kind of situation where scaling in saves your sorry ass!

i lost almost nothing compared to what i would have lost if i'd opened a full position w/normal stop.


Nice..
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How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
Sweet,
Quoting 1candlepower
WHOA!

100 freaking pip drop < 1 min... this is the kind of situation where scaling in saves your sorry ass!

i lost almost nothing compared to what i would have lost if i'd opened a full position w/normal stop.
Quoting 1candlepower
WHOA!

100 freaking pip drop < 1 min... this is the kind of situation where scaling in saves your sorry ass!

i lost almost nothing compared to what i would have lost if i'd opened a full position w/normal stop.
I've never seen a good reason to scale in. Most of the time this behavior is an avoidance technique because a person can't handle loss even if they say they can.
Quoting Kanzler
I've never seen a good reason to scale in. Most of the time this behavior is an avoidance technique because a person can't handle loss even if they say they can.
I agree. If you scale in you lose valuable pips and you miss good action. on another note im wondering how far this will retrace..... if this is just a normal reflex as shown below. what is your guys take on things? atm im long and not sure if i should be looking for a exit.
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http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360688018


Inserted Video




Quoting iqyu5an
http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...rab-pic500.jpg
Mumpung sakura murah banget...............masih di discount terus.......tiap minggu
ada penampakan kepiting di taman sakura....... nangkepnya pake peralatan tradisional dan mata telanjang aja .... biar gak pusing. soale qlo pake peralatan import kaga ngerti baca buku manual nya niyyyyyyyyyyyyy
"While the cherry really cheap discount ............... still continues ....... every week
there is sightings of crabs in the park sakura ....... get them using traditional tools and wrote the naked eye .... "

Quoting iqyu5an
targetting 85-88 ? with monthly pivot ( +/- 89 ) as first pit stop ?

qyu5an : uj : 84-88-89 ( prev strong support ) ?
12-02-2013 11:43:34
iqyu5an : uj now at 94.xx
12-02-2013 11:44:04
iqyu5an : multiple bearish pattern : bat, deep crab and abcd
12-02-2013 11:45:22
iqyu5an : overshoot ( >> 1.61 of hi low q4 2012 )
12-02-2013 11:46:54
iqyu5an : divergence in weekly using cci standard setting
12-02-2013 11:47:29
iqyu5an : bullish shark is projected @ monthly pivot +/- 89...possible bounced to +/- 92
12-02-2013 11:49:23qyu5an : uj : 84-88-89...

Quoting iqyu5an
over shooting creates divergence in bigger TF. good job. and provides nice risk reward ratio
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