USD/CAD

Some new people say they are here to learn.
To those who think that playing the news is smart I ask to read this post from my blog.

"Do you think facts and 'Truth' (i.e. market news) make money?"

Read this and think again: http://wp.me/p2oF7p-pr

My opinion, of course, but found that a few successful traders agree with that article.

Let me know your thoughts...

Reloaded and long at 1.00181

- And finally, target reached and breached.

Added another long at .99821 - my GBP/NZD is dying

RD in the direction of the trend. Bullish

Good morning traders,

as this can be relevant to trading the USD/CAD pair, I am sharing my up to date view on the Dollar Index (daily chart below is from yesterday's mid-week update):

The 79.90 area in the Dollar Index looks strong resistance at the moment and it's very possible it will be able to contain higher price. The sequence of measured moves higher failed on the 4-hour timeframe. The short setup at 79.90 has targets at 78.50 (1st) and then 77.70 (2nd) helping price into that larger weekly setup's target at 77.50s, which started with the resistance at the 81.60s, in November.

These are the two updated scenarios I see going forward (refer to the picture below):

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360226968

Scenario 1. Price could start a move lower into the first target at the 78.50 area. It could then continue into the next area of target at 77.70 and into 77.60, after a brief profit taking relief move higher (this is the higher probability scenario).

Scenario 2. After trading down into the 78.50 first area of target price could reverse and start trading higher. This scenario seems less probable at this stage.

Of course we still need further confirmation that the Dollar Index has actually topped in this move. This would coincide with renewed, anticipated strength in the Euro-Dollar cross. Currently the bears are in control of the 15min timeframe and the confirmation of the targets mentioned above and the resistance level would come with price below 79.30. This could take a day or two.

Let me know your thoughts? ty

Have a great day.

Still long - This have change - need some support from the GBP

Hello all
last time I have tried this...

the market pulled my nose. So here I am ready to be pulled again.

This is my updated daily view on the Dollar Index which can be relevant for a lot of pairs:

Attachment

The Dollar Index could now be on its way up as the 79.90 level of resistance did not hold. It could retest previous highs or even the top of the channel at the 81.70s. This would probably mean 1.3200 and 1.2900, respectively, for the Euro FX currency futures.

DX is currently trading a daily extension long which offered support today at the 80.10 area. The failure level is 80.00 and that barely held, but I will consider it holding as the DX with its low volume is not always technical.

As usual I have identified two scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price currently trading in extensions long and could hit 80.40 (1st target) and then 80.60 (2nd target). Then it could continue higher in extensions trading the 80.60 support and next long entry, provided that price holds above the 80.45 level.

Scenario 2. After/if trades above the 80.70 level and if price then pierces 80.45 on the downside , price could then retrace all the way to the 80.10 area again before embarking into a move into 81 (1st target) and then 81.70 (2nd target), the top of the channel. At that point , and if we get there, I could get bearish again on the Dollar

Please let me know what you think and your related analysis as well.

Thank you
Have a great weekend.

Really nice looking setup on the short term loonie charts. We have a text book break out setup on the 5m charts.

TOP of range
MmR1 - Monthly middle resistance 1
WmR1 - weekly middle resistance 1

BOTTOM of range
WPV - Weekly pivot


Doing a 1:1 ratio tp/sl of 20 pips gonna set the stops maybe just a hair further at 25 pips loss. Trend is up so favoring longs but will gladly take the short if it looks good.


Entry and TP are marked with the red price quotes

Best of luck this week everyone!

Pair is looking a bit soggy. Gonna go ahead and close at + 6pips. Possibly try to re-enter later when there is more volitility.

Good chance to reverse soon I think

A quick update on the USD/CAD because I think it could have already started an interesting move lower. But there is still the possibility to participate in it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360683558

The 1.0030-40 area is a significant resistance area for the USD/CAD. In case of renewed Dollar weakness we could see a move lower, into 0.9960 at least.

As usual, my scenarios:

Scenario 1. Price keeps moving lower past the 0.9980 level and trades into the 0.9960 support area

Scenario 2. Price moves into the 1.0010 support area and moves higher into the 1.0030-40 resistance again. From there the move lower can start. The initial target is the same 0.9960.

Notice that the big 1.0040 resistance level has targets below at the 0.94s...

Later on I will record a video and post it on my Blog in which I will analyze the 4-hour chart as well...

Let me know your thoughts.

Hello all,
I think this can be good to keep in mind when trading the USD-related pairs. Let me have your ideas/comments...

Here is an update on the Dollar Index trading plan on the daily timeframe aligned to what we could see in the Euro.
Pls, let me have your ideas and comments.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1360859352

The Dollar Index held the 79.90 extension long on the daily yesterday and it is currently trading the related support area at 80. This long setup with stop below 79.80, has two targets above at 80.70 (1st target) and then 81.30 (2nd target).

If the Dollar Index keeps trading in extension as it does in its moves higher (the Euro correspondingly moves lower in extension shorts) the next support (after/if traded second target at 81.30) would be at 80.90, with a stop (failure level) below 80.80. Such a further long setup could bring price to targets at 81.50 (1st target area) and then 81.80 (2nd and last target area).

If the Dollar Index gets to the 81.80 area that would be within the old level and area of resistance in the 81.70s. If price gets there and then starts moving lower, a confirmation of a new short would come with price below 81.50.

The violation of the indicated levels as/if we move higher, provide indication for the bearish scenarios/setups. I will use this analysis to help understanding when the current EUR/USD short will end.

Let me know the views on your charts.
Thank you.

Placed a small probe short 236.
This pair is "due" for retrace

closed my short +11pips
Strong resistance.

Short 1,023 SL 1,026 TP 1,016 coz I saw some divergence .... Let's see !

Short 1.0250
I am surprised such hyper inflated pig is not getting attention here.
TP 150pips down at 618 fib

closed few shorts with profit
+30pips
Short again 265,257
just a comment about fractals.I love them.To me best thing about Bill Williams.In short fractal is high bar followed by 2 lower bars.Like your middle finger.Every time they appear expect change of direction.It is for you to filter which TF fractals are worth while to trade.I trade 5min with larger TF in mind.

+32pips stopped out at 245
Reentered lot of shorts from 300 280 2x270