EurAnalysis | Page 3281 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #65,601
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:07pm Feb 4, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I kept the following post made by FibStalker last week as I completely agree with it.
[b][i]
"News is relevant only when it contributes to break sequences of measured moves induced by Program Trading on the larger time frames, i.e. daily and weekly. But very rarely news is capable of doing that: what can really change market direction is huge and coordinated participation from smart money and/or central banks. For instance, the S&P500 was turned higher twice in the last 3 years: the first time in March 2009 and the second time in May-July 2011...
Yeah, it was a great discussion!

Question:

Would Goldsmans fall into the 'Smart Money' or only CB's..etc?

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/marke...ast-01-02-2013
  • #65,602
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:10pm Feb 4, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting chodd22
Yeah, it was a great discussion!

Question:

Would Goldsmans fall into the 'Smart Money' or only CB's..etc?

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/marke...ast-01-02-2013
Goldman would probably fall under Smart Money but I don't buy into rumors passed around online in regards to positions held/closed by major financial institutions. This link even says information is UNCONFIRMED...
  • #65,603
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:16pm Feb 4, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Goldman would probably fall under Smart Money but I don't buy into rumors passed around online in regards to positions held/closed by major financial institutions. This link even says information is UNCONFIRMED...
Good point...

Rumors have moved markets before though. Seem to remember the news came out Goldmans target was 1.37 was chatted as a rumor as well for a bit.

Thats the bummer with being on the retail side...it all seems like rumors until its not eh!

Good luck out there mate! Lets get some green either way!
  • #65,604
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:18pm Feb 4, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting chodd22
Good point...

Rumors have moved markets before though. Seem to remember the news came out Goldmans target was 1.37 was chatted as a rumor as well for a bit.

Thats the bummer with being on the retail side...it all seems like rumors until its not eh!

Good luck out there mate! Lets get some green either way!
Same to you Chodd!
  • #65,605
  • Feb 4, 2013 10:59pm Feb 4, 2013 10:59pm
Possible buyer attraction zone 1.3460 area, if it holds during uk session. Another bearish day could lead 1.3380 max.
  • #65,606
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:03pm Feb 4, 2013 11:03pm
Just took a long position at 1.3490 to catch a retrace. Reasons:

- RSI shows 22 on H4 and 25 on H1 (Oversold)
- Resistance at 3480 from last years high and candlesticks (Green line)
- Hitting rising trend line (light blue)
- hitting near 100 sma on H4 (blue)
- a fib 50% retrace from 3263-3711 (red dash)

Anyone think this is a crazy idea?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-02-04 at 10.47.26 PM.png Size: 96 KB
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #65,607
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:14pm Feb 4, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Just took a long position at 1.3490 to catch a retrace. Reasons:

- RSI shows 22 on H4 and 25 on H1 (Oversold)
- Resistance at 3480 from last years high and candlesticks (Green line)
- Hitting rising trend line (light blue)
- hitting near 100 sma on H4 (blue)
- a fib 50% retrace from 3263-3711 (red dash)

Anyone think this is a crazy idea?
Attachment
I think this is an excellent spot to go Long.

What is your target?
  • #65,608
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:23pm Feb 4, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I think this is an excellent spot to go Long.

What is your target?
First resistance is ~3540 and a Fib line from 3711-3485 has the 38.2% retrace at 3570. So my initial target is just below 3540 (40-45pips). I'll take partial profit or just move my stop up and see if I get a better retrace, maybe even a retest of the high.

I am I admit not very good at picking a target, just a spot where I see high probability of a bounce/market response. Any suggestions? Thanks and good luck
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #65,609
  • Feb 4, 2013 11:25pm Feb 4, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
First resistance is ~3540 and a Fib line from 3711-3485 has the 38.2% retrace at 3570. So my initial target is just below 3540 (40-45pips). I'll take partial profit or just move my stop up and see if I get a better retrace, maybe even a retest of the high.

I am I admit not very good at picking a target, just a spot where I see high probability of a bounce/market response. Any suggestions? Thanks and good luck
Looks good to me, price could possibly make new highs later this week, who knows.

But you should be safe with your target
  • #65,610
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:17am Feb 5, 2013 12:17am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Just took a long position at 1.3490 to catch a retrace. Reasons:

- RSI shows 22 on H4 and 25 on H1 (Oversold)
- Resistance at 3480 from last years high and candlesticks (Green line)
- Hitting rising trend line (light blue)
- hitting near 100 sma on H4 (blue)
- a fib 50% retrace from 3263-3711 (red dash)

Anyone think this is a crazy idea?
Attachment
I don't think it's a crazy idea at all. I think it offers an excellent RR. Your choice of entry is also supported by the other side of the coin.

The USDX is now testing the broken rising trend line support as resistance with the RSI testing the 50 level.
As such, I'm right there with you. Good luck.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,611
  • Feb 5, 2013 12:36am Feb 5, 2013 12:36am
Hi guys,

I've been bullish for a while and not posting because nothing has changed in my analysis, FED is still out easing the ECB so the EURO continues to rally. For me, about 1.42 is the maximum target for EUR/USD, however I expect that quite soon the ECB will act to begin easing again, possibly in the form of a rate cut (negative deposit rate), or unconventional easing, mostly due to the high exchange rate affecting export recovery.

Risk for me now is that the easy rally period is mostly over, so while 1.42 is possible, I'm expecting ECB to step in in some way around 1.4 or just before.

Therefore I am now neutral (from bullish), turning to bearish if the ECB announces easing that can rival the fed.

Good luck.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #65,612
  • Feb 5, 2013 1:43am Feb 5, 2013 1:43am
My hourly chart updated - the PVP zone around 1.3548 didn't hold and now we are close to the next one ~ 100 pips lower. I've just taken a small buy, only looking for a few pips during Frankies Hour.

My daily chart is an update from a post a few week's ago - it proved rather accurate

PS closed that buy for a few
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: feb 5 € hrly 0730 gmt.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: feb 5 € dly.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,613
  • Feb 5, 2013 2:49am Feb 5, 2013 2:49am
Quoting rekon67
Possible buyer attraction zone 1.3460 area, if it holds during uk session. Another bearish day could lead 1.3380 max.
Buyers interest exactly at the zone.
  • #65,614
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:17am Feb 5, 2013 3:17am
Good Morning traders,
this is my up to date view for the EUR/USD (Euro FX futures) on the 4-hour chart. As usual I am interested to your comments:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360055101

By trading above the 1.3517 level the Fibonacci Stalking technique confirmed support in the 1.3450-60 area. Price traded a low at 1.3462. In the 1.3450-60 there is long interest of professional and program trading.

I can see two scenarios at the moment:

Scenario 1. Price could continue straight higher from here. The target for the swing that could have just started is at 1.3850 (firm price!). However a sideways action on the smaller timeframes is also possible till wednesday afternoon in preparation for the ECB meeting.

Scenario 2. Price comes back to test the entry area at 1.3460 and could even pierce this area bringing price into the 1.3440 level. I see participation on the long side at these levels.

Keep in mind that the ECB meeting will come AFTER a long setup and the news, in this case, are likely to push and help the long setup.

I consider it particularly dangerous holding shorts at this stage but from what I read a lot of people think that yesterday's action is due to the bear resuming. In my honest opinion, that was only profit taking and program trading pushing price into the next long setup.

As usually I am very interested to your comments.

Trade safe and have a great day
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,615
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:19am Feb 5, 2013 3:19am
Generally good services PMI data from various EZ countries plus a slight fall in the Italian & Spanish bonds have helped this fast move. More data at 10 am, so I'm hopeful that the 3550 area / 50% retrace will get hit.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: feb 5 € 5m 0910 gmt.gif Size: 23 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,616
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:30am Feb 5, 2013 3:30am
This is the info I could never post on Friday because my account was suspended. Not arguing here as my account was suspended for proper reasons (me breaking rule #3) but it is a pity because it was a very good call and money could be made out of it. Luckily some people could look at this though. The comments are reported in inverted commas.

" (posted last Friday 1/2/2013)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E_4-hour_chart_20130201.png Size: 69 KB



Price has reached the target of the B2 leg (in my intermediate plan for the Euro) and I anticipate some sort of retracement lower into the 1.3445 area. Probably is not a matter of when but how. Of course any outcome is possible and price may never retrace to the indicated level.
Below the 1.3625 important threshold level the ‘M-for-Murder’ pattern is on and we are going to get some sort of retracement. In this case I have identified two potential scenarios (refer to the above picture):

Scenario 1. Price moves below 1.3625 and Euro keeps selling. We could see a bounce at the 20-bar SMA and then a lower high in the 1.3610 area and then a continuation lower into the 1.3445 area.

Scenario 2. Price moves below 1.3625 and confirms the ‘M-for-Murder’ pattern. It then rallies all the way to the 1.3700 area or slightly above and then sells off into 1.3445 area in 2-3 days.


Notice that both scenarios could (should) find support at the 1.3445 area where I would be interested in new swing longs into 1.3850.
Please let me have your comments and views."
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,617
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:40am Feb 5, 2013 3:40am
Hey FibStalker,

I have been enjoying your posts and I especially like your clean charts! Would you mind telling me which program / software you use to edit your charts?

Thank you in advance!
  • #65,618
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:54am Feb 5, 2013 3:54am
Hi Fibstalker - I too find your charts and analysis interesting. However, it would be helpful if you could expand your charts a little to show the levels where you have placed your fibs and also so that the actual levels on the left are not obscured by the chart itself as in post #65,614
Regards
Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,619
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:56am Feb 5, 2013 3:56am
Quoting fibstalker
.... my account was suspended for proper reasons (me breaking rule #3) but it is a pity because it was a very good call and money could be made out of it. Luckily some people could look at this though.....
Well you are doing a very good job promoting your blog ranking ...you are not only all over FF but all over the net ..... .... I hope you are a real trader and not a internet marketer as we have plenty of them around....

Quote
Scenario 1. Price moves below 1.3625 and Euro keeps selling. We could see a bounce at the 20-bar SMA and then a lower high in the 1.3610 area and then a continuation lower into the 1.3445 area.

Scenario 2. Price moves below 1.3625 and confirms the ‘M-for-Murder’ pattern. It then rallies all the way to the 1.3700 area or slightly above and then sells off into 1.3445 area in 2-3 days.

In simpler words, you are saying that price can hold support or break support ....So which one is your poison?

Quote
Please let me have your comments and views."

Nice charts, nice analysis, now what do you mean about program trading?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #65,620
  • Feb 5, 2013 4:27am Feb 5, 2013 4:27am
Hello Sir,
first of all thanks a lot for you vouch. I am flattened. I promise I will make good use of that privilege.

As per you question I use TradeStation for charts and then edit them with Jing which is free.

Again,thanks for your support.

Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey FibStalker,

I have been enjoying your posts and I especially like your clean charts! Would you mind telling me which program / software you use to edit your charts?

Thank you in advance!
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
19 traders viewing now