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  • #921
  • Jan 29, 2013 1:46pm Jan 29, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting lors
Paul,

Thank you for the confirmation. I really appreciate the feedback.

Everyone,

Are you working successfully with this system yourself, is anyone else? I am trying hard not to be a sceptic, as I would love to have this system work for me, but everything I have learnt this far has told me that there is not a one system fits all approach. As I say I am testing it and I really want to make sure I test correctly for myself to give this one a fair chance as a lot of people seem to be commenting on it and I assume using it.

I see lots...
Lors,
Silat50 makes for good reading I suggest reading some of his posts regarding the system. Indicators are more for the use of helping with continuation and confirmation of the signal. It will help you decide which signal is the stronger and therefore a better trade. Continuation of the trend so you don't lose out. I have tried everything from gurus and robots, can tell you this is a very good system. As long as you stay disciplined and figure what you are most comfortable with.
Paul
  • #922
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:06pm Jan 29, 2013 8:06pm
EGG ON MY FACE TONIGHT:

Do any of you remember just a couple of weeks ago or so, I said I personally will not be going short ANYTHING against the JPY. Why? Because clearly all jpy pairs are in a raging historic uptrend, and most of all the PM of Japan said himself that he is going to manipulate this currency to fall. When someone with trillion sof dollars tells you they are going to manipulate a stock, or forex pair, or your underwear or whatever so you cant win..............ONLY AN IDIOT WOULD GO AGAINST THAT!

Well......meet the idiot. I went short the gbp/jpy yesterday and was just stopped for a 91.6 pip loss on 1 contract. And im drowning in my nzd/jpy position for which I have 2 contracts. Lets have a hand for Silat, THE FOOL OF THE WEEK!



Let us all learn a lesson from this rediculous blunder. This was my biggest mistake of the year. Paul says you need filters. Well, if the PM of Japan telling you hes not letting the yen go up not the best filter you ever got in your life, I dont know what is. But yuh know what people....it would hurt twice as much if those trades were not in the system requirements.
  • #923
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:11pm Jan 29, 2013 8:11pm
IM LONG AUD/USD:

After that doji and now an engulphing bar, I think this could be the best play of the week! Especially if you notice, most AUD pairs are looking to turn and its brother the CAD is leading it! Look for lots of plays to trigger on the cad pairs and the AUD pairs. I will be in 1/2 of em. If we lose we lose. Since its pulling back in the asian session you can even get into the aud/usd now, and for the super aggressive of you, add another lot after it breaks the high of the day or previous day....whichever is higher!!!!! (Silat rule #6423 on page 94 of the manual.) lol
  • #924
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:22pm Jan 29, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting Silat50
IM LONG AUD/USD:

After that doji and now an engulphing bar, I think this could be the best play of the week! Especially if you notice, most AUD pairs are looking to turn and its brother the CAD is leading it! Look for lots of plays to trigger on the cad pairs and the AUD pairs. I will be in 1/2 of em. If we lose we lose. Since its pulling back in the asian session you can even get into the aud/usd now, and for the super aggressive of you, add another lot after it breaks the high of the day or previous day....whichever is higher!!!!! (Silat...
that engulfing candle on the bounce of the 50 fib. that will go all the way up, maybe to the 1.05957 area. id jump but got four opens right now.
  • #925
  • Jan 29, 2013 10:42pm Jan 29, 2013 10:42pm
Folks,

Please forgive me for posting this chart here, but a couple of you have emailed me privately asking for my take on Harmonic fibonacci trading and I wanted to show you the charts and software I use for it. If anyone has any backtesting experience with the 4 main set ups and can give me stats, please contact me by PM. i AM ESPECIALLY INTERESTED IN 4 hr and daily charts as I believe the rest are a waste of time.

Disclaimer:THIS CHART HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 7 SYSTEM. I do not currently trade Harmonic patterns like this. Not because they dont work but I have no time or money to spend back testing them over long periods. I am already overwhelmed with the 2 systems Im working on now. I had been at break even with the 4 main patterns after 3 months and got bored with it. If these charts are what others work with ,either with or without the 7 system, PM me as I said. To those who dont understand these patterns, it is saying the GBP is going up. 1st tgt is the 2nd triangles highest peak. 2nd target is the 1st triangles even higher peak. I wish I had another place to post it but you guys wouldnt see it.

Personally I wouldnt trade the 7 system for harmonic trading for anything. One is completely rigid, the other(the 7) allows you to pick and choose and even eventually tweak it.)

[SIZE="3"]Also I am going to be starting another 7 thread in which only I can post initially, and Im going to use it to take ask questions and take polls. I think it will be an incredible way to learn. I shall keep you all posted.[/size]
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  • #926
  • Feb 1, 2013 2:45am Feb 1, 2013 2:45am
Hi, I have been reading all the posts and really trying to take everything in, and I have noticed that this system (as with most in trading) is cyclical and has its good times and bad. I dont know if you are able to help, but hope that you can. Are we currently in a 'good' period for the system. I only ask as I have only done one week of testing but have made over 500 pips, and in an ideal world I would like to test further, but both Silat and Paul seem to be advocates of this, and so it would appear that this may be a system worth going live on, while the times are good. The reason that timing is so important is that I do not want to go live at a lean time and then get put off and say that this just didn't work. I appreciate that this post is not directly related to the system, but would appreciate feedback. After this post I promise trade related posts only!
Lors
  • #927
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:13am Feb 1, 2013 5:13am
Quoting lors
Hi, I have been reading all the posts and really trying to take everything in, and I have noticed that this system (as with most in trading) is cyclical and has its good times and bad. I dont know if you are able to help, but hope that you can. Are we currently in a 'good' period for the system. I only ask as I have only done one week of testing but have made over 500 pips, and in an ideal world I would like to test further, but both Silat and Paul seem to be advocates of this, and so it would appear that this may be a system worth going live on,...
Lors,
I like the simplicity of the system and it works for me. I'm comfortable with it and do live trade with it. Going live is up to you. You have to be comfortable and confident with the system to go live. Get a game plan with the system try it out demo wise and then once your confident with it then go live. It's up to you no one else lol. Good luck!
Paul
  • #928
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:45am Feb 1, 2013 7:45am
Just thought I would post this, these have been my last weeks trades as per my log.....my mains are closed but still have my partials running. About 400 pips.....nice!! Just wish I had been live and not in demo mode

(let me know if you cant see my attachment......trying for the first time)
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  • #929
  • Feb 2, 2013 9:41am Feb 2, 2013 9:41am
IMPORTANT POST ON THE OTHER SEVEN THREAD: Guys, you have to read my post #114-15 on the other 7 system plays thread. I give a huge lesson that took me many years to learn why this GBP/USD short is so good and also the different ways to play it and the way our "opponents" will view it are all there!

I wanted to post it here but its all good. 2 charts enclosed also. 2 huge trades. Cant wait for sunday night... Just to see how we break from the gait with this baby!
  • #930
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:29pm Feb 3, 2013 1:29pm
Thanks Silat, just read the post on the other thread......
Lors
  • #931
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:10pm Feb 3, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting lors
Thanks Silat, just read the post on the other thread......
Lors
2 PROBABLE SCENARIOS ON THIS GBP/USD short-


1-It just wafles around leaving 2 small box like bars with half the size made up of wicks and stems. (No,not Guns and Roses, that's a band.) Slightly bullish and it gains 25-45 pips over next 2 days. If that happens,I am NOT moving my stop. I want them to take me out if the REAL bar. They are not taking me out with an 80 point wick and then crumble down 350 pips. You guys CAN PLAY BY THE RULES AND SHOULD.

2-It just starts dropping like a rock right from the open. For me the open is 6:30. The volume is too low to even see the daily bar till then sometimes.

Im not moving my bar down until significant action has taken place. I will wait two days. That is nt just another ordinary bar, that bar is the pivot of the entire move down, the most pronounced push the bears have give this whole run some of us have been in already. I'd study the chart and see how I could have captured most of that down move by maybe staying in one bar a little over the band and re-entering on another bar when it turned red after going past previous days low of prior green bar. We must study trends like this and try to see how max dollars could have been extracted from them...and then maybe leave the system and start our own once we can. My door is always open for fresh ideas.

  • #932
  • Feb 3, 2013 4:57pm Feb 3, 2013 4:57pm
Silat50,
Re: Continuation entries.
See below part of email sent to Paul in late Jan which relates to your latest post


The biggest deficiency as I see, and you have posted on this, is after
getting stopped out of a trade you get a continuation of the previous trend
without showing a re-entry as per the rules. I have attached a couple of the
same charts to highlight this for your consideration, and will welcome your
thoughts as the best way to formulate a rule on these continuation trades.
It goes without saying that you will have had ( if taking the signal) a
losing trade prior to this continuation setup, and it would depend on your
exit strategy as to where it is best to re-enter. I have mentioned 3
different scenarios on the chart, break of high/low resulting in loss, close
outside the bands or a break and close over/under resistance/support.

Example: If you are closed out of a winning trade with a close of candle
inside the bands and enter a trade in the opposite direction that gets
stopped out without having a candle close outside the opposite band then:
(a) Re-enter in original direction if price breaks above the most recent HH
or LL
or
(b) Re-enter if a candle closes above/below the bands in the direction of
the winning trade ( My favoured)
or
(c) Re-enter if a candle closes above/below a support/resistance line formed
since the closure of the winning trade.

Another couple of points for your thoughts.

Notes (1) on chart.
If a candle has a close just outside the band (very close), therefore not
giving an entry as per the rules, and price breaks into the band, you may at
your discretion enter the trade based on price action.
and
Note(2)
Do not move original stop before (a) 3 candles have completed
or (b) 100 pips in profit
then (c) Move stop to high
low of last candle and continue doing this till stopped out or manually
closing trade at desired TP

Have a look back at some charts and see what you think of these 2. (1)
allows for an aggressive entry and with (2) I have noticed that after a
reversed signal many times there is a period of congestion with price
whipsawing that would take out stops if moved too quickly.

Look forward to your reply,
Greg
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  • #933
  • Feb 3, 2013 5:16pm Feb 3, 2013 5:16pm
Gregben,
I'm using ur continuation (favorite) with usdcad going short. Let's see how it pans out.
Paul
  • #934
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:16pm Feb 3, 2013 6:16pm
[quote=gregben;6415532]Silat50,
Re: Continuation entries.
See below part of email sent to Paul in late Jan which relates to your latest post


The biggest deficiency as I see, and you have posted on this, is after
getting stopped out of a trade you get a continuation of the previous trend
without showing a re-entry as per the rules.

Ahhh God you see that. When and more importantly "if" you should re-entry is what is going to take the longest work, back and forward testing for this system. But yes, I agree, it is very important. I hope you read my analysis for the GBP/USD trade I took tonight because that is a perfect example. And yes, why should I get in on a huge bar and then because of 2 small pull back days not have enough room to let this trade run and get stopped out. On the other hand because yopu are starting off with so much more room than usual, why not take 2 trades. One at the high of the candle and then one about 1/2 way down which is still plenty of room. And again on that one where you taske less risk by setting stop only 1/2 way up, you can also not get in right away and put a sell stop under the lowest candle of the swing 15658, 5-6 candles away. Then you cover the whole pivot and maybe even the whole area. But this trade has an unusuallly large size candle so we must prepare from more normal situations too. Yes, I like that chart you provided. I will give it a good look over during the off hours and get back to yu.

Thanks Greg. Great work! I would like to at some point have an exact system we follow to do re,entries with no guesswork because one bad day can cost the whole month when you let in guesswork as Im sure weve ALL found out. But yeah, this system has more power than we think by 1- not moving the stop too soon and 2- learning when to re-enter.
  • #935
  • Feb 3, 2013 6:44pm Feb 3, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting paul821c
Gregben,
I'm using ur continuation (favorite) with usdcad going short. Let's see how it pans out.
Paul
REAL MEN SHORT EARLY:

Paul, now youre getting into that cad short? you should have been in and out twice already. when you saw those 2 spiking bars at the very top, you sit your whole family down and go "look, you see these 2 pins that look like upside down thumbtacks?" they all go "yeah....so?" you then say...."TAKE MY MOUSE UNCLE PHIL. sCROLL OVER THE LAST 2 YEARS OF US CAD CHARTS. LET ME KNOW WHEN YOU FIND 3 OF THEM TOGETHER LIKE THAT" Then you go take a nap. Now you come back 45 min later and uncle phil is ready to rip the eyes out of your head." What is this nonsense???? So...I looked for 24 months and never doers that pattern happen 3 times. now what?" you sit uncle phil back down and say, well...your nephew paul is about to make us all very rich. take all the money you and your bbothers have in the bank, and we are going to short this thing as soon as it breaks thru one of those black bands. uncle phil you cant lose,because as you saw, it never happened any other time. so " so uncle phil and his 3 brothers get 2 or 3 mill in a brokerage acct managed by you and you short all their money. say 20 full size contracts on usd/cad. then the next day all of them come to your house and watch the action. you tell your uncles...."Im going to take a nap, wake me up at 5pm or when this daily bar passes another bar. "why,dont you want to sit and watch with us.?" you gotta play thius cool, paul. so you go............"naaaaaahhhh, I did this 5 times already. I already know where its going to close." and then you go into your room, take the mirror and all the herbal festivities out from under the bed, and you start smoking,toking and 8 balling till the day is done.. then, you slap yourself in the face a few times to pretend you were alseep, and you very boredly ask..........so where did that bar finish today ,uncle? Then bend over...stick your head _______. and pray he gives you any answer on the earth but one " a little higher than the last candle. is that good?"
  • #936
  • Feb 3, 2013 7:03pm Feb 3, 2013 7:03pm
Quoting Silat50
REAL MEN SHORT EARLY:

Paul, now youre getting into that cad short? you should have been in and out twice already. when you saw those 2 spiking bars at the very top, you sit your whole family down and go "look, you see these 2 pins that look like upside down thumbtacks?" they all go "yeah....so?" you then say...."TAKE MY MOUSE UNCLE PHIL. sCROLL OVER THE LAST 2 YEARS OF US CAD CHARTS. LET ME KNOW WHEN YOU FIND 3 OF THEM TOGETHER LIKE THAT" Then you go take a nap. Now you come back 45 min later and uncle phil is ready to rip the eyes...
Lol between you and silat with these anologies. Had usdcad short on 1/29 got stopped out at the end of week. it maybe bouncing off of the 50 fib and then hopefully goes back to the downtrend.
  • #937
  • Edited 8:23pm Feb 3, 2013 7:31pm | Edited 8:23pm
I have taken Silat's tip and entered short both GBPUSD and GBPAUD. I will add to the position if it retraces say 40/50 pips. Both of my filters say that this downward trend has potential to fall much further. Time will tell!!!

I am also going to take an aggressive ( not by 7 rules ) short trade on the GBPJPY if/when it crosses below the upper band. The stop above the high will only cost about 40 pips so worth the risk.
My reasons for the trade:
(1) My filters support the trade
(2) The Pound is extremely weak against all other crosses and it is only the Japanese's governments desire for a weaker yen that is supporting this pair. I am hoping that this pair will align with the other crosses and head south. Worth 40 pips risk.

Gregben
  • #938
  • Feb 3, 2013 8:08pm Feb 3, 2013 8:08pm
Hi
i don't want to disappoint you for short GBPUSD entry but this level is not OK it's better waiting to get the Daily Resistance of Last week then open short position without stress 1.5865/85 this area is very good for short and collect T/P around 1.5530 till the end of week for AUDUSD 1.04520/35 is ok for short position cause it must go toward 1.0383
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #939
  • Feb 4, 2013 5:31am Feb 4, 2013 5:31am
Hey Guys

GREGBEN

I stumbled across this site by accident.

I have not read the thread or the entry rules as I have my own system I trade similar but differant. I'm actually replying to a comment made earlier by gregben. No entry for a 1000 pips I beg to differ, you could have been in most of the trade if you followed price. I have attached a screen shot with my entry and exit rules.
As mentioned earlier I do not know your entry or exit rules and I only trade the H4 and the GJ isn't one of the pairs I trade, however the oppertunity was there to collect additional pips quite a few too.
I have a 10EMA high and Low on my chart that I use to trail price one candle back with a buffer below or above the 10EMA, in this screen shot I used a 50pip buffer below the 10 EMA low which I think will be sufficient for a daily chart and resulted in a nice profit of 1226 pips.
It might be worth your while to check it out.

This system works on all TF I really like the EurAud. First TP be realistic and move to BE and the second half follow price for as long as it wants to run and by moving it up everyday you also reduce your risk.

Well I appologise if I have overstepped on someones turf but it is a shame that you lost out on a 1000 pips.

All the best
JNS
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  • #940
  • Feb 4, 2013 6:30am Feb 4, 2013 6:30am
Jns,
Thankyou for your post.
The chart you refer to was not a trade that I took as I to, only came accrosss this thread and system just prior to Xmas. What it was for ( the chart) was to show in backtesting what I believed to be a deficiency in the original system when you are closed out of a position only to see a continuation of that trend without presenting another entry as per the original.
A few members of this forum are in the process of trying to update and formulate new rules to make this an even better system.
I will study your method when time permits, and may even find it has merit and be used in any rule changes that may occur.
Regards,
Gregben
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