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Elliott wave outlook

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  • #7,501
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:36am Feb 8, 2013 2:36am
http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...1h08-02-13.png

The top red TL is from the daily. This was (as has been said a thousand times a 5th wave. (either the 5th of the 3rd, or poss 5th overall), break it down into 5 waves.
Wave 3 was 100% of wave 1,
Wave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3
Wave 5 retests top TL at approx its 38.2% ext.

I also said we had breached an important TL yesterday (green line), look how we backtested it overnight.

Now short;
Wave 3 was 161.8% of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3
Wave 5 has reached the 61.8% ext.

Caution req'd in case it extends.

Now tell me what happens when we have completed a 5w cycle?
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  • #7,502
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:44am Feb 8, 2013 2:44am
Quoting The Cableguy
http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...1h08-02-13.png

The top red TL is from the daily. This was (as has been said a thousand times a 5th wave. (either the 5th of the 3rd, or poss 5th overall), break it down into 5 waves.
Wave 3 was 100% of wave 1,
Wave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3
Wave 5 retests top TL at approx its 38.2% ext.

I also said we had breached an important TL yesterday (green line), look how we backtested it overnight.

Now short;
Wave 3 was 161.8% of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3
Wave 5 has reached the...

i would say we have an abc correction?
  • #7,503
  • Feb 8, 2013 2:53am Feb 8, 2013 2:53am
Quoting The Cableguy
Caution req'd in case it extends.

Now tell me what happens when we have completed a 5w cycle?
Thanks for sharing the chart. Fibs clock well to confirm this as a 5 wave down.

I think a reasonable target is 1.2242 as you have it there. There is a Fib projection of wave 3 at 1.2260, so this range is where I would look to take profit.

What happens when 5w down are in? I would stick a 1/A label on there
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  • #7,504
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:03am Feb 8, 2013 3:03am
Exactly! We will now correct back in 3 w, (but of course we do not know whether this will be zigzag/flat or irregular yet!)

The important thing was that the 5w short breached the prior 4th wave low.
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  • #7,505
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:17am Feb 8, 2013 3:17am
Quoting The Cableguy
Exactly! We will now correct back in 3 w, (but of course we do not know whether this will be zigzag/flat or irregular yet!)

The important thing was that the 5w short breached the prior 4th wave low.
Slight concern at the MACD diversion on that action. The 3rd subwave of wave 3 typically puts in a max MACD value for an impulse - perhaps we only completed wave 3 now (red label 3), hence the deep retracement? Else 1-2 1-2 perhaps?

(Current wave up looks impulsive in a 1min chart)

Edit: Apologies, everything above is me thinking out loud and I totally overlooked that 5w are in. This fits with MACD as shown and now we have, of course, a-b-c up (to retrace 5w down to 1.2353)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_8Feb2013.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #7,506
  • Feb 8, 2013 3:38am Feb 8, 2013 3:38am
As per my previous edit: seems 5 waves are in. A zigzag will get us to 61.8% @ 1.2610. Anything else... well let's see what we get

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY2_8Feb2013.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #7,507
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:22am Feb 8, 2013 4:22am
reason for overnight drop and this is strike two on the Abe plan....one more and game over....lol
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0B84SR20130208
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #7,508
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:45am Feb 8, 2013 4:45am
OK guys, euro yen complete. Diagonal down. Ideal correction 125.55, but the possible flat to 127.00 then 117. also Euro dollar is done and the first target is 1.3180. See you later
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,509
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:47am Feb 8, 2013 4:47am
I remember to tell xfatboi, I am in 127.60 B/E stop and the market made another slighly high I hope the FLAT!!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,510
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:48am Feb 8, 2013 4:48am
Quoting Luis Carlos
OK guys, euro yen complete. Diagonal down. Ideal correction 125.55, but the possible flat to 127.00 then 117. also Euro dollar is done and the first target is 1.3180. See you later
Cheers Luis!!!
Wait, or you will be slaughtered!
  • #7,511
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:48am Feb 8, 2013 4:48am
S&P500

Luis has been showing a critical chart of how the S&P is heading for 1525 by Fib projection of its HHs.

EWI have been expecting a turn down for at least a year... now they also are calling for a top at 1525.

I put on my Fibonacci hat and here is my version of how it can happen:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX_8Feb2013.png Size: 121 KB
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  • #7,512
  • Feb 8, 2013 4:50am Feb 8, 2013 4:50am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post6428740

What do you think about the count? Better than the last or still wrong?
just do it
  • #7,513
  • Feb 8, 2013 6:17am Feb 8, 2013 6:17am
Hello

Whats happening

mixed up waves

124 now

is up 127 first

then 117
  • #7,514
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:16am Feb 8, 2013 7:16am
EJ seems to be making some kind of flat - it could be running or expanded as shown on the chart.

Selling pressure is causing this, but the down force could be losing steam as shown by the divergence on the MACD and RSI

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY3_8Feb2013.png Size: 41 KB
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  • #7,515
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:20am Feb 8, 2013 7:20am
Gonna have to revert back to my original plan for Cable, as per lower prediction (irreg B);

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...h31-01-13a.png

PA has become a real bitch to follow though, so only have Fib's of A to go on, the 123.6% lines up with an overall retracement fib, but it has a free reign to go way higher yet, if it wants and might coincide with thinking that the FTSE is about to steam south soon...

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...2h08-02-13.png
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  • #7,516
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:23am Feb 8, 2013 7:23am
Quote

Now tell me what happens when we have completed a 5w cycle?

Retracement in three waves and then more down

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #7,517
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:25am Feb 8, 2013 7:25am
Yep, i'd also be inclined to label this an irregular, as if it cant wait to get lower... wont be expecting a huge C wave...
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  • #7,518
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:30am Feb 8, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Olu
Retracement in three waves and then more down

Olu
I like that: "more down"

My wife sometimes looks at my trading screen and when she sees some downtrends she asks: "happy finished?"
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  • #7,519
  • Feb 8, 2013 7:37am Feb 8, 2013 7:37am
Quoting The Cableguy
Yep, i'd also be inclined to label this an irregular, as if it cant wait to get lower... wont be expecting a huge C wave...
I think irregular also, but where will b end? seems 123.40 is the "demand zone" (there, I've always wanted to say that)
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  • #7,520
  • Edited 8:39am Feb 8, 2013 8:22am | Edited 8:39am
Quoting venzen
I think irregular also, but where will b end? seems 123.40 is the "demand zone" (there, I've always wanted to say that)
EJ

Seems a zigzag is unfolding up from 123.40. Assuming wave A (124.12 - 123.40 = 62 pips) = wave C we have a rough target of 124.50 (23.6% of entire 5w) for the end of the correction. Lets see...

Edit: I'm wrong - wave C cannot be a zigzag (it must be 5) so either the current PA is an impulse or we are in line for a compound correction
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