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As Easy as "PI"

  • #261
  • Feb 1, 2013 2:07pm Feb 1, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting smatthew
This long TF method is starting to grow on me, thanks for sharing Spyderman!
I've had a rocky experience trading 5M (see my thread in the rookie section: One hit wonder or am I on to something?).

I'm actually quite comfortable entering trades on D1 your way, since the stops are large enough to withstand considerable drawdowns.
Now I'm less nervous at work, since I don't have to monitor my jumpy 5M trades all the time. I can actually get some work done

Currently 4 trades...
Glad to hear you're having success Matthew
  • #262
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:17pm Feb 1, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting smatthew
This long TF method is starting to grow on me, thanks for sharing Spyderman!
I've had a rocky experience trading 5M (see my thread in the rookie section: One hit wonder or am I on to something?).

I'm actually quite comfortable entering trades on D1 your way, since the stops are large enough to withstand considerable drawdowns.
Now I'm less nervous at work, since I don't have to monitor my jumpy 5M trades all the time. I can actually get some work done

Currently 4 trades...
Something else you might remember Matthew. The current trend is fairly mature which is not to say that it's done, just be aware of it.
So if it starts to falter don't get discouraged. Take the next signal and control your risk, more trends will come and all will work out fine.

On a side note........ It is extremely common to take some losses when you begin a new system, you have to hang in there, take the signals and the profits will take care of themselves.

Happy trading.
  • #263
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:50pm Feb 1, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting tradestar1
Something else you might remember Matthew. The current trend is fairly mature which is not to say that it's done, just be aware of it.
So if it starts to falter don't get discouraged. Take the next signal and control your risk, more trends will come and all will work out fine.

On a side note........ It is extremely common to take some losses when you begin a new system, you have to hang in there, take the signals and the profits will take care of themselves.

Happy trading.
Thanks for the encouragement Tradestar1
This system enables you to create your own equity millipede, just like Spyderman is currently doing since November.
Who knows where the current trends will end. Maybe next Monday or a couple of months and 1000 pips later
Riding that MACD wave..
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #264
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:03am Feb 2, 2013 12:03am
Quoting smatthew
Thanks for the encouragement Tradestar1
This system enables you to create your own equity millipede, just like Spyderman is currently doing since November.
Who knows where the current trends will end. Maybe next Monday or a couple of months and 1000 pips later
Riding that MACD wave..
You might also find this helpful....... How to Start a New Trading System
  • #265
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:54am Feb 2, 2013 2:54am
Quoting tradestar1
You might also find this helpful....... How to Start a New Trading System
An interesting read. When to get into a trend: only at the start or jump in along the way with lower stakes? I've been applying the latter. Spyderman mentioned taking addon trades, which I've more or less put to practice (live).
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #266
  • Feb 2, 2013 8:11am Feb 2, 2013 8:11am
Kind of funny how this has ended up building a form of millipede. I hadn't really intended it that way when I started even though I've tried several other ways to implement Graeme's thoughts. He did always say you have to find your own way of entering. Of course there's a lot of differences. I don't plan on holding for an undetermined time, nor closing 'nearer' term entries while keeping the old. Also, I have no provision for having older long positions in play while then starting short positions.

Another aspect of Graeme's method was moving everything to BE...not trailing. Makes me think... I wonder if I could layer in some more "Graeme-esk" type entries into PI. Move them to BE more rapidly and then just ignore them. They could even be much smaller lot sizes compared to the other positions. Hmmmm. Might be interesting.
  • #267
  • Feb 2, 2013 8:28am Feb 2, 2013 8:28am
I know somebody, who made a living from this strategy. I still hesitate to give it a try.

for your closed positions:
All Time-33.8%

For opened:
leverage 41:1 return 2,037.8%

That is very nice number, unfortunately this system you will get out when is already to late. Maybe you will have some loosing pips and your exit signal it will be when is "only" +300%



I must admit is nearly impossible to get out at the max/min point always. So very probably it will be to soon or to late the exit.

My problem is I am exiting to early(scalping in trend direction or counter trend). Not catching all movement, because has no steam and so on, an I wand to protect my green pips.

In your strategy: you take small and accept some looses (with SL or exit signal) and finally will close a trade to cover your loses and have money for next losers until build up another successfully trade. For sure this isn't working in ranging market, just in trending.

Why is this better way to build up to 41:1 leverage in 2.5 month, than take a trade with 41:1 and scale out/ close if you are wrong, if not, than "let the profit run"?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #268
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:04am Feb 2, 2013 9:04am
Quoting matheszabi
for your closed positions:
All Time-33.8%
Any long term trading strategy will have an initial balance drawdown. Has to happen. You're closing losing positions but not closing the winners as it's not time yet. The true test can only be after a few rounds of the successful cycles have finished, then you will see a truer representation of the system in the balance column.

Quoting matheszabi

That is very nice number, unfortunately this system you will get out when is already to late. Maybe you will have some loosing pips and your exit signal it will be when is "only" +300%


I must admit is nearly impossible to get out at the max/min point always. So very probably it will be to soon or to late the exit.
Well if every trade I have open reversed right now and hit the trailing stops, it wouldn't fall that far, so that's a moot point at this juncture.
You're right, it is impossible to consistently get out at the top/bottom. As I've said several times already in the thread (have you read it?) I will get drawdown off those equity highs as different pairs close out. They won't all close at once, but it will happen.

Quoting matheszabi

My problem is I am exiting to early(scalping in trend direction or counter trend). Not catching all movement, because has no steam and so on, an I wand to protect my green pips.
So how's that working for you?

Quoting matheszabi

For sure this isn't working in ranging market, just in trending.
Most assuredly...again as has been posted many times. The good news is: "Markets Trend" Open some daily, weekly, monthly charts and zoom out as far as you can...

Quoting matheszabi

Why is this better way to build up to 41:1 leverage in 2.5 month, than take a trade with 41:1 and scale out/ close if you are wrong, if not, than "let the profit run"?
I'm not willing to 'gamble' that kind of leverage on being 'right' one time. With 100 positions, if you're system has a positive expectancy, you have a much better chance to come out on the plus side in the long haul.

If you flip a coin your odds are of course 50/50 going in. If you only flip it once, and you're betting the farm. You better hope you get the right side of that 50.
If you flip a coin 100 times, you're odds are still 50/50. Each time you flip it, and more importantly 50/50 as a trading set. I might lose the first 10 flips, but I know that statistically, the block of trades will come out 50/50 and I have time to "catch up".

Now if you're trading system has more like a 65/35 win rate, I'm still not willing to risk the farm on one trade for fear of hitting that 35. Now I would be willing to risk 1/100th of the farm 100 times, have a measure of confidence that the trading set will hit the 65/35 mark. Now I have 1 1/3 farms.
  • #269
  • Feb 2, 2013 10:55am Feb 2, 2013 10:55am
Quoting spyderman
So how's that working for you?
Well, honestly bad.
Bad isn't because the system, but because of the boredom, leak of action and adrenaline take a look here and discipline...

When I am staying with "my trade" styles, using "normal" leverage, those few days are super ok, but are super boring. Monthly+20+50% usually, not really in negative, but happens, it depend how many time I need to break out my rules.

For that reason I wanted to have "something else" something new, interesting.

Also I know the forex can't be interesting and profitable too: or boring and profitable or interesting

My friend with this system had yearly +40+80% how much do you expect from it?

I think if I would have responsibility for a huge amount of money I wouldn't search adrenaline here, but elsewhere, and I would be even more profitable.

Unfortunately banks doesn't like either for loan.
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #270
  • Feb 2, 2013 10:55am Feb 2, 2013 10:55am
spidey for president
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #271
  • Edited 11:32am Feb 2, 2013 11:05am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting matheszabi
Well, honestly bad.
Bad isn't because the system, but because of the boredom, leak of action and adrenaline take a look here and discipline...

When I am staying with "my trade" styles, using "normal" leverage, those few days are super ok, but are super boring. Monthly+20+50% usually, not really in negative, but happens, it depend how many time I ned to break out my rules.

For that reason I wanted to have "something else" something new, interesting.

Also...
Well if you're looking for excitement, then a long term strategy probably isn't going to fit the bill. That's one reason we have a slow thread...not much happens hour to hour, or day to day for that matter. I'm trading binaries and spreads for more of an intraday 'fix' if you will. I like PI cuz I can sit down at the end of the trading day and make all my adjustments, set my pendings, etc. No babysitting.

Couldn't really say what I expect on an annual return. I expect more than 40-80% but that may be "PI-in-the-sky" () thinking based on being up 700% in equity since November.

Ask me this November and I'll tell you.
  • #272
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:29am Feb 2, 2013 11:29am
Help me to set up this environment at Dukascopy! I hate MT4...

He need 3 parameters, not 2.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macdDukas.png Size: 59 KB


If I would go to MA 22 and MA 7, the Dukas indicators has around 10-20 type of the Moving averages: Simple, Explonential, Double, triple, whatever, which one?
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #273
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:32am Feb 2, 2013 11:32am
even more:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macdControlable.png Size: 64 KB


I can choose for Macd what king of MA should be there.
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #274
  • Feb 2, 2013 11:34am Feb 2, 2013 11:34am
Quoting matheszabi
Help me to set up this environment at Dukascopy! I hate MT4...

He need 3 parameters, not 2.

Attachment

If I would go to MA 22 and MA 7, the Dukas indicators has around 10-20 type of the Moving averages: Simple, Explonential, Double, triple, whatever, which one?
Its an EMA on the close. You can put 0 in the Signal line as we're not using that. I have mine set to not even show the signal line (color=none)
  • #275
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:07pm Feb 2, 2013 12:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: maDaily.png Size: 65 KB


Thanks,

I have changed to EMA.
If this is good, I will re-read again your setups. The day candles can be different from your because my broker use GMT zone and maybe your others.

What I like in this method it is "no babysitting" you can be in excursion, sick or everything: once / day 15-30 min and is done the daily job. I like that hourly rate =))

If this is about 2x cross MA: I have tested between first systems a few years ago, and I have failed. Mostly because I wanted to trade Eur/USD and this pair is trading with bounce. Hard to follow Gatornila, but with a lot of time you can describe it, 4h chart is for scalping, is for daily work and I don't want to work anymore so much.
Like now the price is above the 2x ma, this system should say a strong buy, but at this pair if is combing in normal way than should be a pull back, if falling not so often and is falling a lot faster.

Let me see if I did correctly the homework:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: entry.png Size: 76 KB
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #276
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:27pm Feb 2, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting spyderman
Selected pairs:

It's important to realize that I do not trade this system on a purely mechanical or technical basis. I don't take every cross or trade every pair.
Some pairs and market conditions just aren't conducive to a trend play position.

Check out the NzdUsd chart. Lots of crosses and a couple of trends, but extremely choppy. I'd just as soon stay out of these types of pairs until they look a little more trendy.
Here is they key: why can't be programmed with an EA. Or maybe it could be if that entry is confirmed by the weekly chart? it is 7 day lagging
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #277
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:24pm Feb 2, 2013 1:24pm
The other fact what I can't understand is the multiple currency and they correlations.

What the reason to take the both majors and they crosses too, beside of higher spread at crosses?

AUD/USD Sell 1.0380
AUD/NZD Sell 1.2420
NZD/USD Buy 0.8462

AUD<->NZD<->USD


EUR/GBP Buy 0.8330
EUR/USD Buy 1.3483
EUR/JPY Buy 123.00
GBP/USD Sell 1.6004
GBP/JPY Buy 144.87

EUR, GPB, USD, JPY

And I see more JPY pairs


Why isn't better to take one more trade side at the major instead of the cross? 67 open positions...
point 7
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #278
  • Feb 2, 2013 1:32pm Feb 2, 2013 1:32pm
22 vs 7.

At the daily chart the 22 MA is the monthly one, because in one month there are 22 working days, usually.
Why the 7 and why not 5? - weekly
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #279
  • Feb 2, 2013 2:22pm Feb 2, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting matheszabi
22 vs 7.

At the daily chart the 22 MA is the monthly one, because in one month there are 22 working days, usually.
Why the 7 and why not 5? - weekly
Try them out.... nothing is etched in stone so find what works for you and use that.
Trading is an extremely variable activity, and a very personal one..... the thing that will help you be successful is to find what fits your personality and works for you ... once you have that... trade the hell out of it.
  • #280
  • Feb 2, 2013 5:08pm Feb 2, 2013 5:08pm
Quoting tradestar1
You might also find this helpful....... How to Start a New Trading System
For me it was more helpfully than the 12 year in the school

I knew, but never saw the definitions as : Closed equity, Total Equity, None-Risk equity, even if I have used it.
In many web pages I have seen move the SL to BE, which can be a slower account killer than the to short SL. Stopped out at BE 10 times, and once won 5 pip, that is still -5 pip if the spread it is just 1 pip, but from BE it is a free lottery ticket.

If I trade safe only 1% risk and daily max 1 trades very probably I will not make enough money ever to become rich.

Many bibliography what I have read, it had once a bigger trade (with all his money in) or an unclosed trade and came back several weeks/months from Holliday and there it was the fortune. I know it is a kind of gambling and can make very sad the 6th consecutive loss with a high leverage: build up the account from 11.76% of initial capital...in case of 30% risk x 6 consecutive loss. In case of coin toss systems: set a TP and a SL and forget it. There it comes the importance of none risk equity!


Trend Following is a strategy prone to drawdowns

Not sure which system will meet my trade style and in which can I believe.
Attached Image

This is not a system, I can't describe it. It is similar to Elliot Waves, I am just playing / trying to find those points where to enter and quickly exit when I am not sure about direction, or the trend seems to be over. Take a look at point C and E has the bars top not increasing, it is visible has no steam the micro trend, should stop it there and stay out. In case of after C, I would stay out around 8 candles, after E around 11 candles with high leveraged positions. I am doing high leverage only if I found safe according to daily, weekly chart
I want to buy PATIENCE
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