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  • #7,021
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:44am Feb 3, 2013 7:44am
we all learning
TY for your support & help
as posted earlier good thread to learn EW

Quoting Luis Carlos
i really like the discuss my friends. thanks to come. if you really want to learn ew no doubt to send a pm
  • #7,022
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:59am Feb 3, 2013 7:59am
Quoting stevewalker
we all learning
TY for your support & help
as posted earlier good thread to learn EW
Whats up Steve, more upside for euro dollar, that means the high on friday is not the top
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,023
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:07am Feb 3, 2013 8:07am
Quoting thodie
Hello Venzen,

i donīt want to conquer your view as iīm still a student belong to EW.
My question is that 3 and four on your view valid?
because there is no valid 1 and 2 as far as i see.

The count below is my first "serious" i have tried to put in what i know about elliot until now.
if there are wrong countīs - lables please let me know.

Iīm bullish but from this montly view (if it is valid) retracement of wave 3
could go down to ~1.00
The deeper i look into this pair the bearisher i get on midtherm. Explaination follows

Luis, thank you iīm serious interested to learn EW!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD monthly.PNG Size: 53 KB
just do it
  • #7,024
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:15am Feb 3, 2013 8:15am
Quoting danko316
I think that we will go downhill . As I see it. I'll wait for the breakout price in extended triangle .
Your daily count not good. 3 wave can't be the shortest wave.
  • #7,025
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:36am Feb 3, 2013 8:36am
still LG till see a sign of reverse

Quoting Luis Carlos
Whats up Steve, more upside for euro dollar, that means the high on friday is not the top
  • #7,026
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:48am Feb 3, 2013 8:48am
LG s should be carefull
!!
Magician of EW is giving some signs my gıess

Quoting infinitus
Sentiment EURUSD and proposed long term count -daily chart


wave green B may be finished or soon to be finished

obey the bearish divergence on RSI 14
  • #7,027
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:49am Feb 3, 2013 8:49am
Quoting stevewalker
still LG till see a sign of reverse
yes, no doubt about it
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,028
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:51am Feb 3, 2013 8:51am
Quoting stevewalker
LG s should be carefull
!!
Magician of EW is giving some signs my gıess
I expected 3 waves backs and the 5 up to complete the cycle if there is not more extensions
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,029
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:53am Feb 3, 2013 8:53am
so whats your rougly TG ?

Quoting Luis Carlos
I expected 3 waves backs and the 5 up to complete the cycle if there is not more extensions
  • #7,030
  • Feb 3, 2013 9:01am Feb 3, 2013 9:01am
Quoting thodie
Hello Venzen,

i donīt want to conquer your view as iīm still a student belong to EW.
My question is that 3 and four on your view valid?
because there is no valid 1 and 2 as far as i see.
Thodie, thanks for bringing a longer term AUDUSD chart to the discussion. Now that I've seen longer term price action I can say that the blue count (3) and (4) AND (5) on my previous chart are not valid.

Quote
The count below is my first "serious" i have tried to put in what i know about elliot until now.
if there are wrong countīs - lables please let me know.

Good effort and some few labels I would question (indicated on your chart below):
1) in the blue ellipse - those consecutive a-b a-b labels - you should add some c's - a-b-c!
2) also at the blue ellipse - the [A]-[b]-[C] expanded flat seems really out of proportion to everything else in the chart. Despite the strange action (at your labels a-b a-b) the wave up seems to fit into the preceding action as wave 5 - an ending diagonal perhaps? Same reasoning moves wave 4 to my green (4) label.
3) I put 1-2 labels where you put a-b after wave (C) in Jan 2009. I think this may have been what you meant to do but a small mistake on your part - no sweat.
4) Moving 1-2 to Jan 2009 then implies 3-4-5 up for a completed impulse.

I don't want to impose my count on yours and I have better insight into this chart's count now that you have provided more history, so I have suggested ((1)) and (A) labels at the larger degree. However, I must say that I suspect the advance from 2009 to late 2011 to be a zigzag wave B. The symmetry may not be there but a zigzag (instead of single impulse) would explain the higher MACD and RSI values we see in wave 5.

Quote
Iīm bullish but from this montly view (if it is valid) retracement of wave 3
could go down to ~1.00

EDIT: IGNORE the count below please!

I only saw this after writing my response! Nevermind, here is the chart with suggestions to your count

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_monthly_sugg_12Feb2013.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #7,031
  • Feb 3, 2013 9:12am Feb 3, 2013 9:12am
Guys aussie should go to 1.055 this week I think we ended a diagonal wave C or wave 1
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,032
  • Feb 3, 2013 9:14am Feb 3, 2013 9:14am
price has failed 4 times to break descending TL upwards!

On daily Chart it has broken one acending TL (of course there are more to draw.)
Elliott rules contracting Triangle: "E may not move beyond the end of C" question is in terms
of price or the TL?

in any way the contracting triangle scenario would be invalid if the price goes below 1.033?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD weekly.PNG Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD daily.PNG Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD dailyV2.PNG Size: 29 KB
just do it
  • #7,033
  • Feb 3, 2013 9:45am Feb 3, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Guys aussie should go to 1.055 this week I think we ended a diagonal wave C or wave 1
1.055 seems the next likely target, but please explain your wave c / 1 reasoning - you mean inside the barrier triangle or at a larger degree?
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  • #7,034
  • Feb 3, 2013 9:56am Feb 3, 2013 9:56am
Quoting venzen
1.055 seems the next likely target, but please explain your wave c / 1 reasoning - you mean inside the barrier triangle or at a larger degree?
Yes inside
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,035
  • Feb 3, 2013 10:51am Feb 3, 2013 10:51am
Quoting venzen
That is a high reward opportunity, not true? I will do more analysis and post here.

My broker is doing maintenance till later on Sunday so I've pulled this 6 year price history for AUDUSD from Bigcharts.com.

The thing that concerns me is similar to what Luis pointed out with his count showing a double three wave B (of 4) and an imminent wave C (of 4) going further down. The red count below makes provision for a lower degree correction down - either wave C (of 4) or wave (C) (of X). The blue count assumes, as we have been doing, that one...
Nice work everyone, here is alternative count I hinted at previously. Did in pencil so easy to see adjustments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_alldata2_12Feb2013.png Size: 164 KB
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  • #7,036
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:30am Feb 3, 2013 11:30am
My view on h4 chart

http://i1321.photobucket.com/albums/...psbe9a863d.gif
  • #7,037
  • Edited 12:59pm Feb 3, 2013 12:11pm | Edited 12:59pm
AUDUSD

Scott, Thanks for the update - what you previously hinted at is now clear to see. For my own planning for the week I would like to summarize everything forum members have discussed re AUDUSD to date:

1) My initial hopes for a 1600 pip blast up have become deflated by evidence pointing to a longer term downtrend. However, there are still many pips to be harvested to the downside.

2) MACD readings (see red circle on my chart) for the previous impulsive top suggest that the overall advance is over. Wave count suggests the current correction is not complete, altho AUDUSD will most likely move higher now that price is tracing out 5 waves up with 3 wave corrections (thanks Luis). Likely short term target: 1.055 with several Fib levels and a few pivot levels as resistance along the way.

3) Major, longer term pivot levels wait much further down around 1.022 and 0.88. These will probably be reached via a strong (impulsive) C wave down. A move from current price levels to 1.022 (or lower) implies a period of USD strength and such a time should surely arrive after major benchmarks such as the EURUSD, Dow & S&P come down from their incredible highs.

So, a move up is not only likely, it is underway. Will this move up go to 1.20? Who knows. The evidence suggests price will be rejected by 1.10 and perhaps never even reach it. A strong downtrend is highly likely but will need us to see some important resistance being broken impulsively to the downside as confirmation. Once we have confirmation of the confirmation it will be time to open positions

As for the current move higher I am going to open a small long position once price both opens and closes above 1.0430 with a SL at 1.0425 and TP 1.054

This is my working count based on everything we have discussed:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_6yr_4Feb2013.png Size: 131 KB
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  • #7,038
  • Feb 3, 2013 12:48pm Feb 3, 2013 12:48pm
http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...um03-02-13.png

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...uw03-02-13.png
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  • #7,039
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:23pm Feb 3, 2013 1:23pm
SPX;

Apologies for so many circled fib levels here, but this is an amazing chart, with so many fib relationships, its worth studying. How we will react at the upper TL we shall have to wait and see...

http://i1168.photobucket.com/albums/...xw03-02-13.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #7,040
  • Edited 1:29pm Feb 3, 2013 1:27pm | Edited 1:29pm
That is a formidable corrective combination in your latest AUDUSD chart.

I agree with your large degree WXY because of wave overlap from 2001 - 2008. Contracting triangle in wave X position.. Fib levels correlate really well.

Digesting your count is forcing me to reconsider my "USD strength" theory yet has reignited the prospect of thrust to 1.20...

Really like your charts and analysis.
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