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Sonic R. System

  • #43,561
  • Jan 30, 2013 7:35am Jan 30, 2013 7:35am
SLV break out up.. Long ovedued..Bullish indeed..






Sonic
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  • #43,562
  • Edited 9:16am Jan 30, 2013 8:26am | Edited 9:16am
Market Comment:

Not doing much. FOMC Statement is awaited. So, while there might be more action late today, after FOMC, maybe the big show starts tomorrow thru Friday. Come to think of it, after FOMC later today, since all but US markets will be closed, this could be an excellent time for the US MMs to manipulate market prices to more favorably accomodate building their positions. It might be good to wait until after FOMC, late in the day, and see just what the US MMs do.....

For example, look what MMs are doing with AU. You can see on M5 how each time the MMs worked the price to the "bottom" they dramatically increased their trading! This is buying! So, when FOMC is overwith and the US MMs pretty much have the market to themselves, they might further work the prices of whatever they are interested in, to favor positions they are building.

Edit: (about 15 minutes later) you can see they took price down to about the lower whole number! High volume buying down there, too! Between the first posting and this edit, I entered a long at 1.0410. See, should have waited a few more minutes for MMs to complete the drive down to the whole number area. When price hit RDL, I jumped, ....too soon. But still, my price ain't bad if this up and soars over next days.
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  • #43,563
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:46am Jan 30, 2013 8:46am
Hey TAH, I noticed that while the original system states that this system is supposed to be traded on the M15 TF, you seem to trade this system on multiple TF's? Have you found that this system works evenly on all TF's or are there some TF's that are better than others? Also, what do you do if signals on different TF's conflict? Say you see a good setup on the 1HR chart, but the M15 chart is showing a movement the opposite direction?
  • #43,564
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:47am Jan 30, 2013 8:47am
Long UCad, SL 1.0012, EP 1.0045
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Keep Simple...!
  • #43,565
  • Jan 30, 2013 8:57am Jan 30, 2013 8:57am
AU: Just added to the group of longs.
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  • #43,566
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:02am Jan 30, 2013 9:02am
Quoting Jon Reed
Hey TAH, I noticed that while the original system states that this system is supposed to be traded on the M15 TF, you seem to trade this system on multiple TF's? Have you found that this system works evenly on all TF's or are there some TF's that are better than others? Also, what do you do if signals on different TF's conflict? Say you see a good setup on the 1HR chart, but the M15 chart is showing a movement the opposite direction?
It is not so much actual trading on different TFs as it is looking at the strength of the situation as viewed on different TFs. Certainly, M15 should normally give best scrutiny for entry. But sometimes M15 PA looks to far gone to consider entry. What about re-entry? Looking at larger TF might make re-entry look good to do. That sort of thing.
  • #43,567
  • Edited 9:40am Jan 30, 2013 9:10am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting kotlt
Long UCad, SL 1.0012, EP 1.0045
Kotlt, I hope you don't mind my commenting. I am just trying to help. Your entry seems late, quite a bit late. Yeah, it could continue up, but with FOMC later any upside might be subject to retrace. A better EP might be had later, or in next asian session.....

Edit: (Updated chart) Also, note your entry is near a local S&R (red line). You did not wait for PA to test and react to S&R ( finally rejected at half number natural SR area). It might go thru, come back and bounce up= EP, or it might fail, drop lower and build for next move up and thru (which is what looks like is happening, maybe due to FOMC later).

Foxybunny makes good point. In being conservative, trying to let PA run beyond previous S&R or H/Ls, some of your entries are way too late. If you have a real good wave, try and enter close to Dragon. Rule says "...at least a few pips beyond candle out of dragon....", which you can tighten up even further on a real good wave. This will also help cut losses if SL gets hit.
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  • #43,568
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:14am Jan 30, 2013 9:14am
Quoting traderathome
It is not so much actual trading on different TFs as it is looking at the strength of the situation as viewed on different TFs. Certainly, M15 should normally give best scrutiny for entry. But sometimes M15 PA looks to far gone to consider entry. What about re-entry? Looking at larger TF might make re-entry look good to do. That sort of thing.
O, ok, thanks for the clarification
  • #43,569
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:23am Jan 30, 2013 9:23am
GU: A new setup. But with FOMC looming later, this could now range. And if MMs like FOMC Statement, they might do another retrace for longs before next leg up.....
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  • #43,570
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:25am Jan 30, 2013 9:25am
Quoting traderathome
Kotlt, I hope you don't mind my commenting. I am just trying to help. Your entry seems late, quite a bit late. Yeah, it could continue up, but with FOMC later any upside might be subject to retrace. A better EP might be had later, or in next asian session.....

TAH has said the one Main Key Point.

Was hoping Kotlt to figure it out himself by looking and analysing his last 5 trades. There could be other points as well to think about.
  • #43,571
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:54am Jan 30, 2013 9:54am
GU Comment:

The market seems to still be working the price up. Not rapidly, but with the up/down swinging that enhances position building by MMs. It is interesting that this is still going on, what with FOMC Statement still hours away. If building long, you'd think the MMs would not be pushing price up on themselves.

Maybe they are encouraging others to go long. Others that will put SLs on their trades. Then after FOMC, MMs whip prices down momentarily, and steal all those trades? Be careful! It looks like MMs are making the gap closing effort now to suck in longs, as many as they can knowing lots of SLs will be sitting ducks later!

Warning: Speculative!
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  • #43,572
  • Jan 30, 2013 10:00am Jan 30, 2013 10:00am
Quoting traderathome
Kotlt, I hope you don't mind my commenting. I am just trying to help. Your entry seems late, quite a bit late. Yeah, it could continue up, but with FOMC later any upside might be subject to retrace. A better EP might be had later, or in next asian session.....

Edit: (Updated chart) Also, note your entry is near a local S&R (red line). You did not wait for PA to test and react to S&R ( finally rejected at half number natural SR area). It might go thru, come back and bounce up= EP, or it might fail, drop lower and build for next move up and thru...
Thank you,

Yes, i think i entered a bit late, and i think price may go up again. I'm looking at least R:R 1:1 this trade. Look like i am overtrading, i had bad trades this week . If this trade hit SL, i will take a rest...

Quote
TAH has said the one Main Key Point.

Was hoping Kotlt to figure it out himself by looking and analysing his last 5 trades. There could be other points as well to think about.
Yeah, bad trades, but it's a part of this forex game.
Keep Simple...!
  • #43,573
  • Jan 30, 2013 10:20am Jan 30, 2013 10:20am
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

Friggin' SMs are boring, the way they work every last cent out of this piece of shit. Been holding it up, pumping it up, for ages. You'd think they'd have enough shorts now to be appeased. Or, are they still stuck in long positions they just can't get rid of, no matter how high they pump it? Their greed, or fear, whichever is causing them to control pricing in the manner that they have been doing, is getting monotonously boring....

......and by the looks of it, they are going to just keep doing this crap all the way to Friday and NFP relaease. Heck, they'll probably hike the price to 1.3500-1.3550 for the event.

It is getting to the point that it appears the SM mentality is that by continuously hiking EU, no matter what, other folks will be deceived and jump in long. That would, of course, enable SM to get rid of more of its longs. But maybe folks are thinking differently, and SM is just to full of itself, and arrogant to see it. The higher SM hikes the price, the more others see the desperation in SM to get somebody, anybody, to take it's longs off it's hands!
Quoting traderathome
EU: Check the weekly. It is why I suggested yesterday that EU might get rammed above the upper whole number (1.3500) area, and maybe further. By further, the weekly suggests the next area is the 1.3575 area.
EU:

Here it is, in the 1.3575 area now. So what happens next? Another pump after FOMC? Or, is this the event that finally puts the pin in this ridiculously overblown balloon? (Weekly chart is from previoius post. H1 shows subsequent rise.)
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  • #43,574
  • Edited 12:01pm Jan 30, 2013 11:50am | Edited 12:01pm
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Quoting traderathome
GU: Although your post was eleven hours ago, I do agree. Look at H1. Easy to see that when MMs moved the price below SR they went "all out" to gobble it up,....twice! In retrospect, this was the purpose of the gap down at the open of the week. MMs were using every tool to get the price down for their feeding frenzy. And now the dragon is angling up, PA is above it, and the Trend Line is leveling off after the 500+ pips drop.

RDH and RWH are converged, and are the top of a single days range. And this is only Wednesday! This means that...

Thought I'd post as a few people PM'd me on the above analysis (or my original comment). The above analysis is great for SM or MM analysis, however I've been around a while and see things slightly differently!
Not to disagree with TAH here as I said the above is great. But to simplify my point of view, please see the below charts and where I'll be looking for a sonicR setup for a re-entry... Or an exit. Let's see how it plays! Either way initial trade is already 100 pips up.

Thanks,
B

1.5800 is weekly S&R by the way. Very important decision area hence the initial reaction from retail and hedgers.
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  • #43,575
  • Jan 30, 2013 12:37pm Jan 30, 2013 12:37pm
GU Comment:

This has the look of a horse in a race, the jockey intentionally holding the steed back! About 45 minutes to FOMC Statement,....just a few furlongs to go. Then, the explosive sprint out of the final corner to the finish line beyond!
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  • #43,576
  • Jan 30, 2013 12:46pm Jan 30, 2013 12:46pm
hi master TAH, i'm new comer here (but have read this thread for couple months), want to ask, when will you release your last template ? can the control panel have an option to be located on the subwindow? hope you understand my english

thank you in advance if you answer me.
  • #43,577
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:05pm Jan 30, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting serikaya
hi master TAH, i'm new comer here (but have read this thread for couple months), want to ask, when will you release your last template ? can the control panel have an option to be located on the subwindow? hope you understand my english

thank you in advance if you answer me.
No. The Control Panel will remain where it is. Though, I will think on this more, relative to any subsequent release.
  • #43,578
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:07pm Jan 30, 2013 1:07pm
FOMC almost here, guesses on direction?
  • #43,579
  • Jan 30, 2013 1:42pm Jan 30, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting traderathome
No. The Control Panel will remain where it is. Though, I will think on this more, relative to any subsequent release.
ok, thanks master
  • #43,580
  • Jan 30, 2013 9:17pm Jan 30, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting scuderia
GU enter short. I wanna ask to Master sonic and TAH. is this situation is a valid sonic r setup? Well if in the H1 and i think the majot trend is still down.
However in M15 the dragon is up pretty well.

so far what i trade is good enough. but it hardly reach my TP and SL. I always kind of broke the trade before it reach it. example yesterday i short on EU and pot 30 pips. but it went up during the NY session. it dun reach my TP which is 50. if i dun break the trade it reach my SL which is 20.
Well it dun hit my TP but i pot 20 pips on this. intervention the trade.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
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