EurAnalysis

any idea when the 1.30-1.35 DNT expires ?

Careful with the buy stop on a break of 3500. Most times, DNT barriers are broken for the sake of breaking them and those big boys who do it, immediately dump the Euros they bought to get it there.

No clue but it was placed last week so I imagine it has a March expiry.

It's only 15 mins to close this hourly candle.
Last three of them create a picture of indecision, favoring bulls market whatsoever.
Every time bears start selling, they are flooded with plenty of BUY orders, drawing long tails to the bottom.
The same picture on 4H candles…

Here's a quicky eurodollar review:

Euro Rise Will Be a Problem for Euro Zone Soon

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...0128062503.jpg

At nearly $1.35, the euro is on a roll. But at $1.37 the single currency will turn into a problem.

According to Deutsche Bank, that is the so-called “pain threshold” for euro-zone economies where the strength of the euro will start to damage the competitiveness of exporters.

The actual level of the threshold does in part depend on the pace of global growth, and, of course, it varies from one euro-zone economy to the next.

But whichever way you look at it, this level is not far off, and euro-zone policy makers will soon be under pressure to bring the value of the euro back down.

The recent rally of the single currency is very much a measure of the success policymakers have had in calming the euro-zone debt crisis so far and attracting investors back into the region. Over the last six months, the euro has rallied by nearly 7% against the dollar, driven by the European Central Bank’s pledge to do all that was necessary to save the single currency.

Late last week, additional help came with news that euro-zone banks had repaid even more than the market expected of cheap ECB funding as the financial markets showed signs of returning closer to normality.

However, let’s not forget the euro was also getting help from developments outside the euro zone, as well as inside.

Pledges of further monetary easing in many other major economies and a new determination by Japan to drive its currency, the yen, lower have all helped to make the single currency look even more attractive.

Of particular note are fresh heavy outflows from Japan as domestic investors show a renewed appetite for foreign risk. At least some of these flows are being directed at weaker debtor countries in Europe, where assets have been under pressure for a considerable time and now appear cheap.

Of course, worries about the euro zone’s ability to stage a sustainable recovery remain high. A fall in Italian consumer confidence to a record low on Monday and another decline in euro-zone bank lending to private households last month are reminders of problems to come.

But those worries aren't troubling the single currency just yet, as its advance looks likely to breach $1.35 shortly.

This is likely to set alarm bells ringing though, as in his study of the “pain threshold,” Deutsche Bank’s Gilles Moec, reckons $1.37 would become a problem even if global growth accelerates to a year-on-year rate of 4.2%, from about 1.3% now, by the third quarter of this year.

This “pain threshold” differs from one country within the euro zone to the next.

Germany, as might be expected, tends to have a higher threshold. Good labor flexibility at home, more off-shore plants in low labor cost countries and high-end products that tend to have at least a passing monopoly in some markets, all make the country that much more immune to a rise in the euro.

France and Italy, by comparison, are much more susceptible, with the former having a threshold at $1.24 and the latter even lower at $1.17, suggesting that exporters in these countries are already under intense pressure.

There is one surprise story, however: Spain. Like Germany, it appears to have the ability to withstand a stronger euro.
Low labor costs and a close integration with global networks have given the country’s exporters more protection against the currency’s gyrations, according to Mr. Moec.

“Spain for instance has become Europe’s second largest car manufacturer, superseding France, and now producing three times as many cars per annum as Italy, thanks to foreign–often non-European–operators,” the Deutsche Bank analyst said.

Nevertheless, Spain and Germany aside, the rise in the euro will soon become more of a topic of concern as euro-zone policymakers decide what to do next.

At 1050 GMT, the euro traded at $1.3451, having touched a high during the day of $1.3470.

Great point..I've been there done that. The trade for me would strictly be a scalp on that principle that you point out. Entry around 1.3502/04 w/TP of 1.3518/23 Short term tiny scalp. I like to think that I've learned about being in positions above major numbers when the cross the first time... been the victim of big boys playing games before they short it...trying to avoid that trap..still have some scars.

Love the article you posted "Euro Rise Will be a Problem for Euro Zone".... now if I can just get that timing right...1.35, 1.35.50, 1.36..how high before this upswing exhausts itself. I guess I all can do is watch the charts..and leave the predictions to the gypsies and magicians.

From OANDA

Euro bulls might want to enjoy the boom time when it lasts. UBS, the world's third-biggest currency trading bank, admits the euro has now traded even higher than the bank's 1-month target of $1.33, so it now expects the euro to spike as high as $1.37 over the next few weeks. But UBS argues the dollar will win out in longer-term, keeping its 3-month target at $1.30 and its year-end call of $1.20. If that holds true, the dollar could post a 11% rally from $1.3454 recently traded. The dollar's growth engine will be US growth, which will allow the Fed to cut back on its QE3, UBS says. ([email protected])

This one?

http://digital-art-gallery.com/oid/7...igital_art.jpg

UBS strategists have obviously been following Euranalysis

I'd be more inclined to take advice from your gypsy...than this one... lol

No doubt. No wonder they are read and respected.

Hi
e/u the 144 is starting to cross the 200,up we go.

Which time frame?
Which MAs? (ema, sma, smma)
What's the significance of a 144/200 cross? Is it more significant than a 55/100 cross?

As long as I am not double crossed its all good....

Good Morning,

Yesterday i attended a live webinar presented by "Shawn Beecher", of-course at the end he was selling something like they all do but i was there for the education part which was interesting as i got some good notes ( i'm still a learning newbi ) he also showed some live trades and i loved the way he analyzes the market with simplicity.

Anyway back to eur/usd as he made alot of comment about this pair the big line that he put as next target in few weeks was 1.3670 before we'll see a reversal and thx to my connection i missed the part explaining the reason for this ...
I noticed that the priced bounced few times in the past at 1.3670 but still didn't get why it was so important as he mentioned

So does 1.3670 mean anything for you ( anyone reading this ) or it's just his point of view about the market !!

Open a weekly chart for the E/U and place a horizontal line at 1.3673. Then scroll back in time and you will see how this level has played a significant role as resistance on a candle close basis going back many years.
On top of that, price is now sitting a few pips below the 1.3485 2012 high. If (when) it breaks, the next target will be the 113% extension at 1.3673. Add to that the clear bearish divergence than is forming on both the MacD and the RSX. That's probably what he was referring to.

E/U Weekly:

on the weekly thats the next major resistance after 1.345

1.3662 is the exact midle between 61.8 and 50 % of this last Monthly down swing (from may 2011). And we know how bastards love to turn things in the midle of notable levels

making my first post in this thread after after nearly one year reading and trying to learn from you guys.
Just opened a long position @1.3432, looks like the price is going to keep on playing the 1.347X-1.342X range.
Comments appreciated.