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  • #26,701
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:37pm Feb 1, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting surgeon
America'll be fracking rich.
Yes, because of the oil fracking of shale and tight rock formations.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,702
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:03pm Feb 1, 2013 5:03pm
Daily- 02/01/13

Last night the bears were so exciting about a bottomless collapse coming soon. The main reason was the yellow daily trendline broke already. Whoever had such thinking might have a car only going forward and cannot make turns.

The PA would switch its channel to anther one when it no longer fits in that existing channel. I believe the Aussie has fitted in the cyan channel perfectly since 12/12/12.
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  • #26,703
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:03pm Feb 1, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Yes, because of the oil fracking of shale and tight rock formations.
Exactly my point. You plagiarize me.
I see Beasts. I drop my scalpel and beckon to theatre nurse: "Charts!&
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  • #26,704
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:16pm Feb 1, 2013 5:16pm
The reason why the PA switches its channel is because the patterns or waves have changed. A new pattern needs a new channel. This is similar to shrimp molting. Shrimp grow but their shell doesn't. So, the molting help shrimp grow.

The PA cannot fit in a channel forever. At some point it has to 'molt". When this happens, don't just think the trendline is broken.

Quoting DaddyBear
Daily- 02/01/13

Last night the bears were so exciting about a bottomless collapse coming soon. The main reason was the yellow daily trendline broke already. Whoever had such thinking might have a car only going forward and cannot make turns.

The PA would switch its channel to anther one when it no longer fits in that existing channel. I believe the Aussie has fitted in the cyan channel perfectly since 12/12/12.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359759025
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,705
  • Feb 1, 2013 8:16pm Feb 1, 2013 8:16pm
Last week's PA was a continuation pattern to the bears. However, I think it's an ending pattern. The interesting part of the Forex trading is there are always two different views toward the same PA. Through the debates, I have gained more understanding of the market behaviors whether I was right or wrong.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,706
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:15pm Feb 1, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The reason why the PA switches its channel is because the patterns or waves have changed. A new pattern needs a new channel. This is similar to shrimp molting. Shrimp grow but their shell doesn't. So, the molting help shrimp grow.

The PA cannot fit in a channel forever. At some point it has to 'molt". When this happens, don't just think the trendline is broken.

You're right. But the channel is a down sloping channel now for at least the next two months and most likely all the way into 2014 somewhere. Major low projected in 2014.
  • #26,707
  • Edited 10:25pm Feb 1, 2013 10:05pm | Edited 10:25pm
This place is beyond my imaginations.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ia_Commons.jpg
Benh LIEU SONG (http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Benh)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...padocia_11.jpg
Brocken Inaglory (https://sites.google.com/site/thebrockeninglory/)
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,708
  • Feb 1, 2013 10:08pm Feb 1, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting chiknthief
You're right. But the channel is a down sloping channel now for at least the next two months and most likely all the way into 2014 somewhere. Major low projected in 2014.
Can you post your down sloping channel. My chart shows two upward channels.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359759025
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,709
  • Feb 1, 2013 10:41pm Feb 1, 2013 10:41pm
this is usually what happens. i get stopped out at BE. this has nothing with luck to do right?
it just touches the BE and turns back immediately.
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  • #26,710
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:05pm Feb 1, 2013 11:05pm
Quoting Arel
this is usually what happens. i get stopped out at BE. this has nothing with luck to do right?
it just touches the BE and turns back immediately.
Welcome Arel. The Forex market is volatile. When placing tight SL, the chances are they would be triggered. This has nothing to do with luck.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,711
  • Feb 1, 2013 11:24pm Feb 1, 2013 11:24pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Welcome Arel. The Forex market is volatile. When placing tight SL, the chances are they would be triggered. This has nothing to do with luck.
i would understand if it would rise 20 - 30 pips above. but just touching and turning back makes me crazy
  • #26,712
  • Edited Feb 2, 2013 12:25am Feb 1, 2013 11:48pm | Edited Feb 2, 2013 12:25am
Quoting Arel
i would understand if it would rise 20 - 30 pips above. but just touching and turning back makes me crazy
Next time place SL away from your entries.
daddybearforex. com
  • #26,713
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:51am Feb 2, 2013 12:51am
Quoting Arel
i would understand if it would rise 20 - 30 pips above. but just touching and turning back makes me crazy
I don't know how tight your SL is from the entry (or a S/R), but it seems like you may only be looking at a small sample of trades or haven't gotten a good feel for where to place your SL. Over the course of thousands of trades you will see that price hits your stop and reverses many times (and also hits your stop and keeps going many times). If you are placing your stops correctly, you should have a slight advantage over those thousands of trades. One of the most common errors among non-advanced or inexperienced traders when trading off S/R is that they overestimate this advantage. They think the advantage will always hold true even during small stretches of time. When it doesn't they become impatient and start making poor decisions. Then they also start to believe that prices are rigged against them.
  • #26,714
  • Edited 5:29am Feb 2, 2013 4:36am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting Arel
this is usually what happens. i get stopped out at BE. this has nothing with luck to do right?
it just touches the BE and turns back immediately.
Hi Arel,
yes this is a very common problem there are 2 answers:
1. if you are a fast intra-day scalper be glad with 20-30 pips and get them faster not waiting for 50-100 pips even if they look likely. Your entries were ok enabling you tight stops.
2. if your after bigger swings stops need to be placed wider for example in this case bailing when reaching a higher top would be fine. If you are nervous you could decide to lower your stop to a next lower top if reached and so insuring some profit.
What also helps is thinking like a big professional trader and asking yourself "how can I deceive all those retail traders" like stop hunting, fading breaks etc.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,715
  • Feb 2, 2013 4:40am Feb 2, 2013 4:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
Daily- 02/01/13

Last night the bears were so exciting about a bottomless collapse coming soon. The main reason was the yellow daily trendline broke already. Whoever had such thinking might have a car only going forward and cannot make turns.

The PA would switch its channel to anther one when it no longer fits in that existing channel. I believe the Aussie has fitted in the cyan channel perfectly since 12/12/12.
I'm very excited because of two very bearish monthly candles (they are not bearish on their own, but they imply a very bearish month ahead).
  • #26,716
  • Feb 2, 2013 7:21am Feb 2, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Arel
i would understand if it would rise 20 - 30 pips above. but just touching and turning back makes me crazy
My friend, makes perfect sense. Identify trades and risk/reward and probability of trade. If high probability trade, risk can be 1 to 1.

So, what is target? How many pips? You should be willing to risk that many pips and place sl accordingly. Also, put s/d zones on your side and place stops on other side. If not possible, maybe wait for better entry.

If you want risk free trade, close half and let half run by moving be by the pips you gained and that would have prevented stop out here. Generally speaking pa is going to want to come back and retest that area before moving on.

Good luck.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,717
  • Feb 2, 2013 7:28am Feb 2, 2013 7:28am
Quoting DaddyBear
I wouldn't think so after l learned that the US is going to be the top oil producer by 20xx.
Sorry my friend, my outlook is debt bubble implodes, Fed forced to inflate, USD collapse.

I do not want this, so hope I am wrong and sorry to be so depressing on the weekend, but that is my view based on a lot of thinking and analysis.

Since I am a positive person, the good news is we come out better the other side and there will be a massive transfer of wealth.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #26,718
  • Feb 2, 2013 8:53am Feb 2, 2013 8:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
The reason why the PA switches its channel is because the patterns or waves have changed. A new pattern needs a new channel. This is similar to shrimp molting. Shrimp grow but their shell doesn't. So, the molting help shrimp grow.

The PA cannot fit in a channel forever. At some point it has to 'molt". When this happens, don't just think the trendline is broken.
You are very good with " Picture Stories ", It is the best way to teach and get your point across to others..... They work well if you want someone to remember something or change their feelings about something......
To be able to change one's feelings will make them remember your thoughts......
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #26,719
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:07am Feb 2, 2013 9:07am
Quoting Arel
this is usually what happens. i get stopped out at BE. this has nothing with luck to do right?
it just touches the BE and turns back immediately.
Once your 25 pips to the plus, move your SL to in the money a bit, Don't let them take it all back......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #26,720
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:15am Feb 2, 2013 9:15am
Quoting maximmm
I'm very excited because of two very bearish monthly candles (they are not bearish on their own, but they imply a very bearish month ahead).
Can you post a chart to support your opinion?
daddybearforex. com
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