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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #65,361
  • Jan 28, 2013 6:27am Jan 28, 2013 6:27am
Quoting halkins
Or... we will hear in evening NEWS that some trader in RBS has defrauded 100millions pounds trading risky assets without any knowledge of bank executives… heheheh
It happened in UK and in France
HaHa. I hope not. That's the last thing RBS needs right now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,362
  • Jan 28, 2013 6:27am Jan 28, 2013 6:27am
Quoting rekon67
E/U H1 chart somehow seems like spinosaurus fin.

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good one - new chart pattern
  • #65,363
  • Jan 28, 2013 6:32am Jan 28, 2013 6:32am
Quoting Black Fox
Will we ever hear from Tony Scott again? He already closed his blog.
He probably got discouraged by my posts related to his Credit Suisse positioning report...
  • #65,364
  • Edited 7:57am Jan 28, 2013 6:48am | Edited 7:57am
PT, guys...
Sorry to post non-EURUSD chart on this thread, but at this moment I think it's worth to have a look on other pairs.

Aussie got to a very interesting level now...
How do you think, which scenario is more likely to happen this week?

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  • #65,365
  • Jan 28, 2013 7:28am Jan 28, 2013 7:28am
Quoting halkins
PT, guys...
Sorry to post non-EURUSD chart on this thread, but at this moment I think it's worth to have a look on other pairs.

Aussie got to a very interesting level now...
How do you think, which scenario is more likely to happen next week?

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this week, i think shud get up to at least 0450 first then possibly 0520 - after that, don't know...
  • #65,366
  • Jan 28, 2013 7:54am Jan 28, 2013 7:54am
Quoting msood
this week, i think shud get up to at least 0450 first then possibly 0520 - after that, don't know...


You're not alone. However, I do expect the Aussie to test 0.9800 at some point this year. Could be next month and yet could be December.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,367
  • Jan 28, 2013 7:57am Jan 28, 2013 7:57am
Quoting ohenry
She's being very sneaky right now... I anticipate a tight range for the next 40min... before heading north where I suspect we will see a sell off @ around the 80 level...TWT
If this momentum carries us through to 80 in the next hour I may hold may short positions for 35xx....
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #65,368
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:03am Jan 28, 2013 8:03am
I think it's safe to say that there is no such a thing as a good U.S. data leading to a stronger dollar...
  • #65,369
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:16am Jan 28, 2013 8:16am
Quoting lumesh
I think it's safe to say that there is no such a thing as a good U.S. data leading to a stronger dollar...
I wouldn't say that statement is a definite that applies all the time. Perhaps until it becomes clear that the employment situation in the US is improving.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,370
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:18am Jan 28, 2013 8:18am
Meanwhile on the charts, I don't really expect 3480 or the 3500 barrier to hold for too lomg, but in the meantime, I see no harm in scalping short from 3473

First target is bottom of range and today's daily pivot at 1.3420/30 area where I will unload 60% of the position and let the rest ride with a trailing stop.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,371
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:21am Jan 28, 2013 8:21am
Quoting lumesh
I think it's safe to say that there is no such a thing as a good U.S. data leading to a stronger dollar...
I think Euro is re-loading to attack on last week highs...
though I think we shouldn't go higher then 1.3500.


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  • #65,372
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:36am Jan 28, 2013 8:36am
Quoting halkins
I think Euro is re-loading to attack on last week highs...
though I think we shouldn't go higher then 1.3500.


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1.3500 is supposedly being defended by deep pockets as part of the large 1.30/1.35 DNT options contracts in place, so I don't expect it to give very easily, although it probably will give eventually.

Another consideration is that the markets are at a 5 year high and buyers are no longer eager to jump in long at these levels. On top of that, 1.3480/85 is the 50% fibo of the move from the May 2011 highs to the July 2012 lows. Add to that the psychological round number figure of 1.3500 and it leads one to believe that 1.3400 will likely be tested before 1.3500

As such I stand by my intraday short position from 3473, and swing long positions from 3360/70/80

ADD: I must add that after those amazing US data releases for Durable goods orders, the USD should be relatively well supported.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,373
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:49am Jan 28, 2013 8:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
1.3500 is supposedly being defended by deep pockets as part of the large 1.30/1.35 DNT options contracts in place, so I don't expect it to give very easily, although it probably will give eventually.

Another consideration is that the markets are at a 5 year high and buyers are no longer eager to jump in long at these levels. On top of that, 1.3480/85 is the 50% fibo of the move from the May 2011 highs to the July 2012 lows. Add to that the psychological round number figure of 1.3500 and it leads one to believe that 1.3400 will likely be...
But it's going to look so sweet to have a false 50% Fibo breakout tail on daliy candle...
It's many SL's above 1.3478 so it might be taken easily to 1.3500 and then bang... falling down.
We'll see after 3pm
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  • #65,374
  • Jan 28, 2013 8:57am Jan 28, 2013 8:57am
Quoting halkins
But it's going to look so sweet to have a false 50% Fibo breakout tail on daliy candle...
It's many SL's above 1.3478 so it might be taken easily to 1.3500 and then bang... falling down.
We'll see after 3pm
Yep, that would be nice
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,375
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:02am Jan 28, 2013 9:02am
Quoting halkins
But it's going to look so sweet to have a false 50% Fibo breakout tail on daliy candle...
It's many SL's above 1.3478 so it might be taken easily to 1.3500 and then bang... falling down.
We'll see after 3pm
Pending Home Sales much below expectations...
this may change the picture on charts
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  • #65,376
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:16am Jan 28, 2013 9:16am
Quoting halkins
Pending Home Sales much below expectations...
this may change the picture on charts
That figure is always volatile so it has very little meaning in the big picture. However, when technicals are screaming "overbought" it can have an impact... as you can see on the charts. Mind you, I still think price would have gone down anyway.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,377
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:22am Jan 28, 2013 9:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
Meanwhile on the charts, I don't really expect 3480 or the 3500 barrier to hold for too lomg, but in the meantime, I see no harm in scalping short from 3473

First target is bottom of range and today's daily pivot at 1.3420/30 area where I will unload 60% of the position and let the rest ride with a trailing stop.

Attachment
Unloaded 60% of short position for +39 pips. Setting the remainder at break even for now. May close manually later.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65,378
  • Jan 28, 2013 9:56am Jan 28, 2013 9:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
Unloaded 60% of short position for +39 pips. Setting the remainder at break even for now. May close manually later.
You nailed it today! I was screwed up a bit with that insane PA..
69
  • #65,379
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:11am Jan 28, 2013 10:11am
Interesting point in ZH concerning price "stablizeeeeeeity" and depression.

As The Euro Soars, This Is Where The "Max Pain" In Europe Is

From Douche Bank

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ax-pain-europe
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #65,380
  • Jan 28, 2013 10:29am Jan 28, 2013 10:29am
Quoting rekon67
Making some cents on E/U sell from 1.3460, not sure so just trying set it at BE, lines of Supports so unless we get a violent down move during UK and US session ... situation would be same.


Appreciate all the TA. (Almost as much as T & A) Decided to take my 24 pips on my long position earlier. Now reverse scalping a short to 3422 and will reload a long toward 1.35ish at the 1.342x levels. That's just a long way of saying I'm playing the range 1.342x to 1.348x...buy support sell resistance..until it doesn't work anymore. I do have the expectation of 1.35 breaking soon however and am looking for a buy stop up there.
Pipnosis "Mistakes are the portal of discovery." - James Joyce
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