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  • #7,141
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:11am Feb 5, 2013 3:11am
Would like to hear Infinitus view on this. For me, the break of 13,490 peak in Mar last year was poss significant in this (in confirming the last low was indeed significant. The series of LL's/LH's of last drop is certainly broken)...
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  • #7,142
  • Edited 3:33am Feb 5, 2013 3:32am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting The Cableguy
Yeh, this is just a quick idea without having put too much thought into it, there is a lack of historical data due to the relative infancy of the currency, however, a HL to be followed by a HH would be quite a sensible conclusion;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...uw05-02-13.png
I guess HH following HL makes sense but looking at the labels (and you mention they're just draft) a move to 1.50 (and as wave C) would require an impulsive advance. Does this fit with the current WXY labeling? Wave W (starting Jan 2013) is definitely 3 waves up. I just don't know how else to look at that AB structure in early January. (I see that same structure in a lot of charts after the 08/09 crash, btw). So, considering the current corrective advance: possibly another X and then 5 waves to 1.50. Quite a mindbender in terms of implications for fundamentals - but hey - the charts don't lie
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,143
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:41am Feb 5, 2013 3:41am
Quoting The Cableguy
Would like to hear Infinitus view on this. For me, the break of 13,490 peak in Mar last year was poss significant in this (in confirming the last low was indeed significant. The series of LL's/LH's of last drop is certainly broken)...

Hi Cableguy,

well, the question is not easily answered.


It is because of the dubious character of some impulse, which also can be counted as zigzags.



Your count may unfold, it is valid so far.

I have another count (in fact I have actually more than one count).


From a sentiment point of view we are at least ripe for a bigger pullback.


Here are some of my long time charts:

Triangle count:

this is my main count, since I think that it makes sentiment wise and economic sense

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot triangle.jpg Size: 89 KB



ABC-count

valid, but we would now need a deeper retrace to work of the EUR bullishness

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot ABC.jpg Size: 106 KB



ABC count,

where we are now in wave C down. Wave 1 can be counted as LD. But this LD is not so nice to count, so I feel it is invalid

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot ABC LD.jpg Size: 109 KB




Triangle count 2

may be valid, but my feeling is not so good about it. We would need now the thrust out of the triangle, but the move since the low at 20x looks more corrective than impulsive

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot ABC Triangle 2.jpg Size: 106 KB




And here is the sentiment chart


From Thursday last week to yesterday the sentiment index rose 1 point, although we had this steep drop - complacency?



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot sentiment.jpg Size: 127 KB
  • #7,144
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:42am Feb 5, 2013 3:42am
Quoting The Cableguy
Would like to hear Infinitus view on this. For me, the break of 13,490 peak in Mar last year was poss significant in this (in confirming the last low was indeed significant. The series of LL's/LH's of last drop is certainly broken)...
Will be interesting to hear what he has to say.

The following chart is not my own (I quickly grabbed it from the web). It shows more history than Advanced Charts provides and tells me that the EURUSD has been in corrective mode since inception and with a single impulse (2001-2008) and then a combination correction (as you also labeled) since.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MONTHLY.jpg Size: 68 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,145
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:43am Feb 5, 2013 3:43am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Cableguy,

well, the question is not easily answered.


It is because of the dubious character of some impulse, which also can be counted as zigzags.



Your count may unfold, it is valid so far.

I have another count (in fact I have actually more than one count).


From a sentiment point of view we are at least ripe for a bigger pullback.


Here are some of my long time charts:

Triangle count:

this is my main count, since I think that it makes sentiment wise and...


sorry, the yellow letters on the chart are bad to read
  • #7,146
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:51am Feb 5, 2013 3:51am
Thanks guys, interesting isn't it?! Totally agree and no way i would try to label this current upswing as impulsive, (as all my prev charts have shown), but that (potential) HL is a real ballache to say the least...
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  • #7,147
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:03am Feb 5, 2013 4:03am
Thanks Infinitus for the charts and explanation.

My own feeling in this (and I'm speculating wildly) is that the European Union project may fail and break apart and with time the Euro may fall out of use. And decades down the line Elliotticians will look at the chart and and see a correction at the start and an optimistic impulse in the middle and then some undefinable triangle at the end and ponder human endevour.

We, on the other hand, are in the thick of a market that is becoming more and more volatile and I think the Euro pairs will swing wildly between W and Z in the months to come!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,148
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:16am Feb 5, 2013 4:16am
Have to confess, i'm not really a swinger! )

This following chart would sum up my idea of a great trade and an easy way to make money;

Identify a trend (HH's/HL's etc), wait for a pullback.
Let's assume trend is up. Go down the timescale to determine a,b&c, using EW & Fibs, you should be able to determine end of 'C'.
Now look for minor 5w up/3w back down.
Go long at end of this minor abc, it will often retest a TL. Stop is a pip (plus spread) below prior larger 'C'. If it sounds complicated, its not, here's a Cable chart from yesterday;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...2m04-02-13.png

Fibs and EW channels can be used to dictate likely targets, but this was a 10 pip risk and easy 30+ pip gain. That's 1:3 R:R. Its scaleable, but for anyone who says, 'big deal, its only 30 pips', is misunderstanding the idea. Pips are not important, percentages are.
If i had a 200 pip target on an hourly set-up, my risk would still have been the same, therefore why wait for hourly/daily set-ups, when they happen all the time on the 5min? If traded as a 1% risk, you would have claimed 3% gain. A max 3% risk would have netted 9% etc...
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  • #7,149
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:58am Feb 5, 2013 4:58am
Ref above, if you can absolutely identify the end of 'C' (in this case it was not only 100% of 'A', but its own 5th hit its 61.8% projection), you can go long at that level with a fairly tight stop, (just in case of a misread and extending wave). The best endings are diagonals, find one of them that has a clear abcde structure together with hitting both its own 61.8% level plus the whole of C having a common fib relationship to A and its nailed on for a reverse...
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #7,150
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:04am Feb 5, 2013 5:04am
That, Cableguy, is the way to trade. Provided your count is correct (and assuming you have sized yourself according to your capital and risk) you cannot go wrong. If you do stop-out in this trade methodology then it means: 1) you took a calculated risk and it failed, or 2) your count was wrong. But no sweat! update your count and wait for the next high-quality opportunity
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,151
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:10am Feb 5, 2013 5:10am
Quoting venzen
That, Cableguy, is the way to trade. Provided your count is correct (and assuming you have sized yourself according to your capital and risk) you cannot go wrong. If you do stop-out in this trade methodology then it means: 1) you took a calculated risk and it failed, or 2) your count was wrong. But no sweat! update your count and wait for the next high-quality opportunity

Exactly! Not only that, but even if it was simply an abc of a larger 'A', you will soon be in a 'B' wave with a strong possibility of safely getting your stop to BE. If you then add an overall EW plan to the theory, it is possible to use this method to get a great entry into a longer move and use the 10MA as a trailing stop, thus you managed to get a high stake trade (with your 1/2/3% original risk), but now look to ride possibly 10 times the risk, especially if you can use this method on an abc wave 2 pullback and gain entry into a 3rd wave...
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  • #7,152
  • Edited 5:36am Feb 5, 2013 5:22am | Edited 5:36am
Using the first method, of waiting for a clear 5w/3w after a potential high/low, in this instance clearly didn't work. The EJ sprinted off some 200 pips before anything looking likely to be a corrective move! I'm still playing around with which method to use, as you simply don't know which will suit. I'm thinking the discipline required is immense to only take a trade when more than one factor lines up. But even having a couple of stop outs before having a good run, this morning would see a 20 pip risk bag a 160 pip gain. I'm also experimenting with using the 10ma as a support. giving it 20 pips room to move on the hourly recently has been exceptional.

MA crossovers have always had a weakness, great for the big move and then give it all back in corrective chop... but if you can use EW to only use it for 3rd waves, (or impulse moves), it can be deadly...

First this morning on the 5min;

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...5m05-02-13.png
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  • #7,153
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:42am Feb 5, 2013 5:42am
Update AUD/USD 4H



Quoting dopodopo
My view on h4 chart

http://i1321.photobucket.com/albums/...psbe9a863d.gif






http://i1321.photobucket.com/albums/...pscf645544.gif
  • #7,154
  • Feb 5, 2013 5:53am Feb 5, 2013 5:53am
Quoting The Cableguy
Unless this morphs into a diagonal, the 38.2% for 5th (of C) was it, shame it didn't hit the channel line though. looks like a minor 5w advance already taken out end of prior 4th (of lesser degree);
EJ 15m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 15m.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #7,155
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:02am Feb 5, 2013 6:02am
GM all, Nice headache I got today. Very nice move at euro yen, euro dollar I believe is done. With ECB this week maybe a cut the correction will begin. See you later
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13f041.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 13feb04.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 13f05.png Size: 38 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,156
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:19am Feb 5, 2013 6:19am
Quoting The Cableguy
Using the first method, of waiting for a clear 5w/3w after a potential high/low, in this instance clearly didn't work. The EJ sprinted off some 200 pips before anything looking likely to be a corrective move! I'm still playing around with which method to use, as you simply don't know which will suit. I'm thinking the discipline required is immense to only take a trade when more than one factor lines up. But even having a couple of stop outs before having a good run, this morning would see a 20 pip risk bag a 160 pip gain. I'm also experimenting...
Yes, timing the entry is the trick. We try our best to nail the point where correction turns into a longer turn impulsive trend. For this purpose EW and Fib analysis is really the best toolset I know, as all of us here must agree (with some self-satisfied pride perhaps ;P ). Pinpointing the price level where correction and impulse exchange the driver's seat can be done - you and other Fib analysts in this forum have show this again and again. But this does not work every time and so we have an error factor (misread/miscalculation/extension) which we can address by the same method you described: To confirm that the new wave is an impulse, I watch a 1min chart for a 5w/3w combination to manifest and thereby confirm its structure. If necessary, switch to 30secs TF to see definition of the subwaves. Yes, the initial wave of a correction can also be a 5w impulse (in the case of a 5-3-5 zigzag), but by determining that you indeed have 5w/3w you have increased your chances of trading an impulse.

Some EW traders wait for wave 2 to unfold and price to exceed wave 2's starting point (wave 1 end point) before opening a position to ride wave 3. This is a conservative but high-probability method advocated by EWI. The alternative is to not wait for confirmation of the new trend and repeatedly stop-out until trade goes your way -> wasteful and demoralizing.

Besides the EW and Fib analysis, our common indicator/oscillator toolset of MACD, RSI and Stochastics also serve as confirmation of trend change by virtue of diverting from price action as trend change draws nearer.

The EJ bounce this morning was fast and furious and waiting for 5w/3w as you say, would have missed most of it. That is where divergence can often help us anticipate the moment of change. The chart below shows the indicator divergence with red lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ_divergence_2013-02-05 19:17:49.png Size: 45 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,157
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:30am Feb 5, 2013 6:30am
Quoting venzen
Yes, timing the entry is the trick. We try our best to nail the point where correction turns into a longer turn impulsive trend. For this purpose EW and Fib analysis is really the best toolset I know, as all of us here must agree (with some self-satisfied pride perhaps ;P ). Pinpointing the price level where correction and impulse exchange the driver's seat can be done - you and other Fib analysts in this forum have show this again and again. But this does not work every time and so we have an error factor (misread/miscalculation/extension) which...

A very good summary, the problem with the 'exceeding wave 2 start' approach (otherwise known as a 123 reversal), is that if you have your count wrong, you will often enter into the latter part of a 'C' wave of a counter corrective move itself... Ie a 4th wave of a larger 'C' instead of what you believe to be a 3rd wave of a fresh impulse...
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  • #7,158
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:30am Feb 5, 2013 6:30am
Quoting venzen
Yes, timing the entry is the trick. We try our best to nail the point where correction turns into a longer turn impulsive trend. For this purpose EW and Fib analysis is really the best toolset I know, as all of us here must agree (with some self-satisfied pride perhaps ;P ). Pinpointing the price level where correction and impulse exchange the driver's seat can be done - you and other Fib analysts in this forum have show this again and again. But this does not work every time and so we have an error factor (misread/miscalculation/extension) which...
True
  • #7,159
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:49am Feb 5, 2013 6:49am
Quoting Luis Carlos
GM all, Nice headache I got today. Very nice move at euro yen, euro dollar I believe is done. With ECB this week maybe a cut the correction will begin. See you later
how big of a correction are you looking for?
  • #7,160
  • Feb 5, 2013 6:51am Feb 5, 2013 6:51am
Quoting dopodopo
time to short Eu 13534
Hi D

I was thinking to go short from 3570 looking for 3350 area. I took the reversal long from 3477-3520. I believe that some technical damage was done to the euro by such a deep fall from the high. It was impulsive. So I am looking for a retracement to the said sell zone. However looking at the charts now it appears price is going without me.

please can we get a retracement upwards
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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