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  • #7,001
  • Feb 2, 2013 8:03am Feb 2, 2013 8:03am
Quoting venzen
AUDUSD - wave e of the contracting triangle seems to be a forming a barrier triangle itself like on the chart below. Assuming that the scenario plays out as anticipated, we can project upside thrust out of the triangle to reach ~1.20. However, I am not familiar with this pair's price history and wave count so the time projection for the start of such a large move is uncertain.

The size of the move (in favour of AUD) implies USD weakness and it would make sense for the thrust out of the triangle to coincide with wave 2 corrections in the...
Venzen, Tim, Thodie, et al, great job and analysis. That is why I posted and why I bother to spend time at threads like this one. I posted because it has a great set up and to engender discussion.

I have slightly different count but that is great because soon it will play out. My target is 1.08. We will see. Similar, but mine has less upside, less downside, and less forecasted range.

The big difference I believe is due to the fact I removed noise (candles) and used a bar chart. That dramatically changes the tl's in this case. Something I am experimenting with to test efficacy.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,002
  • Feb 2, 2013 8:40am Feb 2, 2013 8:40am
Quoting venzen
AUDUSD - wave e of the contracting triangle seems to be a forming a barrier triangle itself like on the chart below. Assuming that the scenario plays out as anticipated, we can project upside thrust out of the triangle to reach ~1.20. However, I am not familiar with this pair's price history and wave count so the time projection for the start of such a large move is uncertain.

The size of the move (in favour of AUD) implies USD weakness and it would make sense for the thrust out of the triangle to coincide with wave 2 corrections in the...


Hi Venzen,

your triangle count wave E is not valid. There simply can not be a triangle in wave E position. You can get in wave E position an ending diagonal, but since the movement in your wave E is so far sideways it seems to be not the case for an ending diagonal wave E

Likely the wave E ended there, where you have the end of wave "a" of the small triangle..........
  • #7,003
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:14am Feb 2, 2013 9:14am
Quoting Mr. Scott
Venzen, Tim, Thodie, et al, great job and analysis. That is why I posted and why I bother to spend time at threads like this one. I posted because it has a great set up and to engender discussion.

I have slightly different count but that is great because soon it will play out. My target is 1.08. We will see. Similar, but mine has less upside, less downside, and less forecasted range.

The big difference I believe is due to the fact I removed noise (candles) and used a bar chart. That dramatically changes the tl's in this case....
Scott. On weekly wave 3 was end on 2011.07.27 and top was 1.1080. Your weekly count starts from 2012.05.05.
Target for wave 5 must be higher than top of wave 3.(>1.1080)
Nice weekend to all.
  • #7,004
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:27am Feb 2, 2013 9:27am
Hi guys, I know I forgot you with Aussie but euro yen is a better trade right. Here is a count that you never find out in the internet.
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,005
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:33am Feb 2, 2013 9:33am
Sentiment EURUSD and proposed long term count -daily chart


wave green B may be finished or soon to be finished

obey the bearish divergence on RSI 14
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  • #7,006
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:34am Feb 2, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Scott. On weekly wave 3 was end on 2011.07.27 and top was 1.1080. Your weekly count starts from 2012.05.05.
Target for wave 5 must be higher than top of wave 3.(>1.1080)
Nice weekend to all.

Tim, I agree with the concept and disagree on the count. No problem, we will see and sets up good trades either way. If I were to change to your wave 3, then yes target would be higher. Thank you for your input.

Good weekend all. Glad I posted, some good discussion.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,007
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:51am Feb 2, 2013 9:51am
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment EURUSD and proposed long term count -daily chart


wave green B may be finished or soon to be finished

obey the bearish divergence on RSI 14
Nice chart Markus 1.4X is the number
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #7,008
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:57am Feb 2, 2013 9:57am
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment EURUSD and proposed long term count -daily chart


wave green B may be finished or soon to be finished

obey the bearish divergence on RSI 14
Nice job my friend, also have bearish triangle on weekly. Could get pb to 50 fib level on mine at 1.34895 for push higher. Or simply attack 1.385. I would say sentiment indicators say pb first.

Or sentiment was too high? 61.8 level is 1.313 or so.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,009
  • Feb 2, 2013 3:36pm Feb 2, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Nice job my friend, also have bearish triangle on weekly. Could get pb to 50 fib level on mine at 1.34895 for push higher. Or simply attack 1.385. I would say sentiment indicators say pb first.

Or sentiment was too high? 61.8 level is 1.313 or so.


Hi Scott,

yes, can go a bit higher, but there is no need for it right now.

I think it is not the best idea to expect price to reach the upper channel line. That is the place nearly all are looking at.


When we draw a line chart with ((high+low)/2) we do get a line, where price touched it right now with little overthrow. On the following chart it is the light green downsloping trendline


The move up from the 20x low has now produced multiple divergences on nearly all TF's up to weekly.

From now on chance seems to be more towards the lower side.



But in the end: what do I know? I clearly underestimated the move up from 20x from the get go LOL
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  • #7,010
  • Feb 2, 2013 4:02pm Feb 2, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Scott,

yes, can go a bit higher, but there is no need for it right now.

I think it is not the best idea to expect price to reach the upper channel line. That is the place nearly all are looking at.


When we draw a line chart with ((high+low)/2) we do get a line, where price touched it right now with little overthrow. On the following chart it is the light green downsloping trendline


The move up from the 20x low has now produced multiple divergences on nearly all TF's up to weekly.

From now on chance seems to be more towards the lower side.



But...
Thank you sir, been looking at this over the weekend since everyone seems to see the move to 1.385 then 1.42. So, what is the best way? Follow the channel straight up or down and then up so the most people are fooled. I could see a fib pb to 50% which is around 1.349, or really fool everyone and retrace to 61.8 fib at around 1.315? Seems I should favor down then up. No decision yet, just thinking and analyzing. Got some extra lines on my chart as I am working on it, but hopefully gets the idea across. Bearish triangle on weekly.

Scott
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #7,011
  • Edited 11:49pm Feb 2, 2013 10:29pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Venzen.Very nice.I like your analysis, but is about 1600 pips travel for wave 5.
That is a high reward opportunity, not true? I will do more analysis and post here.

My broker is doing maintenance till later on Sunday so I've pulled this 6 year price history for AUDUSD from Bigcharts.com.

The thing that concerns me is similar to what Luis pointed out with his count showing a double three wave B (of 4) and an imminent wave C (of 4) going further down. The red count below makes provision for a lower degree correction down - either wave C (of 4) or wave (C) (of X). The blue count assumes, as we have been doing, that one more wave up (wave 5) is required. But this presents a dilemma: Look at the MACD and RSI readings for the 3rd wave of each wave 3. The MACD reading on wave 3 of 3 is typically at its highest for each impulse when wave 3 is hitting its own subwave 3. But in the chart, the highest MACD value is already in - at wave 3 in the middle of the chart. The larger degree wave 3 (price top) label is problematic because it should have the highest MACD reading. Instead it appears to be wave 5 and the advance is over. Thus my red alternative count.

I am not certain of this but the evidence must be weighed.

Edit: incorporated Luis's count as alternate (red) count

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,012
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:15pm Feb 2, 2013 11:15pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Venzen,

your triangle count wave E is not valid. There simply can not be a triangle in wave E position. You can get in wave E position an ending diagonal, but since the movement in your wave E is so far sideways it seems to be not the case for an ending diagonal wave E

Likely the wave E ended there, where you have the end of wave "a" of the small triangle..........
Infinitus, thanks for challenging my count. OK, we have to revert to principle, so Guidelines for Contracting Triangle (EWP p.90): "Sometimes one of the waves, usually wave C, D, or E, subdivides into a contracting or barrier triangle. Often the effect is as if the entire triangle consisted of nine zigzags."

So, a triangle in wave E position is possible (sorry no chart examples on hand). However, let's consider the larger degree count: I think we need to seriously consider the bearish count proposed by Luis whereby wave y of B is completing and wave C is to follow. We have the benefit of knowing that a period of USD strength is coming as the EURUSD plummets. We can eliminate some counts with the knowledge that the EURUSD will decline in wave 1, correct in wave 2 and then thunder downwards for months. It is, in my view, unlikely that the AUDUSD pair will rally at the same time as EURUSD is in a large degree decline.

So, as attractive as the bullish count with its wave 5 surge appears, we have to consider all the options carefully. The style of interaction on this forum makes easy discussion and rational analysis possible.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #7,013
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:17am Feb 3, 2013 1:17am
Quoting venzen
Infinitus, thanks for challenging my count. OK, we have to revert to principle, so Guidelines for Contracting Triangle (EWP p.90): "Sometimes one of the waves, usually wave C, D, or E, subdivides into a contracting or barrier triangle. Often the effect is as if the entire triangle consisted of nine zigzags."

So, a triangle in wave E position is possible (sorry no chart examples on hand). However, let's consider the larger degree count: I think we need to seriously consider the bearish count proposed by Luis whereby wave y of B is completing...


Heheheh, thanks Venzen, did not have that on my mind :-)


Let us see if I will find something about the probability for that:


Swannell, who researched Elliott Waves carefully found the following structures for wave E:



82-86% zigzag
10-15% double zigzag
2-3% triple zigzag
1-3% contracting triangle



Now let us look, which probability a contracting triangle within an impulsive wave has:


wave 4 structure probabilities:

20-31% zigzag
3-4% double zigzag
1-2% triple zigzag
35-48% flat
8-22% double sideways
0-3% triple sideways
4-11% contracting triangle
2-5% expanding triangle



so we take the 11% from the latter one and the 3% from the first one and get a probability of 0.33% for the count to be right.


Not to say you are wrong or count is wrong, but with such a low probability I would clearly look for another higher probability count.





I do warn constantly to not lightheartedly counting a triangle in a wave 4 position, because of low probability. When one looks through the EW "blogosphere" or here in FF you can see trianges everywhere and the impression is, that the triangle is the most comon pattern in EW. But it is not, unfortunately :-)


But, hey, in the end, price has the highest chance to go further up in foreseeable future.


I do think, that wave E of the triangle has either concluded, or the wave E takes the shape of a flat, where we are now in wave C


We can draw lines and play the break of the boundaries



Keep on the good work, mate :-)


Wish you a nice weekend
  • #7,014
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:00am Feb 3, 2013 4:00am
Analysis for SP500

sorry for linking to my thread but hope it is useful


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post6414720

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post6414756

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post6414788
  • #7,015
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:14am Feb 3, 2013 5:14am
I think that we will go downhill . As I see it. I'll wait for the breakout price in extended triangle .
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  • #7,016
  • Edited 8:07am Feb 3, 2013 5:17am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting venzen
That is a high reward opportunity, not true? I will do more analysis and post here.

My broker is doing maintenance till later on Sunday so I've pulled this 6 year price history for AUDUSD from Bigcharts.com.

The thing that concerns me is similar to what Luis pointed out with his count showing a double three wave B (of 4) and an imminent wave C (of 4) going further down. The red count below makes provision for a lower degree correction down - either wave C (of 4) or wave (C) (of X). The blue count assumes, as we have been doing, that one...
Hello Venzen,

i donīt want to conquer your view as iīm still a student belong to EW.
My question is that 3 and four on your view valid?
because there is no valid 1 and 2 as far as i see.

The count below is my first "serious" i have tried to put in what i know about elliot until now.
if there are wrong countīs - lables please let me know.

Iīm bullish but from this montly view (if it is valid) retracement of wave 3
could go down to ~1.00


EDIT: IGNORE the count below please!
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just do it
  • #7,017
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:24am Feb 3, 2013 5:24am
Quoting danko316
I think that we will go downhill . As I see it. I'll wait for the breakout price in extended triangle .
Maybe i'm wrong saying this, but on your m5 chart, the last -iv wave seems a little too deep, even crossing end of wave -i if my eyes are not lying. But the waves don't form a wedge shape.

Therefore it could hardly be an impulsive move, unless some other wave fragmentation is on the move...

However those are a newbies's words in EWC world
  • #7,018
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:27am Feb 3, 2013 6:27am
Quoting Akh12851
Maybe i'm wrong saying this, but on your m5 chart, the last -iv wave seems a little too deep, even crossing end of wave -i if my eyes are not lying. But the waves don't form a wedge shape.

Therefore it could hardly be an impulsive move, unless some other wave fragmentation is on the move...

However those are a newbies's words in EWC world
Leading Exparding Diagonal have
wave 3>1
wave 4>2
wave 5>3
wave 4 overlaps 1
wave 4 can not overlaps 2
  • #7,019
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:36am Feb 3, 2013 6:36am
Quoting infinitus
Analysis for SP500

sorry for linking to my thread but hope it is useful


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post6414720

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post6414756

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post6414788
Infinitus, how can I access your links as a prejunior member?
  • #7,020
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:10am Feb 3, 2013 7:10am
i really like the discuss my friends. thanks to come. if you really want to learn ew no doubt to send a pm
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
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