EurAnalysis

hi
sorry 1.38200

ya it is PT, but it is my position size which save the day for me.my main position is non leverage,which is underwater, now only i am putting slightly bigger positions.presently slightly stretch but becos of the position quite spread out i have means to withstand this move.let see what happen,i usually dont like this moves which happen on friday.regards

LONG LIVE NON-LEVERAGE. HIP HIP HURRAY,HIP HIP HURRAY

well hello
could we be at the top of a wave 3 , or in a wave 5 on E/U, if it is a wave 5 it does look extended please,please help
regards.
cross

help luis or cableguy
can you show chart on e/u count please.
regards.
cross

My take is that it is a slightly extended wave C of an ABC correction. If it goes parabolic upwards from here, then it will soon be over.
I could be wrong. I am not an EW tech but that's how I am reading it.

HI PT
THANX

I don't understand where do you stand on this? so ECB is not part of the currency war according to you previous comments, is that bad or good? ...is artificially devaluing a currency for extended periods of time the way to go, is that what you are implying?

Eur/GBP is the textbook of what is (was) going on, Sterling is getting hammered both ways, via the poorest [except Greece and Spain] numbers in Europe (triple dip, highest inflation in Europe, high unemployment, etc etc) and the BOE acting like a mad cow with QE, printing money and openly devaluing the Pound, while the Euro made the risk bottom with normal capitals flowing back to the system and with ECB with the hands tie to ease ....

In simple words, I don't understand what is the surprise on that pair? ...I haven't hear and I don't know of any sane investor selling that pair in the last 3 months .... or in other words, the euro doesnt need to be the one to explain every move across the FX board, sometimes the forces on the other side overpower the factor on the euro....

I think that's the issue with some Euro permabears (not particularly you btw ) that euro strength is (was) and can be possible because panic is off (doesn't mean euro is good) and the other side of the pairs are getting hammered either by CB or by poor economic numbers....no more no less...just simple traditional macro factors.

sisse

http://ca-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo

It's proving hard to argue against the ongoing themes in FX as both EUR and JPY continue into 2013 much as they ended 2012. We wonder just how long we will have to wait before the generally relaxed attitude being displayed in the Eurozone towards the strong EUR begins to turn, but if it can hit a 1.37 handle there will likely be plenty of models looking for 1.3833. USD/JPY has been taking out higher levels for fun, even the exporters have been sitting back and we have no doubt that the still relatively new government would be happy to see 100-110. It's hard to believe that questions on the dangers of a Currency War will not be asked at G20 in mid-February (especially given that Switzerland has been invited), but progression higher for both EUR/USD and USD/JPY have been linear enough to make it hard to find reliable stop levels. We would expect a break of 1.3400/10 to find some stops on EUR/USD; on USD/JPY all we hear are buyers on dips ......... The picture is less clear elsewhere. GBP is currently subject to weekly rumours of a downgrade, and while Cable does get some help from EUR/USD running higher closing below 1.5770/1.5800 is a negative signal. EUR/GBP breaking up above .8665 will have longs looking for .8785.

http://ca-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/ya/down...d=YahooMailNeo

The FOMC meeting might ordinarily expect top billing but nothing new was expected and nothing new was delivered. US GDP got a lot more attention, showing a shock -0.1% for Q4, largely due to deeper than expected corrections to the above trend Q3 data. Jobs data was the other big feature; the ADP private release was a strong +192k, and while it did revise December down to be close to December's NFP headline, come Friday the BLS reported a headline NFP at +157k but revised both December and November higher by 41k and 86k respectively. Less encouraging were a tick up in the unemployment rate to 7.9%, while between the two releases initial claims rebounded more than expected.
Late on Thursday the US Senate said it had enough votes to suspend the debt limit for three months.


CurrencyMan:


It is all about PERCEPTION.


When the perception changes and the US Economy is seen in bigger trouble than Europe then the Dow will go down and risk is off and the money will flow into the US Bonds for safety and yield. As long as Europe seems stable the Euro will remain firm. The month of February 2013 heading into March will most likely lead to a change of PERCEPTION with one caution. As long as the FED continues its money printing and it will then an outside EVENT needs to happen to change the Status Quo.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 53.1 in January from 50.2 in December, topping an expected reading of 50.6. Readings above 50 point to expansion in the sector, while those below point to contraction.

9:16 AM As weak as the yen has been vs. the dollar, it's been even weaker vs. the euro, which continues to grind out new highs against nearly all the planet's other paper currencies. The Germans have begun growling a bit, but with unexpectedly falling unemployment and rising manufacturing, the economy (nor the DAX) is showing no ill-effect. Read comments

All of the talking heads on television are excited about the stock market’s current level: the Dow is oh-so-close to the 2007 high. So I thought about 2007 and wondered if anyone would have thought the following would be happening right now, AND that the stock market would be at the same level – and soon to be higher.

 

1. Much higher unemployment that now seems to be structurally higher (not coming down).
2. Highest amount of citizens ever on welfare – food stamps – with a now politically correct name of SNAP.
3. Massive home devaluation.
4. Massive evictions across the entire country.
5. Corporate earnings not exactly the best.
6. GDP less than zero – contraction!
7. Deficit spending greater than $1Trillion…every year.
8. Debt-to-GDP ratio in banana republic territory: 103.8%.
9. Nearly every Western country on the globe is insolvent. A French labor minister recently admitted that France “…is a totally bankrupt state.”

If this was foretold; would you also believe that the market RALLIED over 100%? Surely, in 2007, you would have thought it impossible but it is a reality. Send your thank you cards and warm wishes to Ben Bernanke at the Fed.

Long live Corporatism and financial socialism.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."
---Larry Levin







All opinions welcome...

I prefer to send my thank you card to you Currency Man for your insightful posts.

Live long and prosper...
Spock from classic Star Trek

Hello everyone.

My abject apologies if my post may look slightly biased, but for want of any technical signs at this very point (in my humble opinion) of the beginning of a new downtrend all the counts are going to be the upside ones.

1. The horizontal upside count (the yellow rectangle) yields 1.366 (achieved).
2. The vertical upside count (the blue arrow) yields 1.363 (achieved).
3. The vertical upside count (the light green arrow) yields 1.382.
4. The vertical upside count (the pink arrow) yields 1.393.
5. The vertical upside count (the white arrow) yields 1.392. This one has yet to be activated by breaking above the highest X column at ~ 1.3700. Activation of this count would confirm the target of the 4th vertical upside count.

Important levels to watch: 1.3580, 1.3530.






Thanks.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Che,
Always like your post. What is ur P&F box size and reversal settings? 10 x 3 reversal? Can you share indie? Thanks. You should post more often.

Thank you MKFXTrader!

It's 0.0010 x 3 (or, if you prefer, '10 pips x 3') . This is TradeStation, not Metatrader 4, but you might want to look for some indies on this page. Since I don't use any of them I can't really say which one is better. Hope this helps!

Thx che. I am using some of them from there. They are not ideal on mt4 thogh. May look into another alternative. Peace

I also use P&F as one of my trader's tools. Here is the indo for MT4 P&F Chart. P&F TL will place Red/Green arrows on your chart that correspond to the X/O's if you want an overlay and not a separate PF chart.

My gift to all. GL

Here is an example of P&F trend lines on my bigger TF chart

Note the Red/Green arrows. I use the bigger TF chart overlaid on the others so the P&F trend lines comes in handy. There is also an audio alert.

Che many thanks for your P&F EurAnalysis....

What settings do you prefer and what TF?

Sorry for the multi posts but if anyone wants to use my settings I will send screen shots of how I your humble FX comrade have it set up.

Here are my settings for the P&F chart

You're always welcome!

Thanks for the indicators, will definitely try them out!

For P&L trend lines use the same settings for constancy. If you find other settings work better please post and I will adjust mine. They seem to work OK as they are.

I like bright and bold (yea like me...lol) so my visual settings may be much for other's tastes.