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  • #321
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:02pm Jan 30, 2013 8:02pm
Quoting mypipbull
Soybeans

Orders placed - Buy [email protected] Sell [email protected]
Long orders filled last night.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #322
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:09pm Jan 30, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting j4d
..........
Im sure Mike wont mind if I reply. Though it might be nice if Olu and mike add : )..........
I certainly do not mind. We are very much on the same page with how we look at fundamentals.

I will expand a bit more in a post soon.

Mike
  • #323
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:55pm Jan 30, 2013 8:55pm
AUD/USD

I believe you can be "Long and Bearish" or "Short and Bullish" at the same time. This is not all that unusual when you think about it.

This is one of those situations.

My COT bias is Bearish for AUD.
My current positioning is Long AUD (Long AUD/JPY and Short GBP/AUD) Trend following.

I am expecting the AUD to be in for a bit of a correction at some stage. Price has been contained by the 1.06 level for some time now. There is a supportive uptrend line (an ascending triangle or sorts?) and after bouncing strongly on 28th Jan, yesterday's close was pretty weak. This was at a time where most would have expected the upward momentum to continue.

There is always the possibility that we break above 1.06 and then we could be off to 1.1 again but the first scenario that could play out is the breakdown. As a result I have orders placed to sell a break of the recent 28th Jan low.

Orders = [email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #324
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:33am Jan 31, 2013 8:33am
Quoting mypipbull
Long orders filled last night.
Hi Mike,
Would you consider 1500 as the first trouble area.
Cheers
Novice.
  • #325
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:41pm Jan 31, 2013 3:41pm
GBP/AUD - Closed for 1R Loss
  • #326
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:45pm Jan 31, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting novice198
Hi Mike,
Would you consider 1500 as the first trouble area.
Cheers
Novice.
Yeah looks logical, I would say 1550-1500 as a broad 'zone'.
If we clear this zone then 1700 is next.
  • #327
  • Jan 31, 2013 4:57pm Jan 31, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
I hear you. I just realized this a few months ago. Every trader has his/hers own style (Hence my status below my avatar ).

You cannot force a method on somebody just because it's a profitable one, cause they may f**k up with trade management since they are not cut up for that particular style.

I asked you that because I noticed that this concept, which is entirely new to me (watching Daily bars from a HH/HL/LH/LL perspective) , works out more often than not when combined with solid S/R and Macro (COT/Seasonals) analysis . Guess I am lucky...
Griz,

I have been thinking about it.....using the Daily HH/HL/LH/LL (your example on Silver) when applied to S/R as a method of 'getting early' is quite nice. Its something I might look at providing it is in-line with COT bias etc as you mentioned.

I have been getting more conservative on entry recently however, trading PA with S/R as further confirmation adds weight to the possibility of a successful 'early' entry when trading against the 'current' trend.

My usual approach is to use PA to get in slow and then get out even slower, this sometimes gives up profit but makes for a higher win rate.....the usual trade off.

Thanks for your comments.
  • #328
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:17pm Feb 3, 2013 6:17pm
General Update
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  • #329
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:57am Feb 7, 2013 3:57am
Quoting mypipbull

Further to this post I have placed orders for a Buy in this market.
An aggressive entry is very possible about today's pin bar (also an outside day) however I am going easy on this one and buying a breakout above 800 (123 pattern). This is inline with the grains as a complex and higher prices could be on the way.
Wheat ZWH13

Although a new bull trend is not confirmed yet, I have placed long orders above the 6th Feb high (pinbar).

This is a pretty aggressive entry for me but I have no reason yet to not still be bullish (despite the recent LH and LL pattern)
Another reason this entry is appealing is that I can tuck my stop orders below the lowest recent low and expect it to be pretty well defended.
If the low of this pinbar is taken out before my buy orders are filled, I will cancel orders and wait for another opportunity.

A little more speculative than usual but will see how it goes.

Orders - [email protected] [email protected]
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  • #330
  • Feb 7, 2013 6:53am Feb 7, 2013 6:53am
Quoting mypipbull
Wheat ZWH13

Although a new bull trend is not confirmed yet, I have placed long orders above the 6th Feb high (pinbar).

This is a pretty aggressive entry for me but I have no reason yet to not still be bullish (despite the recent LH and LL pattern)
Another reason this entry is appealing is that I can tuck my stop orders below the lowest recent low and expect it to be pretty well defended.
If the low of this pinbar is taken out before my buy orders are filled, I will cancel orders and wait for another opportunity.

A little more speculative...
Hey!

Aren't you concerned about that last Support that was broken and that can now turn into Resistance right on top of your candle break?

Attached Image
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #331
  • Feb 7, 2013 3:41pm Feb 7, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Hey!

Aren't you concerned about that last Support that was broken and that can now turn into Resistance right on top of your candle break?

Attachment
Sure a bit....if orders get filled up there I am happy to be long (false break always a possibility though), if the low breaks first then orders are off. Its all about the order in which it happens and this is always the way when trading pinbars like this as an early entry.

I see 800 is a major but I see 765 as a minor level.

Don't get me wrong this is pretty speculative as mentioned but for me its a good opportunity for the ideal stop loss location as well.
  • #332
  • Feb 9, 2013 4:02am Feb 9, 2013 4:02am
Zoom out a bit and the picture looks different.. and I'm seeing reports that the wheat harvest in India/Argentina and Brazil is down.

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  • #333
  • Feb 10, 2013 5:01pm Feb 10, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting stewrigh
Zoom out a bit and the picture looks different.. and I'm seeing reports that the wheat harvest in India/Argentina and Brazil is down.

Attachment
Hey Stu,
That is supportive also.
For me its speculative as the trend is not confirmed up yet.
Got long last week also. Despite weak prices on Friday across the Grains.
  • #334
  • Feb 10, 2013 5:03pm Feb 10, 2013 5:03pm
General Update
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  • #335
  • Feb 11, 2013 3:56am Feb 11, 2013 3:56am
Gold

Looking to buy a break of 2 with stop below 3.
The break above 2 would be a break above a significant trendline.
Plenty of upside available resistance at 1700, 1750 on the way to 1800.

Orders - [email protected] [email protected]
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  • #336
  • Feb 11, 2013 4:02am Feb 11, 2013 4:02am
Crude

Shorting below 2 with stop above 3.
Energies are looking a bit overdone. COT favours the short side. Looks a bit like a H&S pattern?

[email protected] [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #337
  • Feb 11, 2013 7:35am Feb 11, 2013 7:35am
funny how some else highlights a chart and I say to myself `why did i not see that?` . i agree mpb that there might be something here. im afraid i might nick this trade if it stands up to my scrutiny at the end of the day today

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #338
  • Feb 11, 2013 6:48pm Feb 11, 2013 6:48pm
Quoting Olu
funny how some else highlights a chart and I say to myself `why did i not see that?` . i agree mpb that there might be something here. im afraid i might nick this trade if it stands up to my scrutiny at the end of the day today

olu
True.....I would now guess that after today's close it would not have stood up to your scrutiny.
Basically if I call long get short......I'm in the hole a bit on the Grains atm too.....
  • #339
  • Edited 8:31pm Feb 11, 2013 6:49pm | Edited 8:31pm
Crude

Sell orders cancelled as at the close I now have a buy signal. I am not taking this buy signal. The 102 area is not too far away and not enough risk to fade my bias.

Gold

Long orders cancelled as we have now broken strongly down through the trendline. This market may present a sell signal soon and I would consider fading my bullish bias if that is the case. I would expect support or a battle at least at 1630 but below that 1530 looks like the next ultimate target.

Wheat

Not looking too flash atm. I may pay for jumping the gun a little here. Note to self....let the new trend develop first.

Soybeans

Testing times ahead too. I still hold my bias but not where this position is at for the moment. Will honour the stop none the less.
  • #340
  • Feb 11, 2013 7:55pm Feb 11, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting mypipbull
True.....I would now guess that after today's close it would not have stood up to your scrutiny.
Basically if I call long get short......I'm in the hole a bit on the Grains atm too.....
You are right MPB. It didnt stand up to the scrutiny. I always like the daily candle to close even if it means I might lose out on a better entry or something profitable. The 'H&S' structure is not out of the picture as price might be really be carving our a higher right shoulder. The strength of the candle is worrying though.

BTW your calls are good. We think alike in many ways. Keep on doing what you do. Anyone who decides to fade your calls do so at their own peril.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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