I disagree. I have potential short at 5821 :nerd:
liked the joke... 
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
- #65,481
- Jan 30, 2013 12:08pm Jan 30, 2013 12:08pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
liked the joke... 
- #65,483
- Jan 30, 2013 12:16pm Jan 30, 2013 12:16pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
Excellent article. I agree in total. The only thing that threw me off was your sentence above.
To those who think that playing the news is smart I ask to read this post from my blog.
Your article actually better details what you meant to say I believe. As playing the reaction to the news would've better suited that sentence.
Its hard to argue that the news gets the ball rolling. Regardless of what direction one interprets the markets to move. News moves markets. Markets are made of people. News has a direct relation to markets...
The point I wanted to make in that article it's much simpler. Of course you can be there and hope to beat HFT algorithms and human emotions, but that's not the catch.
The main point is that participation at key setups and levels move the markets not news. Participation creates the patterns that are completed by news. I am talking about patterns on daily and weekly timeframes. Of course news can skew the 15min or even 4-hour chart, but not the larger setups. Trying to interpret the news is a void attempt. This is why same news generated in the past very different outcomes as they will keep doing it in the future.
So to be a successful trader you need to be able to read price action disregarding the interpretation of the news, which will always come to complete the existing pattern. I like the fact that this view is difficult to accept and it is unpopular. This is the best warranty I have that this view is effectively close to reality.
My opinions, of course, and anybody is free to disagree!
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
- #65,484
- Jan 30, 2013 12:26pm Jan 30, 2013 12:26pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Agree maybe the sentence above was a bit blunt, but without disrespect, I wanted to attract attention, and it worked ...
The point I wanted to make in that article it's much simpler. Of course you can be there and hope to beat HFT algorithms and human emotions, but that's not the catch.
The main point is that participation at key setups and levels move the markets not news. Participation creates the patterns that are completed by news. I am talking about patterns on daily and weekly timeframes. Of course news can skew the 15min or even 4-hour...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,485
- Jan 30, 2013 1:33pm Jan 30, 2013 1:33pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
Although you make some very good points, I have to disagree that news only completes the pre-determined patterns. Perhaps you are referring to news that does not have long running impact. For example, a slightly higher than expected retail sales number may be supportive for a buy, but if PA is bearish then the news will drive price up to the next resistance level and the sellers will jump in and drive price down. However, long term impact fundamentals are what ultimately drive trends and the technical patterns you see on the higher time frame...
"News is relevant only when it contributes to break sequences of measured moves induced by Program Trading on the larger timeframes, i.e. daily and weekly. But very rarely news is capable of doing that: what can really change market direction is huge and coordinated participation from smart money and/or central banks. For instance, the S&P500 was turned higher twice in the last 3 years: the first time in March 2009 and the second time in May-July 2011 by the intervention of the FED with Quantitative Easing initiatives."
So I agree with your disagreement.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
- #65,486
- Jan 30, 2013 1:52pm Jan 30, 2013 1:52pm
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #65,488
- Jan 31, 2013 1:34am Jan 31, 2013 1:34am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,489
- Jan 31, 2013 2:13am Jan 31, 2013 2:13am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
Although you make some very good points, I have to disagree that news only completes the pre-determined patterns. Perhaps you are referring to news that does not have long running impact. For example, a slightly higher than expected retail sales number may be supportive for a buy, but if PA is bearish then the news will drive price up to the next resistance level and the sellers will jump in and drive price down. However, long term impact fundamentals are what ultimately drive trends and the technical patterns you see on the higher time frame...
- #65,491
- Jan 31, 2013 3:16am Jan 31, 2013 3:16am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
So far a very narrow range with the action around the PVP peaks / MR 1 & the DP. I was hoping my buy off the DP would go back to the MR 1 area, but two hits on the day's open level told me to bank what was on offer.
I'll go out now, which will ensure some volatility arrives soon
I'll go out now, which will ensure some volatility arrives soon
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #65,492
- Jan 31, 2013 3:21am Jan 31, 2013 3:21am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
So far a very narrow range with the action around the PVP peaks / MR 1 & the DP. I was hoping my buy off the DP would go back to the MR 1 area, but two hits on the day's open level told me to bank what was on offer.
I'll go out now, which will ensure some volatility arrives soon
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #65,494
- Jan 31, 2013 5:39am Jan 31, 2013 5:39am
If we see a move below 32 within the next 30min...we may see a move back to 3505...but as u say tight stop is a must...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
- #65,496
- Edited 8:26am Jan 31, 2013 6:06am | Edited 8:26am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
- #65,497
- Jan 31, 2013 6:41am Jan 31, 2013 6:41am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Damn you missed it. E/U just spiked down to 1.17 and came back up again
Great, then you can send my usual 25% fee to my account in the Cayman Islands
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #65,498
- Jan 31, 2013 6:52am Jan 31, 2013 6:52am
- | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: nothing new under the sun | 1,428 Posts
Damn you missed it. E/U just spiked down to 1.17 and came back up again
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
- #65,499
- Jan 31, 2013 6:56am Jan 31, 2013 6:56am
- | Commercial User | Joined Nov 2012 | 3,178 Posts
oh PT,come on,price not reaching 1.17 must be a real trauma to u.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
- #65,500
- Jan 31, 2013 6:56am Jan 31, 2013 6:56am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2013 | 1,169 Posts
Exactly.
Without the existence of those, the short term trend following algos and the likes could easily drive the euro to 2.0 and knowone even cares to ask why. Retail will always be a seller when markets go up because of the mean reversion mindset and thinking of getting a bargain of a lifetime by trying to call a long term top. To a simple human nature it just doesnt make sense to ride the short term trend with very shallow dips.
Someone has to kill the trend. The higher highs/lows.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."