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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #65,401
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:07am Jan 29, 2013 3:07am
Quoting gone4pips
making my first post in this thread after after nearly one year reading and trying to learn from you guys.
Just opened a long position @1.3432, looks like the price is going to keep on playing the 1.347X-1.342X range.
Comments appreciated.
Congrats on your first post
Congrats on your long position.

My comment on your post: It works until it breaks out... most likely to the upside. At least that is the expectation, but when the majority expect it to go north, then paradoxically, it goes south.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,402
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:09am Jan 29, 2013 3:09am
I won't be around this morning as I am heading out for a nice hike on this bright and sunny day. It's a slow news morning anyway. I'll be back for the NY session.

All those playing the range, best of luck and many green pips.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,403
  • Jan 29, 2013 3:17am Jan 29, 2013 3:17am
Quoting PipTrapper

My comment on your post: It works until it breaks out... most likely to the upside. At least that is the expectation, but when the majority expect it to go north, then paradoxically, it goes south.
I do expect the it to go the north as well but I won't believe it untill I see it
  • #65,404
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:07am Jan 29, 2013 4:07am
Quoting gone4pips
I do expect the it to go the north as well but I won't believe it untill I see it
its pretty certain to go up, however, it may pull back to the top of the previous range, around the 1.3380 area before it continues the uptrend (this also corresponds to the the 1HR 200 SMA. You nailed the perfect long entry for this current range, however, if it does pull back dont give up hope. If your stops are tight and you get taken out that position, dont be afraid to re-enter long at a better price. If your style includes large stops, keep that 200 SMA area in mind. Cheers.
  • #65,405
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:14am Jan 29, 2013 4:14am
Quoting nathan25x
its pretty certain to go up, however, it may pull back to the top of the previous range, around the 1.3380 area before it continues the uptrend (this also corresponds to the the 1HR 200 SMA. You nailed the perfect long entry for this current range, however, if it does pull back dont give up hope. If your stops are tight and you get taken out that position, dont be afraid to re-enter long at a better price. If your style includes large stops, keep that 200 SMA area in mind. Cheers.
Thanks for the advise, I have already closed the long and I made nice pips out of it. Now I'm waiting for a better long entry
  • #65,406
  • Jan 29, 2013 4:29am Jan 29, 2013 4:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Open a weekly chart for the E/U and place a horizontal line at 1.3673. Then scroll back in time and you will see how this level has played a significant role as resistance on a candle close basis going back many years.
On top of that, price is now sitting a few pips below the 1.3485 2012 high. If (when) it breaks, the next target will be the 113% extension at 1.3673. Add to that the clear bearish divergence than is forming on both the MacD and the RSX. That's probably what he was referring to.
Thx for the explanation
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
  • #65,407
  • Jan 29, 2013 5:49am Jan 29, 2013 5:49am
Ok all you lovers out there. Be cautious when trading the Yen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lover vs yen.JPG Size: 99 KB
  • #65,408
  • Jan 29, 2013 6:04am Jan 29, 2013 6:04am
Quoting Dan.B
Ok all you lovers out there. Be cautious when trading the Yen.
@ "lover vs. Yen"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,409
  • Jan 29, 2013 8:54am Jan 29, 2013 8:54am
Short E/U at 1.3485 with SL at 1.3505
For some reason I have some faith in the 1.30/1.35 DNT barrier option
Fingers crossed
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,410
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:03am Jan 29, 2013 9:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
Short E/U at 1.3485 with SL at 1.3505
For some reason I have some faith in the 1.30/1.35 DNT barrier option
Fingers crossed
I am with you brother.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #65,411
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:05am Jan 29, 2013 9:05am
Consumer confidence was a miss. Should take some of the air out.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #65,412
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:25am Jan 29, 2013 9:25am
Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed the 1st target printing right at previous lows, in the 79 area. That's where I see DX in the coming days maybe - as anticipated - by the end of the week.

Notice that the 79.30 area has been previous sloppy support and is here a broken line. I think there is also broken participation at those levels. Do not anticipate a reaction in that area.

Trade safe & good luck
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #65,413
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:30am Jan 29, 2013 9:30am
Quoting fibstalker
Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed...
Thanks for your analysis FibStalker
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,414
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:38am Jan 29, 2013 9:38am
At last - my Sell Limit at 1.3495 has been hit ( ~ MR 2) and the last three closed 15 min candles were high volume, spinning tops - so I hope that indecision ( profit taking) will lead to a retrace to at least the MR 1 at 3465....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,415
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:44am Jan 29, 2013 9:44am
http://charts.stocktwits.net/product...l_11750949.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,416
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:45am Jan 29, 2013 9:45am
Quoting Islander
At last - my Sell Limit at 1.3495 has been hit ( ~ MR 2) and the last three closed 15 min candles were high volume, spinning tops - so I hope that indecision ( profit taking) will lead to a retrace to at least the MR 1 at 3465....TWT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,417
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:49am Jan 29, 2013 9:49am
So we now have the highest high since November 2011 in a wide ranged, high volume semi marubozo which has not yet had any follow through.

Let's see where today closes.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 29 € 60 m 1540 gmt.gif Size: 34 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65,418
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:50am Jan 29, 2013 9:50am
From OANDA regarding the barrier.

 

  1. 1mth EUR/USD vol hit 7.4 today vs 8.0 Mon' and is 0.5 above long term lows
  2. Price action certainly reinforces recent barrier talk between 1.3500 and 1.3600
  3. Typical price action in long DNT/barrier market is to sell atm vols to offset decay
  4. Asian CB holds 1.32/1.35 DNT and has been noted EUR seller ahead of 1.3500
  5. More barriers touted 1.3525, 1.3550 and large 1.3600

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #65,419
  • Jan 29, 2013 9:51am Jan 29, 2013 9:51am
Nice one

Quoting fibstalker
Hope to make all who are long currencies towards the USD happy with this post.

This is what I see in the Dollar Index going forward. Maybe 79 hit by the end of the week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1359472549

The 80.20-30 level of resistance has been consistent and held all the time the EUR/USD was supported by the 1.3260 level.

By breaking the 79.70 level the Dollar Index confirmed the 1st...
  • #65,420
  • Jan 29, 2013 10:53am Jan 29, 2013 10:53am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
From OANDA regarding the barrier.

 

  1. 1mth EUR/USD vol hit 7.4 today vs 8.0 Mon' and is 0.5 above long term lows
  2. Price action certainly reinforces recent barrier talk between 1.3500 and 1.3600
  3. Typical price action in long DNT/barrier market is to sell atm vols to offset decay
  4. Asian CB holds 1.32/1.35 DNT and has been noted EUR seller ahead of 1.3500
  5. More barriers touted 1.3525, 1.3550 and large 1.3600

Yay Asian CB. Finally they are selling Euro instead of buying it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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